Who is leading the GOP field of presidential candidates right now? My ranking of candidates and rationale for each is below. Sports fans are no doubt familiar with Power Rankings. The idea is too look beyond just team records and determine which teams are the strongest right now. Some Power Rankings are entirely subjective and others are entirely driven by an algorithm and some are a mix of objective and subjective factors. My rankings will be like the latter. Full list and analysis below.
1. Jeb Bush
Pros: With Romney out Bush is the establishment candidate. In the GOP the candidate who leads among the wealthy "donor class" most often emerges with the nomination. This kind of candidate is usually not among the most conservative candidates in the field - many of those who give big dollars like a winner and far-right idealogues don't usually win. Bush's family connections gave him a leg up on fundraising and that's one reason Romney got out. Also in Bush's favor are polls showing him doing better than most of the remaining candidates against Hillary (although not as well as Romney polled). For example, a month ago CNN had Bush trailing Clinton by 13 points while she led other GOP candidates by 20+. Ultimately, GOP voters end up with the candidate that polls the best against the likely Democratic nominee even if their base doesn't like that candidate. The GOP base practically hated McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 but both prevailed due to slightly better polling against Obama (and Hillary in 08) than their GOP peers. Finally, Jeb's wife was born in Mexico and some GOP voters know their party must do better with minorities in 2016.
Cons: Bush is named Bush. Bush will struggle to win the nomination the way McCain and Romney struggled because he is perceived as too liberal by the GOP base. Also, one Clinton weakness is that she is not a fresh face. She is 67 and has been in the public eye 25 years and is seen as a legacy candidate. Guess what? Jeb Bush renders that weakness moot since he is 62 (next week) and has been in the public eye a very long time and is also seen as a legacy candidate. Which does the American public recall more fondly, the Bush eras or the Clinton era?
2. Scott Walker
Pros: It's hard to see it for Democrats but Scott Walker is a very popular figure among the GOP. He's anti-union, tax-cutting and survived a high-profile recall campaign and a reelection. If Democrats hate you, you're going to popular with the GOP. This is true for all Republicans except Chris Christie. Nate Silver and his fellow analytic crew all (subjectively) rated Walker as having the best chance at the nomination and that was with Romney in the field. Walker also narrowly won out in Des Moines Register poll of Iowa among GOP candidates.
Cons: Not the most exciting political candidate. He'll have to explain the big deficit he created in Wisconsin but GOP voters don't necessarily mind deficits unless they're created by Democrats. A deficit caused by tax cuts gets a shrug.
3. Ben Carson
Pros: He's a successful neurosurgeon and generally smart guy who happens to be very conservative and black at the same time. This combination is very appealing to a GOP that is used to being called racist and he will be riding high in the polls at some point during the GOP primaries, that much I'm confident about. He's anti-gay (has used the bestiality line to explain his opposition to gay marriage) and anti-evolution and anti-Obamacare.
Cons: Not much of a record of political experience but, you know, Sarah Palin, Herman Cain, etc. May not win in the end but you never know.
4. Rand Paul
Pros: He can touch a lot of GOP bases. He has the libertarian wing via his dad and can count on their enthusiastic fundraising but is able to distance himself from his father's more controversial stances. He's got tea party cred but is part of the establishment; he's a Senator rather than just a House member. While Ron Paul is a non-interventionist you can expect Rand Paul to be a bit more pragmatic on military matters. Like Carson, he is also a doctor and can criticize Obamacare from a more authoritative position. He went to Berkeley last year to talk about race and understands the GOP weakness with minority groups.
Cons: Not much sign the establishment GOP takes him seriously. His fate will be partially tied to how well he does in polls against Hillary.
5. Marco Rubio
Pros: Young fresh face and his parents were born in Cuba. Gives GOP voters another chance to support a candidate who might have some appeal with minority groups. A Senator from a large swing state. Usually speaks well...
Cons: ...except when nervous/thirsty. May not have enough establishment backing.
6. Chris Christie
Pros: Governor of a blue state. Tough guy persona. Former prosecutor.
Cons: He embraced Obama right before election day 2012 and Republicans won't forget this. He is soft on many hard-right issues. The establishment GOP knows he is damaged goods and money will not flow his way.
7. The rest: Rick Perry, Mike Pence, Mike Huckabee, Rick Scott, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, etc.
Huckabee has some support in Iowa. Perry now wears glasses. Lindsey has McCain's vote. Really, no signs of life for these candidates yet. Trump isn't running and neither is Palin but I really wish they would. Run Sarah Run!
How do you have them ranked?