Republicans are unraveling before our very eyes, fueled by a duel between GOP radicals and their slightly more moderate brethren in the House.
The showdown began with 25 Republican right-wingers refusing to vote for Boehner as House speaker. Then Boehner bowed to the wishes of his most extreme members on the bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security, which included anti-immigrant measures so extreme that 26 slightly more sane Republicans defected on the vote.
And today, Boehner has a swarm of angry pro-life activists blanketing Capitol Hill because he tabled a vote on a bill that would have banned abortions after 20 weeks. GOP leadership pulled the bill after some of its 22 female members voiced concerns over certain provisions of the bill and the timing of the vote.
That's three misfires right out of the gate for the GOP and a sign of times to come. And even though Boehner successfully sent that Homeland Security funding bill to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Republicans are now scrambling to massage it into something reasonable enough to pass the upper chamber, lest the department lose funding at the end of next month. Whatever one might think of the Department of Homeland Security, nothing would be a greater black eye for Republican leadership than failing to fully fund national security efforts in the immediate aftermath of terrorist attacks in Europe. After all, Republicans have always prided themselves on their unique ability to protect "the homeland."
What this all boils down to for John Boehner is a diversity problem. Not in the sense of a truly multi-racial, gender-equitable type of caucus (just 22 women and 12 people of color sit among the GOP's 246 mostly-white, mostly-male caucus). But for instance, 26 House Republicans are so-called Obama Republicans who represent districts that were won by Obama in 2012; by contrast only five Democrats represent districts won by Romney in 2012.
As Ed O-Keefe explained, that's a serious problem for Boehner:
The 246-member caucus is seeing rifts on issues where it once had more unity. That's because there are now more moderate Republicans from swing districts who could face tough re-elections in 2016 when more Democratic and independent voters are expected to vote in the presidential election.
And on the other side of the GOP spectrum are the 25 House Republicans who put themselves on record opposing Boehner himself—a higher number than had defected on a leadership vote in nearly a century.
This week, female Republicans made their mark—voicing enough opposition to the abortion ban bill that House leadership pulled it from the schedule. And here's what's interesting: some of those women had voted for the very same bill last Congress, yet for some reason this time around, they got vocal. So vocal, in fact, that Republicans decided it would be better to face the ire of thousands of pro-lifers marching on Washington today on the anniversary of Roe v. Wade than vote on the bill. That does not make these Republican women moderates (many of them still support efforts to limit abortion access), but it does make them a serious thorn in Boehner's side. They are bound to think differently on certain issues than their male counterparts who lead the caucus.
The House GOP has truly entered the age of dissent within its caucus. Perhaps 246 is too much of a good thing.