The DCCC is turning to 2014 lieutenant governor nominee Annette Taddeo
Leading Off:
• FL-26: Freshman Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo took this swingy but Democratic-trending Miami-area seat last year, and national Democrats are making retaking it a priority. The DCCC is already trying to recruit Annette Taddeo, who served as Charlie Crist's running mate in the recent gubernatorial contest.
Taddeo's personal electoral history isn't great. Back in 2008 Taddeo ran for Congress against Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in the old 18th District, which is about 18 percent of the current 26th. Taddeo fell far short then, losing 58-42; her 2010 campaign for Miami-Dade County commissioner also didn't go well. Still, her gubernatorial ticket did come close in the Hell year of 2014, though it would be a huge stretch to attribute that to Taddeo. She also proved to be a good fundraiser back in 2008 and Democrats will want someone who can keep pace with the well-connected Curbelo.
The party's bench isn't great in this area, where plenty of voters have begun selecting Democrats for federal races but still go red downballot. At the very least Team Blue would rather not have former Rep. Joe Garcia back; his connection to a 2012 absentee ballot fraud scheme almost certainly played a part in his recent defeat, and his party would rather focus on Curbelo's own ethics problems.
Senate:
• CA-Sen: Democratic Attorney General Kamala Harris definitely shook up this open seat race when she announced her candidacy on Tuesday, but so far other California Democrats aren't deferring to her. Rep. Loretta Sanchez, billionaire Tom Steyer, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa all made it clear that they were still considering a run even if they had to face Harris, and on Wednesday Rep. Xavier Becerra publicly expressed interest in this seat for the first time. Becerra told Roll Call's Emily Cahn that he is "seriously considering," and will make his decision based on his family's support and if he thinks he can have an impact. Becerra says he hopes to decide on a campaign within the "next few weeks."
Becerra is a high-ranking member of the House, and it's a bit surprising that he'd risk it all on a tough Senate race. Indeed, back in 2008 Becerra turned down an offer to serve as U.S. trade representative in order to stay in the House. Becerra did run for mayor of Los Angeles back in 2001 and only took 6 percent (potential Senate rival Villaraigosa was one of the candidates who outpaced him), so he hasn't always been reluctant to go for a promotion. Still, Becerra has a lot more to lose than most of his would-be opponents. If he does run, his open seat will be safe for Team Blue: Obama carried his downtown Los Angeles 34th District 83-14 percent.
Harris did get some good news on Wednesday when she earned the endorsement of Sen. Elizabeth Warren. The Massachusetts senator has a formidable fundraising list, and her support should help Harris fill her campaign coffers.
The prospective GOP field in this contest hasn't gotten nearly as much attention as the Democrats, but there are some Republicans looking at a run. Above, dreaminonempty offers us a visual guide to who's considering and who has said no. We have the
Democrats here.
• SD-Sen: It always seemed unlikely that Republican Sen. John Thune would run for president rather than seek a third term in 2016, and now we can rule out the possibility entirely. In an interview with Politico, Thune confirmed that he'll be staying put.
In 2010 Thune was re-elected with no primary or general election opposition and he should be completely safe again. The article notes that some conservative activists may take a swing at the senator, but it's hard to see them getting far. Last cycle hardline conservatives wanted to stop now-Sen. Mike Rounds but their effort fizzled out long before the primary, and there's no reason to think that they'll have better odds against Thune.
Gubernatorial:
• MS-Gov: Mississippi Democrats are not particularly optimistic about finding a credible candidate against Republican Gov. Phil Bryant, who looks like a safe bet to win a second term. This week their very short list got even shorter, with 2011 Democratic primary runner-up Bill Luckett declining to run. Luckett, who lost the runoff to eventual nominee Johnny DuPree 55-45, has since become the mayor of Clarksdale: Team Blue doesn't have much of a bench left in the Magnolia State so we may hear Luckett's name again before too long. (H/t GradyDem)
House:
• NY-11: Does Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan, the likely Republican nominee in the special election to replace ex-Rep. Mike Grimm, have a sure finger on the pulse of the 11th District electorate? Donovan, of course, is the prosecutor who failed to obtain an indictment against the cop who choked Eric Garner to death, though that unpleasant fact may not serve as much of a negative for him, given that voters here are relatively conservative and are more apt to side with the police than elsewhere in New York City.
However, Donovan's already tried to bully Democrats into shutting up about Garner on the campaign trail, which you think he wouldn't do if he weren't worried about potential blowback. What's more, he just called on Mayor Bill de Blasio and the police to apologize to each other for recent tensions. While some NYPD union leaders have hollered for de Blasio to offer a mea culpa to them, Donovan's insistence on a mutual apology is new.
But as this biting New York Times editorial archly pointed out, the supposed sins de Blasio's critics want him to apologize for scarcely amount to anything, and it's impossible to imagine anyone in the police department apologizing to the mayor. In fact, some cops don't even want a de Blasio apology: A recent union meeting devolved into pushing, shoving, and screaming, with one member shouting that officers want "more cars, better vests, more manpower," not a meaningless "I'm sorry."
We still don't know how the Garner case in particular and the role of law enforcement in general will play out in this race—Democrats still have yet to rally around a candidate, for instance—but right now, it looks like Donovan is walking something of a tightrope here.
• TX-03: At 84 years old, Republican Rep. Sam Johnson is a perennial retirement possibility though he's given no indication when he'll call it quits. Johnson's affluent Collin County seat consists of communities north of Dallas including Plano and McKinney and is safely Republican at 64-34 Romney. Johnson probably has the seat for as long as he wants, but one Republican legislator is already positioning himself to succeed the congressman.
State Rep. Scott Turner recently launched a longshot challenge from the right against House Speaker Joe Straus, a fellow Republican. There wasn't any real chance he would prevail and indeed, Strause won another term as speaker by 127 votes to 19. However, Turner's move may have been more about Johnson than about Strause. Marty Schladen of the El Paso Times notes that Turner lives in the 3rd District and he just made himself a lot more viable to Republican activists, especially ones who never liked an establishment figure like Straus. This could make a big difference in what will probably be a competitive congressional primary.
In any case, we probably haven't heard the last from Turner even if he ends up needing to wait to run for Congress. As an African American former NFL player he definitely stands out from most other Republican politicians, and he looks too ambitious to stay put for long. (H/t wwmiv)
Other Races:
• Special Elections: Besides the strange race in Virginia (see our VA State House item below), we also had a contest in Texas. Johnny Longtorso tells us:
Texas HD-13: This district located west of Houston is the seat vacated by Republican Lois Kolkhorst, who herself was elected to the state Senate in a special election last month. The district is heavily Republican, having gone 76-23 Romney in 2012.
This will go to a runoff between two Republicans; Carolyn Cerny Bilski and Leighton Schubert won 43 and 34 percent in the first round, respectively. Democrat Cecil Webster came in third with 13 percent, while Republican Becky Berger came in last with 10 percent.
• VA State House: It's pretty common for a politician to resign in disgrace. What's not at all common is for that same politician to run in the special election to replace himself- and
win. But that's exactly what happened to Democrat-turned independent Del. Joe Morrissey in Virginia's 74th House District. Johnny Longtorso gives us the details of this strange and sordid affair:
Last year, Democrat Joe Morrissey was indicted on charges of having sex with an underage girl. He eventually entered an Alford plea to a misdemeanor charge, went to jail (though he was being allowed to continue his job as a delegate through a work-release program), and after pressure from all sides, resigned his seat. However, he immediately jumped into the special election, first as a Democrat, then as an independent. Morrissey is still serving his sentence, and can only leave prison for up to 12 hours each day to campaign or serve as a lawyer.
Democrats nominated Kevin Sullivan, the vice chair of the Charles City County Democratic Committee and a union official, while Republicans picked teacher Matt Walton. The district is heavily Democratic, having given 74 percent of the vote to Mark Warner in 2014 and Barack Obama in 2012 and 71 percent to Terry McAuliffe in 2013, so there was little chance of a Walton victory. However, Sullivan started largely unknown here. His base in Charles City County only accounts for about a tenth of the district, with most voters living in Henrico.
A Morrissey victory looked possible before Tuesday... and that's just what happened. Morrissey took 42 percent of the vote, while Democrat Kevin Sullivan came in second with 33 percent. Republican Matt Walton brought up the rear with 24 percent.
On Wednesday Morrissey was sworn in, though his saga is not over by a long shot. Both parties are
looking at expelling or at least censuring him, and Democrats are not letting him back into the caucus. But as Jenna Portnoy of the
Washington Post tells us, if two-thirds of the chamber votes to expel him, another special election would need to be called... that Morrissey could also run in.
Grab Bag:
• Demographics: National Journal's Ron Brownstein is out with what appears to be another installment of a multi-part series on the flip-sides of the demographic coin: more districts with more minorities, but Republicans doing better in the remaining districts with few minorities. Perhaps the most interesting part of this installment is the maps showing congressional districts with under 20 percent minorities, 20-30 percent, and more than 30 percent minorities, over the period of 1992, 2008, and 2015. He's right to call it a 'receding glacier,' because you can see the movement of mostly-white districts from, decades ago, covering most of the country, to just the northern tier now.
The piece is called "Demography is not Destiny," but his discussion of the role of gerrymandering undercuts the title somewhat. Republicans have been able to stem the tide of the effects of a growing non-white population somewhat, but largely only where they're able to control the redistricting process, where they can arrange non-white voters so they're distributed as widely as possible, so that they don't cross over to the point where they're 40 or 50 percent of the population in particular districts and can start making a difference in the electoral calculus.
The GOP had complete control of the line-drawing in Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Louisiana, South Carolina, Alabama, and Oklahoma: In the new Congress, Republicans will control 60 of the 94 seats in those states where minorities equal at least 30 percent of the population.
By contrast, in California, New York, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Arizona, Mississippi, Nevada, Colorado, Connecticut, and New Mexico—states where either Democrats, a divided state government, or a neutral process drew the lines—Democrats will control 87 of the 112 seats where minorities cross that population threshold.
• Votes: The House of Representatives voted Wednesday on a Department of Homeland Security package that, among other things, rolled back DACA (which deferred deportations of children brought illegally to the U.S.). The most interesting part of the vote, though, was the
amendment specifically concerning DACA; a large number of Republicans peeled away, mostly moderates and/or members with substantial Latino populations in their districts. While the Dems were unanimous on this amendment, 26 GOPers broke ranks (meaning the amendment passed only 218-209).
On the Latino-constituent side, that includes Mark Amodei, Mike Coffman, Carlos Curbelo, Jeff Denham, Mario Diaz-Balart, Cresent Hardy, Joe Heck, Martha McSally, Devin Nunes, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and David Valadao. And on the Northeast moderate side, that included Ryan Costello, Charlie Dent, Bob Dold!, Chris Gibson, Richard Hanna, John Katko, Peter King, Adam Kinzinger, Frank LoBiondo, Tom MacArthur, Pat Meehan, Dave Reichert (from the West, but from a district without many Latinos, and more of a moderate than those in category 1), Chris Smith, and Fred Upton. The only one who doesn't fit in either place is Renee Ellmers, who also faced a stronger-than-expected challenge from the nativist right in her 2014 primary in NC-02.
The final bill was less dramatic, passing with 10 GOP no votes (Coffman, Curbelo, Denham, Diaz-Balart, Dold, Ros-Lehtinen, and Valadao, plus the usual no-on-everything crew of Justin Amash and Tom Massie) and only two Dem yes votes (Brad Ashford and Collin Peterson).
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.