Retiring Republican Rep. Chris Gibson
Leading Off:
• NY-19: On Tuesday morning, Republican Rep. Chris Gibson announced that he would retire from his competitive Upstate New York House seat at the end of his term. Gibson had repeatedly pledged to serve no more than four terms, but his early departure is still a surprise. We likely haven't seen the last of Gibson though, with him contemplating a 2018 statewide bid.
Obama carried New York's 19th District 52-46 in 2012, a little better than his national popular vote margin. However the largely rural Hudson Valley seat, which includes communities like Hyde Park and Cooperstown, maintains some of its ancestral Republican leanings. Gibson managed to win 53-47 even as Obama was carrying the district, and the GOP bench is quite strong here. Gibson has a reputation as a formidable campaigner and Democrats will be relieved to see him go, but this seat is no automatic pickup for the blue team.
It's far too early to say who will run here on either side, but Nick Reisman of State of Politics gives us some potential contenders. On the Democratic side Reisman names Ulster County Executive Mike Hein, whom he describes as "polished and well known." Former state Sen. Terry Gipson is another possible candidate, though he recently lost his seat by a 52-48 margin in the 2014 GOP wave.
Over at Capitol New York, Scott Waldman also mentions 2012 nominee Julian Schreibman, Saratoga Springs Mayor Joanna Yepsen, and Assemblywoman Pat Fahy as potential Democratic candidates, though Yepsen and Fahy live outside the district. 2014 nominee Sean Eldridge could also run again, though plenty of Democrats would prefer that he didn't. Gibson successfully portrayed Eldridge as a carpetbagger, and dealt him a devastating 65-35 defeat.
On the Republican side, Assemblyman Steve McLaughlin is a prospective candidate. Reisman notes that he's a well-known critic of Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, which could help with conservative primary voters. Other possible Republican contenders include Rensselaer County Executive Kathy Jimino; Assemblyman Pete Lopez; Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro; and state Sen. Jim Seward. When Molinaro was asked about a potential campaign he said his priority is serving as county executive, which isn't exactly a no.
In the coming days we should have a better sense of who's interested and who isn't. We'll definitely be watching this swingy seat all cycle at Daily Kos Elections.
Senate:
• OH-Sen: Democratic Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld has been talking about a run against Republican Sen. Rob Portman for the last few months, and it seems he's very serious about it. The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that Sittenfeld has already begun to raise money, something that he does not deny. Former Gov. Ted Strickland and Rep. Tim Ryan have also acknowledged their interest in the seat, and former Rep. Betty Sutton and outgoing Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman have not ruled anything out. Sittenfeld may be hoping that if he can start strong out of the gate, he can dissuade any of them from going for it.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Sen: On Tuesday, former state Supreme Court Justice Will Scott declared his candidacy for governor in this year's open seat race. Scott will join wealthy former Louisville Metro Councilor Hal Heiner and Agriculture Commissioner James Comer in the May 19 Republican primary.
Scott will need to play catch-up with both of his rivals in the fundraising department though. In the last quarter of 2014, Comer outraised Heiner $556,000 to $146,000. However, Heiner has largely been self-funding his campaign, and he holds a $3,467,000 to $873,000 cash-on-hand lead.
On the Democratic side, Attorney General Jack Conway raised $176,000 in the last quarter, making his total haul $1.3 million for the race. This may not sound like much for a gubernatorial contest but Conway's campaign says it's a record for a non-incumbent. Conway is the only credible Democratic candidate running, with the Jan. 27 filing deadline rapidly approaching.
Other Races:
• Chicago Mayor: Until now, the Feb. 24 primary has been seen as a battle between Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Cook County Commissioner Jesus Garcia, with Alderman Robert Fioretti a longshot to advance. However, a new name is hoping he can make a splash here. Businessman Willie Wilson recently invested $1 million of his own money into this contest, and he has the resources to spend more if he wants.
If no candidate secures a majority, the top-two contenders will advance to an April 7 runoff. Rahm's goal will be to win 50 percent plus one in February, though there haven't been any recent public polls to tell us how close or far he is. Wilson could conceivably make Rahm's task harder if he can pick up some voters who may have backed the incumbent or were planning to stay home. However, if Garcia and Wilson start training their fire on one another instead of on Rahm, that could help the incumbent. We'll just need to wait and see how this race shapes out.
Grab Bag:
• WATN: On Tuesday, former Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell was sentenced to two years in prison for corruption. McDonnell is appealing, but he is scheduled to report to jail Feb. 9.
McDonnell's once-promising political career began to self-destruct in 2013 after details about his close relationship with Star Scientific CEO Jonnie Williams came to light. Among other things, the governor was accused of taking $177,000 worth of bribes from Williams. McDonnell and his wife Maureen were indicted shortly after he left office in 2014, and he was convicted months later.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.