The Earth is currently being impacted by a stream of charged particles from the Sun (Raise shields, ensign!) and their interaction with the Earth's magnetic field has already produced visible auroras (Northern and Southern Lights) seen as far south as Northern Tier states in the U.S. Depending on how much longer the storm lasts, auroras may be visible tonight where the skies are both clear and dark. According to a Washington Post report,
Update at 12:45 p.m.: According to forecasters at the Space Weather Prediction Center, the geomagnetic storm continues on Tuesday afternoon, sporadically peaking at G4 intensity on the five-point scale. The severe geomagnetic storm was probably caused by the combination of two coronal mass ejections from an active sunspot region, the center’s forecasters said in a teleconference. Space weather models predicted just a “glancing blow” from these ejections, which instead have caused a stronger disruption here on Earth, and vivid auroras that have been seen as far south as Michigan.
The Space Weather Prediction Center has received no reports of negative impacts thus far, and there are no indications of a radiation storm that would impact satellite electronics and high-latitude flights. However, there could be some disruption in GPS technology and satellite navigation.
NOAA has more information
here and
here; there's also a report at
spaceweather.com with a real time
gallery of sky photos. The
home page for Space Weather has a bar down the left side margin for Current Conditions - scroll down the page to see a plot of the current auroral oval around the Earth's poles - there are links to click for views centered around the U.S., Europe, New Zealand, and Antarctica.
While commonly seen in polar regions, the Northern and Southern Lights are not normally seen in lower latitudes unless there is a strong geomagnetic storm. (The Carrington Event of 1859 was so strong, they were seen as far south as Mexico City.) A magnetic storm has been known to interfere with radio and electrical power grids; GPS signals may be affected. A really strong storm could knock out the electrical power grid;
A monster blast of geomagnetic particles from the sun could destroy 300 or more of the 2,100 high-voltage transformers that are the backbone of the U.S. electric grid, according to the National Academy of Sciences (NAS). Even a few hundred destroyed transformers could disable the entire interconnected system.
There is impetus for a group of federal agencies to look for ways to prepare for such a storm this year as the sun moves into an active period called solar maximum, expected to peak in 2013.
Some U.S. experts estimate as much as a 7 percent chance of a superstorm in the next decade, which seems a slight risk, but the effects would be so wide-ranging -- akin to a major meteorite strike -- that it has drawn official concern.
One of the key tasks for the recently launched
DSCOVR mission is to watch the sun to give us advance warning of solar flares.
DSCOVR will succeed NASA's Advanced Composition Explore's (ACE) role in supporting solar wind alerts and warnings from the L1 orbit, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and sun approximately one million miles from Earth. L1 is a good position from which to monitor the sun, because the constant stream of particles from the sun (the solar wind) reaches L1 about an hour before reaching Earth.
From this position, DSCOVR will typically be able to provide 15 to 60 minute warning time before the surge of particles and magnetic field, known as a coronal mass ejection (or CME), associated with a geomagnetic storm reaches Earth. DSCOVR data will also be used to improve predictions of geomagnetic storm impact locations. Our national security and economic well-being, which depend on advanced technologies, are at risk without these advanced warnings.
The current storm is not expected to reach dangerous levels - how much of it will be visible to the eye is difficult to predict. While photos show spectacular multi-colored curtains of light sweeping across the skies, in practice they may appear much dimmer to the naked eye, being little more than a flickering glow. But, you never know, so if you can find a really dark area under clear skies tonight, go take a look.
The crew of the International Space Station get to see auroras from above as the I.S.S. orbits around the Earth. Here's a compilation of some great video from NASA.
https://youtu.be/...
4:58 PM PT: UPDATE Tip to Antitheist for the link to a 30 minute aurora forecast:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/...
Things can change rapidly, so keep checking as long as the skies are clear where you are. It looks like a good chance northern states in the U.S. may get a glimpse...
9:21 PM PT: UPDATE 2 Choco8 has a picture from Vermont tonight. http://www.dailykos.com/...