Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee
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Republicans haven't won the governorship in solidly blue Washington since John Spellman's 1980 victory, but it hasn't been for lack of trying. The GOP came just 130 votes short in an epic recount in 2004, and Republican Rob McKenna gave Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee a close race in 2012. Inslee is up for re-election in 2016, and his approval rating has never been stellar. Republicans are hoping that this will finally be the cycle that returns them to power, but they need a candidate first.
There was plenty of early speculation that McKenna, a former state attorney general with a reputation as a moderate, would seek a rematch. But while McKenna hasn't ruled anything out, he's made no obvious moves toward a run. McKenna seems quite content to continue his legal career in the private sector, and the GOP will probably need to find someone else to take on Inslee. However, three other Republicans have expressed interest in a campaign, and all of them are worth taking seriously.
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Perhaps the most formidable Republican in the state is Rep. Dave Reichert. Reichert is a former King County sheriff, and he survived the 2006 and 2008 Democratic waves in a light blue seat in the Seattle suburbs. Reichert has been talking about challenging Inslee this time around, and he can definitely make it a race. However, Republicans have touted Reichert as a statewide contender for ages, and he's gamely played footsie every time, but he's always declined. If Reichert left the House, though, Democrats would finally have a clear shot at capturing his 50-48 Obama district.
State Sen. Andy Hill is also looking at a campaign. Hill didn't deny his interest back in February, and speculation has intensified in recent days. Like Reichert, Hill has experience appealing to the type of crossover voters that Evergreen State Republicans need to win. Hill represents a 58-40 Obama seat, and he prevailed 53-47 in an expensive 2014 contest (albeit with the GOP wave at his back). Hill also serves on the Senate's Ways and Means Committee, which gives him access to wealthy donors.
Rounding out the top tier is Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant, who has confirmed that he's "seriously exploring" the contest. Bryant would start out with little name recognition, and his relatively moderate views could prevent him from advancing to the general. However, if he actually does make it past the state's top-two primary, his moderate profile could be a big asset in this blue state. Bryant is also connected to Seattle business interests, so he can raise the money he'll need to get his name out.
The GOP bench gets a lot thinner past this trio, but there are some other Republicans who could conceivably jump in. Back in 2013, McKenna touted state Sens. Bruce Dammeier, Steve Litzow, and Jan Angel. All three hold seats that Obama won in 2012. Susan Hutchison is also worth keeping an eye on, though she's also shown no interest yet. Hutchison ran for King County executive in 2009, and has since gone on to become the state party chair.
Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler is a rising star in GOP politics, but it seems like she'd prefer to stay put in the House. Secretary of State Kim Wyman is the GOP's only statewide elected official, but she also seems to be content where she is.
As far as Republicans go, most of the names we've mentioned so far are relatively moderate, a necessary prerequisite for getting elected in Washington. However, a more conservative candidate could certainly run, and like everywhere else, Republican primary voters are apt to vote for a chef who specializes in red meat. Former NFL player Clint Didier is close to tea party groups, and he fell short in a Republican vs. Republican race in the 4th Congressional District by just a 51-49 margin last year. However, after three losses in as many cycles, Didiet might be done with politics.
Jay Inslee may not be beloved, but a key reason Democrats keep winning close gubernatorial races in Washington is that they coincide with presidential elections, which tend to juice turnout for Team Blue. Inslee is likely to once again benefit from that same phenomenon, but the GOP remains hopeful that if they can recruit a strong candidate, they can make this a contest. There aren't many competitive gubernatorial races in 2016, so both parties will focus on those few they can win. Washington therefore is likely to remain on our watch list, so we'll be keeping an eye on things at Daily Kos Elections.
For all of our posts in the Daily Kos Great Mentioner series, click here.