OK, I was clearly drunk off of my ass on Grey Goose and Remy Martin V while I was writing my last report. That diary entry had more errors than Scott Brown's Twitter feed. Rest assured that I am sober right now, and all of the spelling and grammar mistakes from last week have been fixed. Whether or not I will get drunk after reviewing the cube roots of our next three states is a different matter. Happy hour starts below the squiggle.
Part 1 -- North Dakota, South Dakota
Part 2 -- Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire
All of this week's states would gain one seat in the Cube Root Congress.
We start with President Obama's home state. Sorry, teabaggers, but it's not Kenya.
Close-up of the island of Oahu:
1st District (blue): Pretty much downtown Honolulu. This includes the town of Aiea, which is home to freshman representative Mark Takai (D). 71.1% Obama, so it is undoubtedly Safe D.
2d District (green): Most of the island of Oahu, including the Honolulu suburbs. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Honolulu) would probably run here since she currently represents pretty much everything outside of Honolulu. It's a 69% Obama district, so it's Safe D all the way.
3d District (green): The city of Kailua is the only part of Oahu that is in the Third. Of course, all of the other Hawaiian Islands also make up this new district. The good news is that this district is 74.9% Obama and is the safest Safe D in this state. The bad news is that the God-awful Ed Case (DINO) lives in Hilo, and he might be tempted to return to Congress with this available open seat.
5 Electoral Votes: Safe D
Idaho is the next state. I tried really hard to squeeze a Democratic seat out of this state, but this is the best that I could do:
1st District (blue): This snaky district stretches from Boise to Pocatello by way of Blaine County, the only county in Idaho that consistently votes Democratic anymore. What I got was a 51.7% McCain district. Democrat Walt Minnick served one term in a much more conservative district than this one, but that was because he had the great fortune of running against this absolute idiot. Now this district is controlled by Raul Labrador (R-Eagle), who has better mouth control. Ideally, this district would be Lean R, but not with an incumbent there.
2d District (green): Southern Idaho, which includes the Boise suburbs of Caldwell and Nampa, then through Twin Falls and the Pocatello suburbs. It's an open seat for whichever Republican wants it. 69.9% McCain. Need I say Safe R?
3d District (purple): Idaho Falls up to Coeur d'Alene. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) was never in any electoral danger, and he certainly wouldn't be in this 64.4% McCain district. Safe R
5 Electoral Votes: Safe R
A more realistic would look like this, though:
1st District (blue): Boise, Caldwell, and Nampa are all contained within a compact district. It's 54.3% McCain, so Labrador would have nothing to worry about... unless he pulls a Sali. Safe R
2d District (green): The western portion of the state. It looks kinda like the current 1st District. Open seat that is 61.2% McCain. Safe R
3d District (purple): Eastern and south central Idaho. Twin Falls, Poactello, and Idaho Falls are in this 69.8% McCain district. So is Rep. Simpson, and he will be for as long as he wants. Safe R
We're ending this week with Nebraska. We're now up to four seats. Although this state is reliably Republican, it is possible to get a decent gerrymander out of it.
1st District (blue): Just Omaha. No suburbs. This district is 54.2% Obama, so congressional newbie Brad Ashford (D-Omaha) should be able to serve for a long time. Lean D
2d District (green): This gerrymandered district pulls together some of the more moderate precincts in and around Lincoln, and attaches them to the Omaha suburb of Bellevue. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Lincoln) might be in some trouble in this divided district, especially if a well-funded conservative Democrat runs. John McCain narrowly missed a majority here (he got 49.5%, to be exact). I'll call it a Tossup.
3d District (purple): Basically, the eastern third of the state that is outside of Omaha and Lincoln. Lee Terry (R-Omaha), who got ousted by Ashford in November, might still be butthurt over his loss. He might decide to move to the suburbs and run here. This district is 63.5% McCain, so any Republican will win. Safe R
4th District (red): All of Nebraska's empty space. Adrian Smith (R-Gering) is safer than ever in this 69% McCain district. Safe R
6 Electoral Votes: Nebraska splits up its votes based on performance in each district. I'd say the presidential votes will pretty much align with the congressional votes. The statewide vote and the last two districts are Safe R. District 2 is a Tossup. District 1 is a Lean D.
Realistically, Nebraska's four districts would look like this:
The Bellevue-to-Lincoln connection is much more concise for the 2d District. That changes the partisan leans of the 2d and 3d Districts. The 1st and 4th Districts remain as in the gerrymandered version.
The 2d District is made slightly redder for Fortenberry. His district goes from 49.5% McCain to 50.7% McCain. That extra 1% is probably enough to make this district Lean R.
The 3d District goes from 63.5% McCain to 62.4%, which would have zero impact on whichever Republican runs here. It's still a Safe R district.
6 Electoral Votes: That tossup 2d District now becomes a Lean R, so an extra vote goes to the Republican presidential candidate. I don't think we're complaining. We still got Omaha!
We're over a quarter of the way through the Cube Root Congress... but we haven't even gotten to all of the good states yet. The fun is only beginning.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, DE, HI, ID, ME, MT, ND, NE, NH, RI, SD, VT, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 10 (added HI-1, HI-2, HI-3)
Lean D: 7 (added NE-1)
Tossup: 1 (added NE-2)
Lean R: 4 (added ID-1)
Safe R: 8 (added ID-2, ID-3, NE-3, NE-4)
Total: 17 D, 1 Toss, 12 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 9 (added HI-1, HI-2, HI-3)
Lean D: 5 (added NE-1)
Tossup: 3
Lean R: 4 (added NE-2)
Safe R: 9 (added ID-1, ID-2, ID-3, NE-3, NE-4)
Total: 14 D, 3 Toss, 13 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, DE, HI, ID, ME, MT, ND, NE, NH, RI, SD, VT, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), RI (4), VT (3) = 20
Lean D: ME (1), NE (1), NH (5) = 7
Tossup: NE (1) = 1
Lean R: MT (4) = 4
Safe R: AK (4), ID (5), ND (4), NE (4), SD (4), WY (3) = 24
Total: 27 D, 1 Toss, 28 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), RI (4), VT (3) = 20
Lean D: ME (1), NE (1), NH (5) = 7
Tossup: None
Lean R: MT (4), NE (1) = 5
Safe R: AK (4), ID (5), ND (4), NE (4), SD (4), WY (3) = 24
Total: 27 D, 0 Toss, 29 R