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Deaths: We recently highlighted the death of former Republican Rep. John T. Myers of Indiana, who seemed to have a surprisingly uneventful tenure despite serving for three decades. However, Myers almost had his shot at becoming the first Republican chair of the Appropriations Committee in 40 years.
When the GOP took the House in the 1994 wave, Myers was in line to head this powerful committee. But the chamber's new Speaker Newt Gingrich was no fan of the seniority system, and he had little incentive to let someone like Myers take such a coveted post when he could give it to one of his people instead. Gingrich snubbed the Hoosier, and put the more junior Bob Livingston in charge. It's probably not a coincidence that Myers retired soon afterwards, perhaps deciding that being an obscure member of the majority was even worse than serving as an obscure member of the minority. (Jeff Singer)
9:06 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IL-10: National Democrats have made it no secret that they're trying to recruit former Rep. Brad Schneider for another match against Republican Rep. Bob Dold(!). Schneider himself seems pretty unsure about the idea; he recently admitted that he "loved the job, but hated the campaign." Still, Schneider is meeting with the DCCC, so he's at least taking the idea of a comeback seriously.
This ancestrally Republican seat, which includes many of Chicago's affluent northern suburbs, doesn't have a great Democratic bench, but another local politician is thinking about a run. Roll Call's Emily Cahn reports that Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rodkin Rotering could run—and she may not defer to Schneider. Obama won this district by a 58-41 margin, but it's no gimme for Team Blue even with presidential year turnout. Dold himself has done a good job portraying himself as the type of moderate Republican that voters here like, and he won't lack the money he needs to win.
9:23 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IN-Sen: The National Journal has a great article about how Republican senators are hoping to defer a primary challenge. It notes that while people like Missouri's Roy Blunt, Arkansas' John Boozman, and Kansas' Jerry Moran haven't drawn any real primary or Democratic foes, none of them are taking any chances. No one wants to turn into former Indiana Sen. Richard Luger, who lost touch with the base and wasn't at all prepared for a serious primary challenge. As a result, most Republican senators are raising money and staying in contact with the party-rank-and-file.
That is, with the exception of Lugar's former colleague, Sen. Dan Coats. Coats recently told Roll Call that he's undecided about re-election but is preparing a campaign anyway, but some GOP operatives find his preparations lacking. National Journal notes that he only has $752,000 on hand, not a very impressive sum at all. The good news for Coats is that no notable Republicans or Democrats have made any noise about challenging him. But if Coats does run again and doesn't pick up the pace, it's quite possible that some ambitious politician will smell weakness and decide to take on the senator.
9:44 AM PT (David Jarman): Philly mayor: City councilor Jim Kenney hasn't announced a mayoral campaign yet (though he did resign in order to run, so he's past the point of no return). But he's already scored at least one key labor endorsement: from the 13,000 member local district of the National Union of Hospital and Health Care Employees.
9:54 AM PT (Jeff Singer): GA-09, MN-02, PA-09: Every cycle, plenty of members of Congress draw primary challenges. Most of these candidates turn out to be duds but as Dave Brat proved last year, sometimes you can't tell the duds from the credible contenders until the votes are in. Over at Politico, Alex Isenstadt talks about some of the Republican representatives and senators who are already attracting intra-party opposition.
We've already mentioned some of these before, but a few races are new. Over in northern Georgia's 9th District, radio host Al Gainey started making noises about challenging Rep. Doug Collins after the congressman backed John Boehner for speaker. In central Pennsylvania's 9th District, Rep. Bill Shuster may face a rematch with Art Halvorson and Travis Schooley, both of whom challenged him in 2014: Shuster beat Halvorson 52-35, with Schooley taking 13. If both run again Shuster should be able to win with at least a plurality but if he's stuck in a one-on-one race against the wealthy Halvorson, things could get exciting. And in Minnesota's 2nd District, engineer David Gerson has already announced that he will challenge Rep. John Kline.
Both GA-09 and PA-09 are safely red: Romney took 78 percent and 63 percent of the vote respectively. However, MN-02 is much more competitive: Obama narrowly carried this suburban Twin Cities seat. Kline also just drew a Democratic foe in former St. Jude Medical executive Angela Craig, though she is an untested candidate. Gerson may very well just be a Some Dude that Kline can safely ignore. But if it turns out he has a little fight in him, it could give Kline and national Republicans an unwelcome distraction. We'll see soon enough if Gerson or any of the the other possible primary candidates can raise the money they'll need and earn some critical endorsements, or if they go absolutely nowhere like so many contenders do.
10:01 AM PT (Jeff Singer): WATN: Democratic state Treasurer Rob McCord entered the 2014 gubernatorial contest as a formidable primary candidate, but he ended up taking only 17 percent in the primary. It's not too surprising that after all that McCord is quitting politics, though he's leaving a lot sooner than expected.
On Thursday he announced he is resigning as state treasurer, though he did not provide a reason. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf (who beat McCord in the primary) will select his replacement, who will need to be confirmed by the Republican state Senate. This seat will next be up in 2016. As for McCord, don't expect to see his name on the ballot anytime soon: He ruled out a U.S. Senate run a few months ago.
10:35 AM PT (Jeff Singer): GA-09, MN-02, PA-09: We have a little bit of extra information about Gainey and Gerson. Gainey has held elected office in the past, serving as a Hall County commissioner from 1997 to 2001. Gerson has challenged Kline twice before. In 2012 he lost 85-15 in the primary; in 2014 he lost on the first ballot of the district convention. Gerson's fundraising was never anything to write home about.
10:37 AM PT: Site News: Daily Kos has launched a new feature called "Daily Kos Classics" to help call attention to older but still excellent posts. The best will get featured in the "Daily Kos Recommended" email that goes out to hundreds of thousands of readers each day. What's more, when an old diary is posted to the Classics group, comments on it will be re-opened, allowing new discussions to thrive. So if you have any favorite posts—whether personal or politics, your own or written by others—please nominate them in comments
10:51 AM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-Gov: Now that the filing deadline has passed the Republican gubernatorial field is set here, and GOP pollster Remington Research Group wasted no time taking a look at the May 19 primary. Remington, who says they have no client here, finds that things start very tight here. State Agriculture Commissioner James Comer begins with a 22-19 lead over tea partying businessman Matt Bevin; former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner is just behind at 18. Former state Supreme Court Justice Will Scott is dead last with 5. The winner will take on Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, who faces minimal primary opposition.
10:57 AM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-Sen, 18: Whether Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy runs for the U.S. Senate next year or for re-election, there's no question that he'll have money to burn. The congressman just announced that he hauled in $533,000 in the fourth quarter of 2014, a mind-blowing sum for what's usually a dry fundraising quarter. If Murphy does run for the Senate, he can transfer this money from his House account.
11:09 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Chicago Mayor: Our long polling drought here is really over! On behalf of the Chicago Tribune, APC Research surveys the Feb. 24 non-partisan primary and finds incumbent Mayor Rahm Emanuel ahead, but a bit far from the majority he needs to win outright. Rahm leads Cook County Commissioner Jesus Garcia 42-18; Bob Fioretti takes 10, with businessman Willie Wilson at 7. Two recent polls also showed Rahm far ahead but a bit below the 50 percent he wants to avoid an April runoff.
Rahm has been bombarding the airwaves with positive ads, and it seems to have helped him restore his popularity. APC gives him a 43-35 approval rating, a huge turnaround from the 29-46 score they gave him in August. Garcia and Fioretti are not nearly as well known, sporting 34-6 and 25-8 favorable ratings respectively. The problem for Rahm's opponents is that they don't have anywhere near the type of money the mayor has, and no deep-pocketed groups have gotten involved. If Rahm keeps monopolizing the airwaves, the once-unpopular incumbent can very well walk away with victory next month.
12:21 PM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-01: Well this would be... interesting. Back in December, Republican Rep. Steve Scalise earned some ugly headlines when it emerged that he had given a speech back in 2002 to a group run by former Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard David Duke. Scalise claimed he didn't know the organization had anything to do with the infamous neo-Nazi, and he denounced all that Duke stands for. Scalise managed to hang on as House majority whip, but Duke himself is now talking about challenging the incumbent in this conservative suburban New Orleans seat.
Duke may not be bluffing about seeking office here. He won a local state House seat as a Republican in 1989, and proceeded to run for U.S. Senate, governor, and U.S. House. As recently as 1999, Duke came close to making the runoff for the old version of this House seat. But he would face very long odds if he tried again. Back in the 2004 open-seat race here, Duke's longtime ally Roy Anderson ran (as a Democrat!) and could only muster up 7 percent of the vote.
Duke himself isn't exactly beloved either: A February 2013 PPP poll gave him a 9-76 unfavorable rating statewide. It's also worth noting that in the faithful 1991 gubernatorial race between Duke and Democrat Edwin Edwards, Duke did poorly in the areas that make up the 1st District (he even lost the very conservative St. Tammany Parish, an impressive feat for a Republican).
If Duke does run against Scalise he can't count on a low-turnout primary carrying him to victory. In Louisiana, all the candidates will run together in November during the high-turnout presidential contest. In theory, Duke could keep Scalise from taking a majority and force him into a December runoff, but don't hold your breath.
12:52 PM PT (Jeff Singer): WATN: This almost certainly explains why McCord is bailing though: the treasurer is reportedly under federal investigation over the alleged theft of funds.
2:05 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA Ballot: Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown is barred from seeking another term, but he has almost $24 million sitting in his campaign account. The money isn't going to go to waste: Brown can spend it in support or opposition to ballot measures and state constitutional amendments, something he's already promised to do. In 2014 Brown spent $5.2 million in support of a water bond and money for the rainy-day fund, with only $800,000 going to his actual re-election campaign, so this is nothing new for the governor. In the Golden State, plenty of policy is decided directly at the ballot rather than by the legislature, so Brown's ability to push his agenda will depend on these referendums.
And Brown will have more to get involved with than ever. As we've noted before, the number of valid signatures needed to get a measure or amendment on the ballot is decided by the number of votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. Because turnout was low in 2014, only 325,000 signatures are needed for ballot measures for the next four years; after 2010 the magic number was 504,000. The signature requirement for amendments has also dropped, going from 808,000 to 520,000. Expect to see Brown spending quite a bit or money and energy on these referendums during the final four years of his tenure.
3:23 PM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-Gov: The Kentucky Democratic Party also released a Garin-Hart-Yang poll conducted in mid-December to argue that Conway is in strong shape going into November. The survey shows Conway leading Comer 48-36, and beating Heiner 51-30; Bevin and Scott were apparently not tested.
The only other recent general election poll we've seen comes from Gravis Marking and it showed quite a different result: They had Conway only ahead of Comer 40-37, and leading Heiner 43-34. It seems too good to be true for Conway to be this close to 50 percent against his toughest foe in such a red state like Garin-Hart-Yang says, but Gravis isn't exactly a paragon of accuracy. Hopefully we'll see some more primary and general numbers here sooner rather than later.