Past diaries in this series:
Illinois (17)
Alabama (6) and Minnesota (7)
North Carolina (14)
Pennsylvania has lost at least once congressional district in every census since 1930, and 2020 doesn't appear to be any different according to current projections, with the Keystone State on track to lose one district.
After the red wave of 2010, Republicans were once again able to gerrymander the map, and by all accounts did a better job than they did in 2000. With the state losing a district, this is my crack at a PA map less one district.
Here's the current map.
As before, note: This is fantasy redistrict, not a realistic expectation of what the map will look like in 2021. Just one political junkie's expression of what the map could look like.
SEPA
District 1 Blue
Voting-age population demographics (VAP): 78.1 White, 8.2 Black, 5.4 Hispanic, 6.9 Asian
2008 results: 57.2 Obama
Incumbent Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia) lives here. North Philly, Parts of Montgomery, Bucks and Lehigh Counties. This is a great fit for Boyle, who is a little to the right of his current district. Likely D
District 2 Green
VAP: 38.3 W, 50.1 B, 5.6 A
2008: 82.2 Obama
Incumbents Bob Brady (D-Philadelphia) and Pat Meehan (R-Drexel Hill) live here. Majority black. Philadelphia and DelCo. Brady likely runs in the 6th or 8th instead, while Chaka Fattah (or whoever replaces him after he's indicted) runs here instead. Meehan likely retires (if he hasn't already), there are no good options. Safe D, black hold
District 6 Cyan
VAP: 73.5 W, 14.4 B, 5.6 H, 5.2 A
2008: 62.2 Obama
Incumbents Ryan Costello (R-West Chester) and Joe Pitts (R-Kennett Square) live here. Philadelphia, DelCo and Chester County. Dismantling the Republicans gerrymander is bad news for Costello and Pitts. White Pitts could run in the adjacent 4th, Costello has no options. Bob Brady might run here instead. Safe D
District 7 Black
VAP: 64.3 W, 23 B, 6.9 H
2008: 68.3 Obama
Incumbent Chaka Fattah (D-Philadelphia) lives here. Philly, DelCo, MontCo, Chester and Berks Counties. The bluest district not majority-minority, this would be a great opportunity for an other black pol to run here. Fattah (again, if he's still in office), would run in the 2nd. Safe D, black opportunity
District 8 Gold
VAP: 75.4 W, 9.1 B, 10.4 H
2008: 61.1 Obama
Retiring incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) lives here. Philadelphia and Buck County. Bob Brady could run here or in the 6th if he wants. Safe D
District 13 Purple
VAP: 78.2 W, 7.7 B, 9.1 H
2008: 58.7 Obama
Open. MontCo and Berks County, including Reading. Removed from Philadelphia, this is now a truly suburban district, and strongly blue, though not safe considering Republican's downballot strength in SEPA. Likely D
Zoomed Out
District 4 Red
VAP: 95.1 W
2008: 36.1 Obama
Incumbent Scott Perry (R-Carroll Township) lives here. Sort of a remainders district, centered mostly in Lancaster and York County. Joe Pitts would probably also want to run here, if he's still in Congress in 2020, but it might be too far in the other direction from his current district. Safe R
District 15 Green
VAP: 77.9 W, 5.9 B, 12.6 H
2008: 57.4 Obama
Incumbent Charlie Dent (R-Allentown) lives here. The Lehigh Valley, principally Allentown/Bethlehem. 5 points bluer than the current PA-15, Dent, while still quite a survivor, would have trouble here. Tossup
District 16Gold
VAP: 77.5 W, 9.6 B, 9.1 H
2008: 52.7 Obama
Open. Harrisburg, York, Lancaster and Lebanon. This was an attempt to unite those four cities as a community of interest. It's also slightly blue, so that helps. GOP strength makes this difficult to handicap, but I feel Lean R is a good place to start.
District 17 Gold
VAP: 91.6 W
2008: 55.7 Obama
Incumbents Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic) and Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton) live here. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and the Schuylkill Valley area. Barletta's 11th district is probably the one you can point to as the one that is more or less eliminated. While somewhat redder than the district Cartwright won in 2012, it will still be Likely D.
The "T" and Western
District 3
VAP: 91.2 W, 5.5 B
2008: 53.3 Obama
Keith Rothfus (R-Sewickley) lives here, but would likely run somewhere else like the 5th or 12th. Erie and down along I-79 to the Pittsburgh area. 8 points bluer than the current PA-3 and 4 points bluer than the old one, this would be a good opportunity for Keystone Dems. Tossup
District 5 Gold
VAP: 96.6 W
2008: 38.3 Obama
Incumbent Mike Kelly (R-Butler) lives here. Northwest sans Erie. This would likely be a primary battle between Kelly and Thompson and possibly Rothfus (assuming they're still in Congress). Advantage Thompson. Safe R
District 9 Black
VAP: 93.7 W,
2008: 36.6 Obama
Incumbent Bill Shuster (R-Holidaysburg) lives here. South central. Shuster would be safe except in a primary as this district gets 4 points redder. Safe R
District 10 Purple
VAP: 94.4 W
2008: 41.2 Obama
Incumbents Tom Marino (R-Lycoming Township) and Glenn Thompson (Howard Township) live here. Northwest and north central. 1 point redder than the current PA-10. Glenn Thompson most likely would run in the 5th. Safe R
District 11 Blue
VAP: 95 W
2008: 43.4 Obama
Open. South west. Formerly a stronghold of labor in the state, it has gone the way of most coal areas and is now strongly red. Tim Murphy was drawn into the 14th, but would run here. Safe R
District 12 Cyan
VAP: 87.3 W, 8 B
2008: 53.6 Obama
Open. State College, Altoona, Johnstown and northeastern Allegheny County. A four point bump from the old 12th and adding more strongly Dem State College, this would be a good comeback district for Mark Critz (Johnstown) or someone of his ilk. Lean D
District 14 Red
VAP: 81.5 W, 12.5 B
2008: 60.6 Obama
Incumbents Mike Doyle (D-Pittsburgh) and Tim Murphy (Upper St. Clair) live here. Tim Murphy would run in the 11th as I said. Pittsburgh and the remainder of Allegheny County. An 8-point drop from the old 14th, certainly nothing to sneeze at, but still Safe D
Thanks for reading, what do you think?