Incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan
As the EU Election Observation Mission arrives in Nigeria a few weeks before the February 14th elections, the international community has turned its attention to the country, hoping for a transparent and fair poll against the backdrop of a worsening security situation. The Islamist militant group Boko Haram has wrecked havoc across the north east of Nigeria, killing thousands, attacking towns, villages, military bases and police stations, and now controls a territory over 20,000 square miles – roughly the size of Belgium. The terrorist group, whose name loosely translates to “Western education is sin” has been violently campaigning for strict Sharia law in Nigeria and has been fighting against the establishment of any Western ideals or values, including democratic elections. Approximately
1.7 million Nigerians now live under the control of Boko Haram, and 1.5 million have been forced to flee from their homes due to the escalating violence.
This year’s presidential race is set to be the most divisive and competitive since the end of military rule in the country back in 1999, and will be largely fought between the two front runners, incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party, and former military dictator Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress. As Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria’s election will be watched closely by the world due to its widespread implications for the entire region.
In light of the predicted violence to be caused by Boko Haram’s members, and looking back on the violent clashes that took place following the 2011 elections during which 800 were killed, this year the presidential candidates of all the political parties have signed an accord to prevent violent incidents and to contain aggression. Due to the country’s ethnic diversity and bubbling religious and regional tensions, violence has plagued Nigerian elections since 1999. However, as the Boko Haram threat increases in the northeast and across the border in neighboring countries, the need for non-violent successful elections has grown. Professor Pat Utomi, a former Nigerian presidential candidate, rightly stated that “if Nigeria gets it wrong in the 2015 general election, it could spell doom not only for the country but for Africa”.
For his part, President Jonathan has vowed to increase security in the northeast of the country to ensure that voters can reach the polls safely, as 38 million biometric voter cards have been issued to put an end to ballot stuffing and allegations of fraud. While revolutionizing Nigeria’s agricultural sector, privatizing the inefficient power industry and creating jobs along the way, Jonathan has been largely criticized for his inability to fight graft within his own ranks and has been blamed for the increasingly territorial hold of Boko Haram.
At the same time, one can argue that Jonathan has presided over one of Nigeria’s most turbulent time periods, and as the security situation deteriorates, Nigerians have begun to look elsewhere for change.
Buhari came to power following a military coup in 1983 and ruled the country for 20 months with an “iron fist” before he was overthrown by a rival military faction. Running on an anti-corruption platform and banking on his reputation for strong leadership, Buhari is hoping to capitalize on the failures of the government in battling with the country’s crisis. However, one look at Buhari’s past should show the population that while change in Nigeria is indeed needed, at what cost should it be accepted? Buhari’s military rule, while characterized by his fight against corruption, was overshadowed by human rights abuses that instilled fear in his own population. Even today, Buhari’s intentions for the country remain unclear.
While pledging to defeat Boko Haram and put an end to its brutal attacks, Buhari has actively promoted the establishment of Sharia law in the secular country (now being violently enforced by Boko Haram through killings), a move that will most definitely spark more violence and religious tensions. Furthermore, Buhari has previously made statements calling for a bloodbath in the country should he lose because of perceived corruption and voter fraud – his exact claims when he lost in 2011.
Nigeria’s elections and the environment surrounding them will be a decisive factor, not just for the future of the country itself, but also for Africa’s stability overall. While President Jonathan has governed in harsh times and still has a lot of prove should he win a second term, those in the country advocating for Buhari should think long and hard about the implications and costs a military strongman as Head of State would have. His lack of economic policy, his support for Nigeria as a country governed by Sharia law, and previous human rights violations could mean that his return to the political frontlines will move the country away from the “the democratic rights Nigerians fought long and hard to earn”. Former Secretary General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, made clear the importance of the 2015 election in Nigeria, claiming “Nigeria has the future of the continent in its hands. […] Nigeria’s success in the forthcoming election will be Africa’s success”. It is now up to the presidential candidates to practice restraint and secure a fair and violent free election, and up to the people to define which leader holds the right cards for a stable, strong and democratic Nigeria.