Democratic Senate candiate Tammy Duckworth
Leading Off:
• IL-Sen: As expected, Rep. Tammy Duckworth formally kicked off her campaign against GOP Sen. Mark Kirk on Monday, making her the first Democrat to enter the race. (She's posted a welcome video here.) Duckworth comes in to the contest with a reputation as a strong fundraiser who's well-connected to the political establishment, and she also has a singular biography as an Iraq War veteran who lost both legs in service to her country. However, she represents just a small slice of the Chicagoland area and still has to introduce herself to most of the state.
She might also still face a contested primary, though at least one potential rival is sounding less interested. Following Duckworth's announcement, Rep. Cheri Bustos told Roll Call she was "unlikely" to run (that's the paper's phrasing) and offered kind words for her House colleague, though she was careful to say she was not making a formal endorsement. On the other hand, an aide to Rep. Robin Kelly says she's still "considering" and will decide "soon." But we still haven't heard from Rep. Bill Foster as to whether his calculus has now changed.
Senate:
• FL-Sen: On Monday, GOP Sen. Marco Rubio said that he will announce on April 13 whether he will run for president or for a second term in the U.S. Senate, with most signs pointing to option A. Assuming Rubio departs, it'll likely set off a fiercely contested Republican primary to succeed him, as several big names are considering the race. Democrats, meanwhile, have largely united around just one candidate so far, Rep. Patrick Murphy, who picked up his third endorsement from a fellow member of Florida's delegation Monday, Rep. Lois Frankel. Interestingly, Murphy and Frankel spent most of 2011 competing against each other for the right to take on then-Republican Rep. Allan West, but redistricting led them to successfully run for two different seats.
• NC-Sen, Gov: Most Democrats looking for a challenge to two-term Republican Sen. Richard Burr have ex-Sen. Kay Hagan at the top of their wish list, but we haven't gotten a clear sign from Hagan that she's doing moving toward the race. The News & Observer checks in with some of the second-tier options for the Dems, but none of them sound terribly interested (at least for now). Former Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker says he's considering a run for statewide office, but not against Burr. Back in 2013, Meeker talked about taking on Republican Gov. Pat McCrory in next year's contest, but he's been very quiet about his plans since then, and he may not be willing to oppose Attorney General Roy Cooper for the Democratic nod.
State Senate Minority Leader Dan Blue has "no immediate plans," and is more focused on trying to win back control of the state Senate, while state Sen. Jeff Jackson says hasn't "even considered it." Ex-Rep. Brad Miller, currently working for a New York-based law firm, says he has "no desperate need to return to electoral politics." Finally, Treasurer Janet Cowell continues to say nothing about her plans, though Roll Call recently told us that she's met with the DSCC.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: When you make an initial splash as a candidate who's against something, it's hard to reimagine yourself as a candidate who's for something when that thing that you're against is no longer relevant. That's the takeaway from a new piece by National Journal's Karyn Bruggeman about tea-partying businessman Matt Bevin, who got a lot of attention for his GOP primary challenge to Mitch McConnell in 2014's Senate race, but hasn't been able to parlay the name recognition from that run into much traction in the GOP gubernatorial primary.
National groups that backed him last year aren't interested this time (largely because they ordinarily don't play in state races), and the main thing he seems to be accomplishing is splitting the tea party lane with Agriculture Commissioner James Comer, which is letting former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner — the sole occupant of the establishment lane — pull ahead. Like Heiner, Bevin is capable of self-funding, and says he'll put "some" of his money into this run, but he's mum on how much.
• LA-Gov: Louisiana Democrats seem to have given up hope on landing a more prominent candidate for this fall's gubernatorial election, since the party just formally endorsed state Rep. John Bel Edwards. The main hope rested with New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, but this move, plus the fact that his sister ex-Sen. Mary Landrieu offered praised for Edwards following the endorsement, is a pretty strong sign Mitch won't run.
The Republican field remains hotly divided, as Sen. David Vitter, the nominal frontrunner, dukes it out with Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle. But even if Edwards makes it to a November runoff, the GOP will be heavily favored to retain this seat, just as they were last year during Mary Landrieu's Senate runoff.
House:
• MI-10: Democratic state Rep. Henry Yanez doesn't appear to have commented on a possible run for retiring GOP Rep. Candice Miller's seat, but community member MetroGnome spots an interesting tell: Yanez's once-dormant Facebook page has been revived under the heading of "Henry Yanez for Congress." Yanez ran for this seat once before, getting absolutely obliterated in 2010 by a 72-26 margin, but Democrats don't have much of a bench in this decidedly red district, so he'd at least give the party a plausible option. One other Democrat expressing interest is Macomb County Commissioner Fred Miller, who'd have the entertaining chance to pull a "Distinguished Gentleman" routine and plaster the area with "Miller for Congress" signs. It's the name you know!
• NV-04, 01: State Sen. Ruben Kihuen just became the first Democrat to announce a bid against GOP freshman Cresent Hardy, whose fluky win last year assures him a place on the very top of Team Blue's target list this cycle. Kihuen, you may recall, tried to run in the neighboring 1st District in 2012 but bowed out after it became clear ex-Rep. Dina Titus had the nomination sewn up. Alexis Levinson suggests that Kihuen could still seek a repeat engagement in the much bluer 1st if Titus runs for Senate, as could former Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, who'd also been looking at the 4th.
• TN-04: State Sen. Jim Tracy, who blew what theoretically looked like a sure thing in the GOP primary last year against badly wounded Rep. Scott DesJarlais, has now confirmed for the first time that he's weighing a second attempt. However, Grant Starrett, a 27-year-old attorney who worked for Mitt Romney's campaigns says that he, too, is considering a run, and if both men enter, that could easily allow DesJarlais to survive thanks to the dreaded clown-car effect.
Other Races:
• Chicago Mayor: The latest Ogden & Fry poll brings no hope for Jesus "Chuy" Garcia, the Cook County commissioner challenging Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel in next week's runoff. Rahm still leads 48-34, little changed from his 49-32 advantage last week. Emanuel also picked up an unexpected endorsement from Alderman Bob Fioretti, who finished a weak fourth in the first round. Fioretti had cast himself as a progressive alternative to the incumbent, but it appears that he engaged in the worst sort of stereotypical Chicago politics by trading his support for a promise from Rahm to help retire his campaign debt. Pathetic.
Grab Bag:
• Demographics: We talked a bit last week about the newest round of population change data from the Census Bureau, but this is one of those cases where a picture is worth a thousand words. So, via Jed Kolko, here's a new county-level map of population change in the last year, expressed as a percentage. As you can see, the big gainers are in retirement areas (especially Florida, but also the coasts of the Carolinas, and Bend, Oregon), oil patches in Texas and North Dakota, and exurban counties in southern metropolitan areas, especially Houston, Nashville, and Charlotte. The fastest dwindling is in the already-lightly-populated agricultural counties of the Great Plains, as well as the Black Belt and Appalachians.
• Radio: On Sunday night, David Nir appeared on Kudzu Vine to discuss a whole variety of topics, from the GOP presidential field to Harry Reid's retirement (and many more in between). Click here to listen to a recording.
• UK General: Handicapping elections in the United States is hard enough even when there are only two major parties, but it's exponentially harder in the United Kingdom, where there's still a first-past-the-post system in parliamentary elections, but where there is a number of credible minor parties and regional parties. Combine that with little district-level polling of key constituencies, the likelihood of a coalition being necessary to govern, and an increasing tendency toward strategic voting, and you've just got a recipe for utter confusion.
Daily Kos Elections isn't going to touch that problem with a 3.05-meter pole, but we're glad to see that FiveThirtyEight will be attempting to grapple with it as the UK heads toward the 2015 election. Their 2010 predictions didn't turn out too well, and 2015 may be even more difficult (with the growing strength of the Scottish National Party, UKIP, and Greens likely to explode the math in a lot of seats, even though the UK Independence Party and Greens are unlikely to finish first in more than a handful of seats) ... but their focus on predictive demography seems a better jumping-off point than the old-school "swingometer" type analysis, which barely even works in a three-dimensional environment, to say nothing of a six-dimensional one.
At any rate, if you're just getting started on wrapping your head around the mysterious UK system, FiveThirtyEight has two good explainers from Monday that'll give you a baseline: one on the basic history of post-World War II politics in the UK (and the ebb and flow of the smaller parties during that period), and one on the ideological differences between the current parties (many of which deal with considerations we simply don't have in America, like regional autonomy and Euroskepticism).
• VA Redistricting: Last week's surprise Supreme Court ruling that found that Alabama Republicans likely packed too many black voters into too few legislative districts may wind up having a speedy and direct impact on a related case concerning Virginia's congressional lines. On Monday, the SCOTUS ordered a three-judge panel to reconsider its 2014 decision regarding a very similar claim about Virginia's 3rd Congressional District in light of the high court's new ruling. Unlike in Alabama, the lower court previously sided with plaintiffs, so this is a sign that the Supremes may be indeed be inclined to uphold the Virginia decision. That would force a redraw that would benefit Democrats, as black voters would have to be more evenly distributed in Republican districts.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.