Continuing this little series of speculative maps for what state congressional maps could look like after the 2020 Census. North Carolina was my last go.
As I mentioned last time, North Carolina missed out on a 14th district just barely at the expense of Minnesota keeping its 8th district, but there's nothing The Land of 10,000 lakes can do this time to hold on to MN-08.
Alabama too has just not been growing fast enough to hold onto its 7th District.
Here are the current maps for Alabama, a largely inoffensive map, though a more aggressive DoJ would have pushed for a second majority black district, and Minnesota, a court-drawn map after the Democratic Governor and Republican legislature couldn't come to a compromise.
As before, I must stress this is not what I expect will happen in 2020 in either of these states, merely one political junkie's expression of what could happen.
Alabama
South
District 1 Blue
Voting-age population demographics (VAP): 77.2 White, 16.8 Black
2008 Results: 27.5 Obama, 31.3 Dem average
Bradley Byrne (R-Baldwin County) lives here. The original AL-1 is all of Mobile County, but here it loses its black center so it expands east all the way to Dothan. Byrne becomes 10 points safer. Safe R
District 2 Green
VAP: 51.8 B, 43.6 White
2008: 60.2 Obama, 60.7 Dem
Majority black. The traditional "black belt" region plus half of Mobile. Martha Roby (R-Montgomery) and Mike Rodgers (R-Tuskegee) both live here. Roby's 2nd district is one of two districts that gets more or less seismically shifted in this map, and Rodgers' 3rd loses a lot of his former territory, including his home. Roby is probably screwed, but Rodgers can still run in the 3rd. Safe D, black hold
District 3 Purple
VAP: 72.5 W, 22.6 B
2008: 34.1 Obama, 39.4 Dem
Open, but Rodgers (and probably Roby) would run here. Columbus, Opelika, Talladega and Anniston. Not much else to say. Safe R
North
District 4 Red
VAP: 87 W, 7.1 B
2008: 23.3 Obama, 36.6 Dem
Robert Aderholt (R-Gadsden) lives here. Not much changed from his current district, which is the whitest in the state, Aderholt will be fine. Safe R
District 5 Yellow
VAP: 76.7 W, 15.7 B
2008: 36.4 Obama, 48 Dem
Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) lives here. The Northern Tier of the state, where Yellow Dog Democrats appear to still exist, though in dwindling numbers. Probably Safe R from now on.
District 6 Cyan
VAP: 58.8 W, 34.9 B
2008: 47.6 Obama, 47.4 Dem
Gary Palmer (R-Vestavia Hills) and Terri Sewell (D-Birmingham) both live here. Jefferson County and half of rapidly diversifying Shelby County. This will be quite competitive until demographic trends hold. Not sure how to handicap a Palmer v. Sewell race, so I'll keep this at Tossup
Minnesota
Minnesota is actually one state where a map similar to this could actually happen. Minnesota has been court-drawn for the past two redistricting cycles (at least), thanks to a split between the Governor and legislature. Democrats currently hold the Governorship and the state Senate, while Republicans took over the House in 2014. If Democrats can retake the House and hold onto the Senate and Governor's mansion, we could actually get a favorable map for once.
District 1 Blue
VAP: 91.3 W
2008: 51.3 Obama, 51.4 Dem
Tim Walz (DFL-Mankato) and John Kline (R-Lakeville) both live here. Mostly similar to the current 1st, though the district loses its western arm to the South Dakota border, and expands north to take some of Kline's territory, including his home. Kline is probably screwed, as you'll see below. The result is a district 0.5% better for the DFL, so not a huge shift. Walz is not only a good pol but also gets lucky with his opponents, so I'll call it Safe D for Walz and Lean D after he leaves.
District 6
VAP: 93.7 W
2008: 44.2 Obama, 46.2 Dem
Open. As you can see, it's Collin Peterson's 7th district that is eliminated, getting split between the 6th and 7th. The 6th keeps St. Cloud but loses the rest of exurban MSP, expanding south and west (and also north). Tom Emmer is narrowly drawn out of the district, but would likely run here if he wants to return to Congress. Likely R
District 7 Black
VAP: 92.6 W
2008: 55.2 Obama, 57.5 Dem
Rick Nolan (DFL-Duluth) and Collin Peterson (DFL-Moorhead) both live here. The traditional Iron Range, plus the strong DFL areas in the northwestern part of the state and along the Dakota borders. The Minnesota River area is the only real "gerrymander"y part of the whole map. Peterson and Nolan might both be out of Congress by this time, but it's bluer than the current MN-08, so any strong Dem would be more than fine. Likely D to be safe.
Minneapolis-St. Paul
District 2 Green
VAP: 84 W, 4.7 B, 4.7 Hispanic, 5 Asian
2008: 56 Obama, 54.1 Dem
Open. Parts of Hennepin, Dakota and Washington Counties. This is a concerted effort to eliminate John Kline, who is drawn into the 1st District. He could run here and face a tough challenge, or run in the 1st where half the territory would be unfamiliar to him and he'd face a formidable Tim Walz. Unclear what he'd do, but as for this district, what do you think, Mike Obermuller? Tossup/Lean D with Kline, Likely D without.
District 3 Purple
VAP: 92.3 W
2008: 42.4 Obama, 42.2 Dem
Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie) and Tom Emmer (R-Delano) both live here. Exurban MSP. This expands out to encircle MSP, kind of a hybrid between the current 3rd and 6th. Paulsen goes from an Obama 2012 district to being absolutely safe, except in a convention. Maybe Emmer tries to take this district instead? Safe R
District 4 Red
VAP: 77.4 W, 7.6 B, 5 H, 7.8 A
2008: 60.8 Obama, 60.4 Dem
Betty McCollum (DFL-St. Paul) lives here. Ramsey County and part of Anoka. McCollum takes a tiny hit but she'll be fine as will anyone after her. Safe D
District 5Yellow
VAP: 72.2 W, 12.6 B, 6.1 H, 6.1 A
2008: 67.6 Obama, 66.2 Dem
Keith Ellison (DFL-Minneapolis). Minneapolis and other parts of Hennepin County. Ellison takes a moderate hit from 73.4 Obama in 2008, but likewise he'll be just fine. Safe D
What do you think?