Only a few updates today, but the first one is impressive:
—Maryland breaks 100K QHPs milestone; on track to easily break my INCREASED projection
Massachusetts will likely stay "quiet" for longer than most states, followed by an even more dramatic "hockey stick" spike in the final 3-4 days:
—Massachusetts: All's Quiet on the Bay Stater Front, but should start heating up quickly
Unfortunately, Washington State, which did so well last year, seems to have run into some serious issues; even my lowered projection from a few days ago is looking like it might be too high at this point:
—Washington State: 132K QHPs, 498K Medicaid; 180-190K looking more likely
Finally, an update on the OFF-exchange QHP front; the data is still extremely spotty and outdated, but I think I have enough now to go with a ballpark national number:
—Louisiana: With partial OFF-exchange QHP data from 5 states, I'm making a rough projection
The short version: I'm guessing that off-exchange QHPs will end up being at least 80% of the exchange-based total; thus, if exchange selections total 12.5 million, off-exchange would be about 10 million.
If that sounds too high, remember that after you knock off non-payments (figure 12% of exchange-based, 8% of off-exchange), the numbers would be more like 11M on, 9.2M off-exchange.
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