Republican Sen. Roy Blunt (front)
Leading Off:
• MO-Sen: Both national and Show Me State Democrats have been focusing most of their energy to next year's gubernatorial contest, with the Senate race getting far less love. It's no secret that it will be very difficult to unseat freshman Republican Roy Blunt in a state that's largely turned against federal Democrats. Blunt also has been raising plenty of cash with the goal of scaring off any serious primary or general election foes. While Democrats are looking under every nook and cranny for the four pickups that will flip the Senate (assuming the White House stays blue), there hasn't been much talk about going after Blunt.
However, Team Blue may land a credible candidate after all. The Kansas City Star reports that "sources close to" Secretary of State Jason Kander say that he's mulling a campaign here, and will make a decision by the summer. Kander won a tough open-seat race here in 2012, prevailing 49-47 even as Mitt Romney was carrying the state 54-44. Blunt is going to be a much tougher opponent than Shane Schoeller was though, and Kander would need to give up his post to run. But there aren't too many other viable Missouri Democrats who could run, and Kander would give his party at least an outside shot at an upset.
Senate:
• NC-Sen: Even though Republican Sen. Richard Burr recently announced that he'd run for a third term, he's still been on a few retirement watch lists. This should put any talk of him bailing to rest though: The incumbent just hauled in $1 million in his kick-off fundraiser.
• OH-Sen: National Democrats are trying to recruit former Gov. Ted Strickland to run against Republican Sen. Rob Portman, but it doesn't sound like he's ready to enter the race just yet. On Friday the Youngstown Vindicator, citing unnamed sources close to Strickland, reported that he would definitely run. However, someone may have jumped the gun here. Henry Gomez of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer spoke to (named) sources, who said that while Strickland is seriously considering a campaign, he hasn't made any final decisions yet.
Still, on Saturday, David Skolnick of the Vindicator reported that Strickland has indeed decided to run and spent Friday talking to donors and supporters. Throughout all this, Strickland himself has been silent. Currently only Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld is running on the Democratic side, though Strickland's ally Rep. Tim Ryan may jump in if the former governor doesn't.
• PA-Sen: Former Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak is all-but-certain to seek a rematch against Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, who narrowly beat him in 2010. But it's no secret that Sestak and the state Democratic establishment have a very strained relationship, and plenty of influential party leaders want someone else to serve as their standard-bearer. While Montgomery County Board of Commissioners Chair Josh Shapiro was initially touted and hasn't publicly ruled anything out, he doesn't appear to be incredibly interested in running.
But the search may be over for a candidate who could take on Sestak in the primary. State Sen. Vincent Hughes got some attention after someone started buying domain names like "Hughes4USSenate2016.com," and on Friday he told the Philadelphia Weekly that he is thinking about running. Hughes gave an early hint about what type of campaign he'd run, saying that the Democratic nominee needs to hail "from the Elizabeth Warren wing of the Democratic Party."
Hughes hails from voter-rich Philadelphia and is close to labor, both of which can make a big difference in a primary. Hughes is also the ranking member of the state Senate Appropriations Committee and ran the Democrats' unsuccessful attempt to flip the chamber last year, so he can likely raise real money. Hughes will be up for re-election in 2016, but he could run for the U.S. Senate and the legislature at the same time. If Hughes doesn't run, it's a good bet that Sestak's intra-party detractors will keep looking for their huckleberry, but there aren't really any obvious choices right now.
• WV-Sen, Gov: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is mulling a run for his old post as governor in 2016. If he won, current state law would allow him to appoint his successor to the Senate, who would serve until the seat is next up in 2018.
But state Republicans are trying to change all that, with House Speaker Tim Armstead pushing a bill that would require a special election be held instead. This would almost certainly make it easier for the GOP to take Manchin's seat: Without the benefit of incumbency, the Democratic nominee would have a tough time holding on in a state that's become very hostile to federal Democrats.
West Virginia Republican took control of the state House and Senate in November, so there's little stopping them from passing this if they want to. While Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin could veto the bill, it wouldn't do much good: Under Mountain State law, a veto can be overridden by a simple majority of both chambers. If Armstead has his way, national Democrats will undoubtedly pressure Manchin to stay in Washington rather than cost them a Senate seat. Whether he'd listen is another story.
Gubernatorial:
• PA-Gov: A year ago, Rob McCord looked like he was at least a co-frontrunner in Pennsylvania's Democratic gubernatorial primary. Now, he'll be lucky to stay out of jail. McCord recently announced he would resign as state treasurer in mid-February for unspecified reasons, though the media soon reported that he was under investigation for alleged theft of funds.
Things got even more dramatic on Friday. McCord not only immediately resigned from office, he recorded a video where he admitted to using his position as treasurer to pressure groups into donating to his campaign. McCord's lawyer announced that he would plead guilty soon. Gov. Tom Wolf, who beat McCord in the primary (to the relief of pretty much every Democrat right now) will appoint McCord's successor, who will need to be confirmed by the Republican state Senate.
House:
• MS-01: Very sad news from Mississippi, where Roll Call reports that Republican Rep. Alan Nunnelee's health has taken a turn for the worse. Nunnelee underwent an operation last year to remove a brain tumor, but had a stroke during the surgery. The congressman recently was diagnosed with an untreatable tumor and has been moved to hospice care.
Other Races:
• Maricopa County Sheriff: At 82-years old, there was some speculation that Republican Joe Arpaio would call it quits when he's next up in 2016. But to the delight of many conservatives and the frustration of liberals, Arpaio will seek a seventh four-year term. Arpaio won re-election in 2012 by a not-incredible 51-44 margin, but he'll be hard to beat in this huge conservative county.
His announcement has one small benefit: We get to avoid months of Arpaio flirting with a bid for higher office. In 2010 he talked about running for governor of Arizona and in the 2012 cycle he threw his name out there for U.S. Senate. Even as recently as last year, Arpaio was once again touting himself as a potential gubernatorial candidate. At least this time we'll be spared all that nonsense.
• NV State Assembly: Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval recently called on his party to use their new legislative majorities to pass a tax increase, and plenty of conservatives aren't happy about it. Chuck Muth, a well-known anti-tax activist, is organizing recall campaigns against three members: Chris Edwards, Stephen Silberkraus, and Speaker-designate John Hambrick.
It's not going to be easy for Muth and his allies to unseat the three legislators. While several legislative recall campaigns have been attempted in Nevada, none of them have made it to the ballot since 1993. Over at his "The Recall Elections Blog," Joshua Spivak explained why recalls are so rare in the Silver State in a 2013 article.
Essentially, organizers need to get 25 percent of all voters who went to the polls in the last race for the position. Doesn't sound too hard, but there's a few catches. To begin with, each signer needs to have actually voted in that election, they can't just be a registered voter. The 25 percent figure also is for the number of people who went to the polls—not just the number who voted for that position. (Update: This post originally and incorrectly said that 25 percent of registered voters in the district need to sign the recall petition).
Edwards and Hambrick represent safe Republican seats, so Team Red won't need to worry about losing any seats if the recalls do succeed. But Stephen Silberkraus' 29th District backed Obama 50-48 and was previously held by a Democrat: If Silberkraus did go down, Democrats may be able to capitalize.
Grab Bag:
• Great Mentioner: We continue our new Daily Kos Great Mentioner series, where we look at all the notable candidates who might run in 2016's most important races, in the First State. Former Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden, the son of the vice president, has looked like the next governor of Delaware for a while. However, while Biden's team maintains that he's running in 2016, there are new doubts if he'll actually be able to do it. While no serious Democrats want to challenge Biden in a primary, plenty are looking at running if he doesn't: Check out our post for more.
• WATN: Back in Massachusetts apparently. Republican Scott Brown, who served as a U.S. Senator from the Bay State before moving to New Hampshire to run there, is now asking for his state pension in Massachusetts. This will make it pretty difficult for Brown to run for office in the Granite State again but then again, he didn't exactly care how his carpetbagging looked last cycle.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.