On January 1, 2010, I wrote a diary entitled January 1, 2020: A Comprehensive Look at the 2010's I modified it a few months later, but otherwise no changes were made. So now it's time for a half-way score card.
First, the best predictions:
1. The return of Star Wars - For 2017 I wrote:
Finally, in Hollywood 75 year old George Lucas announced that there would be three more Star Wars movies. The new CGI technology perfected in Avatar and its sequel allowed Lucas to realize his vision for Episodes 7, 8, and 9 (set after the original Star Wars trilogy). The films are expected to start rolling out to coincide with the 50th anniversary of the original Star Wars (in 2027). Let's hope George hires some better script writers (and actors) this time around.
[Not bad but a bit off year wise. More of my "score card" below the fold.]
2. Obama Reelection-
In the end, Sarah Palin's dream of world domination died in Granite state, where she lost the New Hampshire primary by less than 200 votes to.......John Thune. That's right, John Thune. Thune came out of nowhere to be the leading challenger and eventual GOP nominee. He was conservative enough to appeal to the right, but unknown enough to appear inoffensive to the middle. While those on the right wanted a hard-righter (Palin or Bobby Jindal) others preferred Joe Lieberman (who did not run for reelection and had toyed with the idea of running for the GOP presidential nomination). In the end, the GOP chose the path of least resistance, selecting Indiana governor Lee Daniels.
The election lacked the drama of 2008. With an improving economy, Obama won by 10 points, 54% to 44%. Electorally, there was little state win changes. Thune took Indiana due to Daniels and also nabbed North Carolina, while Obama gained Missouri and Arizona.
[Well okay, that's not quite right, but he did win. John Thune???]
3. On Healthcare, I sort of got it right
2014
The new "healthcare reform" legislation consisted of increased subsidies (to allow more Americans to afford coverage) and a few new regulations. The biggest change was that the insurance companies finally lost their anti-trust exempt status.
[Wait, did the insurers lose their antitrust exemption? I don't think so but someone help me out here.]
4. Technology
[Much but not all of the below ended up being accurate]
2013: I picked 2013 to discuss some of the awesome technological developments of the 2010's. 2013 is a good year because in that year, a majority of American cell phone users were on a high speed network (4G/5G or Wimax). Most new cell phones were built with dual video cameras (one facing the caller), and the advent of video conferencing was at hand for most Americans. Meanwhile, almost half of all American households contained set-top internet box hard drives, which allowed people to download movies and watch youtube or Hulu videos on their televisions. Speaking of televisions, 3D tv sets, first introduced in 2011, began to plummet in price, allowing more people to view "tv as it aught to be". Still, few broadcasters put more than first run movies and top sporting events in 3D. Meanwhile, Ultra HDTV, which offered as much as 8 times the resolution of 1080P, was planning its launch (which didn't happen until 2017). And, in a sign of the times, Blockbuster closed all but a dozen of its stores (mostly in senior communities), a victim of the Red Box phenomenon and the set-top onslaught. [Actually all BBs have now been closed]
The Bad-
What I can I say, it's mostly bad midterm election predictions-
2010- The Dems lost 35 seats in the House, but only three in the Senate (South Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas and Delaware were lost, but Robin Carnahan picked it up with a big Missouri win, and Fisher won in Ohio).
2014- The Democrats lost 7 house seats, and one senate seat (Mark Begich in Alaska went down [well that did happen!]
The Crazy
The 2016 Presidential Election- This is just WEIRD! I will quote the entire prediction, with occasional comments!
The 2016 election appeared to be a great opportunity for Democrats to retain the White House and move the country in a decisively progressive direction. But who to pick for the Democratic nomination? Hillary wasn't running, but Democratic voters had a wide variety of candidates, including former DLC head Senator Harold Ford (D-NY) (who succeeded Schumer as Empire State senator) [WHAT?] and progressive hero Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI). Few noticed Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, the locally popular (but nationally unknown) South Dakota governor [I think she lost her house seat in 2010 and totally disappeared!]. Sandlin was unliked by many progressives (due to her votes on a number of issues while she was in Congress).
But she set out early on to run a populist campaign. She got some big endorsements (including popular former Montana governor Barry Schweitzer) and a well known country singer recorded "Sandlin from the Heartland". Sandlin won easily in Iowa, but narrowly lost in New Hampshire to Feingold. Following a surprise endorsement from popular first term Illinois governor Lisa Madigan (who had retaken the state for the Democrats in 2014) [ I wish!], Sandlin pulled a stunning victory in Illinois. But the race was actually decided in the state of New York. There, with a split between Ford backers and Feingold supporters, Sandlin was able to claim a narrow victory. Meanwhile, after cleaning in the Western caucus states (as Barack Obama had done in 2008), she entered the 2016 Miami Democratic Convention with a slight delegate lead. Many progressives were furious with a candidate who, as a congresswoman, had voted against healthcare reform. In order to unite the party, Feingold begrudgingly agreed to serve as Sandlin's running mate and the race was on!
The Republicans had chosen their own controversial selection. Marco Rubio, the talented (but extreme right-wing) Florida Senator, was a hero to tea party folks everywhere. Many on the right felt that the 2012 Thune/Daniels combination had not been conservative enough. Rubio dominated a weak primary field and ran up solid majorities in low turnout. To compromise with slightly more moderate GOP voters, Rubio selected Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson, who had remained in the Senate after losing to Rick Perry in the 2010 Texas governor's race.
The election campaign was filled with continuous charges, from Rubio's low-interest rate home loans to Sandlin's controversial business connections. In the end, the solid state of the economy (and Barack Obama's continued popularity) made the difference. While Rubio attracted the support of many on the far right, many in the middle were frightened of his positions. And despite, GOP claims, most Latino voters went for Sandlin, while a surprising number of southern whites voted Democratic for the first time in decades, whether lured by Sandlin's populist appeal or unwilling to vote for Rubio due to their own racism. In the end, it was a trouncing: Rubio won Florida, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia, as well as three solidly Republican western states (Idaho, Utah and Wyoming). Everything else went to Sandlin. As part of the landslide, Democrats had a field day, gaining 19 house seats and Senate seats in Nevada, Arkansas, Connecticut (with governor Ned Lamont easily winning), as well as Arizona (John McCain had retired) and Florida (Governor Alex Sink won in the seat vacated by Rubio). The Democrats now had 61 Senate seats and a solid House majority. [ if only!]
The Not-Quite-Yets
There are some things I predicted that will probably happen, but not quite yet. Here are a few.
2014:
Focus 2014: A Clear Sign of Life(?)
Possibly the most momentous event of 2014 (maybe the entire decade) was the evidence (though not quite proof) that we are not alone in the universe.
In August, NASA scientist discovered a planet (five times larger than earth) that appeared to have both water and oxygen. But what they saw next truly astounded them. They observed what looked like a moon orbiting this planet. Yet the "moon", inexplicably appeared to leave its orbit around its planet and "fly away", apparently to another nearby planet. It returned three days later. This stunning observation led scientists to announce that a "space ship" might be orbiting an earth-like planet just 27 light years away. While some in the public remained skeptical (and others were just plain terrified) most people (including President Obama) believed humans had made an historic discovery.
Focus 2018: Major League Women
Women in the 2010's continued to make progress in previously male-dominated sports, from Michelle Wie's third palce Master's finish in 2015 to Danica Patrick taking the Daytona 500 in 2014. Yet no women had broken into the big three sports (baseball, football or basketball).
That may soon change. In 2017, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Chelsea Baker [ Actually, she is dominating in high school ball (ERA around 1 last year) so this could happen], Jane Watson, and Susan Smith. Jones was a star pitcher, Watson and outfielder and Smith a catcher. Like most minor league prospects, Watson and Smith struggled their first year and were released. Jones, on the other hand starred. With befuddling knuckler, she rode through A and AA ball. In 2019, she dominated in Triple-A, going 18-2 with a 1.97 ERA, and an impressive 287 strikeouts in just 201 innings). She has been invited to Dodger spring training in February. Only 21, she may need another year of seasoning. But most baseball fans are ready to see her play now. An historical moment is approaching.
Focus 2019: The Youth Rights Movement Comes of Age
It began in the 1990's, with small groups of high school students starting internet-based groups advocating youth civil rights, from lowering the voting age to ending curfews and school zero-tolerance policies. In the 2000's, organizations such as the National Youth Rights Association (NYRA) and others slowly grew in members and funds, all largely below the radar of the mainstream media. That changed big time in the 2010's. NYRA and other organizations, infused with supporters and money, began holding protests and sit-ins on youth rights issues. And the citizen journalists of the era (and eventually their mainstream media counterparts) took notice. The big youth rights issue was lowering the voting age to (at least) 16, in order to empower the millions of teens who worked and paid taxes but had no say on the issues that most effected them. In the 2000's the voting age had been lowered in a few places (Austria in 2006, Ecuador in 2008). In the 2010's that process accelerated. The UK lowered its voting age in 2010 [it may well happen by 2016, if Labour wins next year], France in 2011 and Germany in 2014. Canada joined the parade in 2017.
No, the voting age was not lowered in the United States, at least not nationally. However, some localities, from Berkeley, California to Chicago, Illinois had lowered it to 16 for local elections. Yet the growing protests began to take America by storm. The turning point for "mainstream media" interest in this movement came one warm Saturday in August, 2016. A crowd of 10,000 marched to the Lincoln Memorial to demand a lower voting age. Two (allegedly) unexpected guests joined the battle. Malia and Sasha Obama appeared at the rally. While they didn't speak on the voting age that day (and would not publicly do so until their father had left office), their appearance and apparent support made the media take notice. Within a month, Time and Newsweek had both featured cover stories covering "the Next Civil Rights Movement". A 60 Minutes feature story was not far behind. The Youth Rights Movement had arrived!
So there you have it. There are a lot more interesting predictions in the original diary, so make sure you read it!