I want to start with, I think it's simple 19th century science that CO2 drives global warming. Anyone who disputes that is a flat-earther, as far as i'm concerned.
I think the vast amount of Co2 we are dumping in the atmosphere
will if left unchecked will cause the earth to become warmer.
I don't think global warming will destroy the planet.
Four billion years old, it's not going away. Our civilization?
Could that collapse? Sure. Could 90% of westerners die?
Could a large industrial civilization unwind leaving a few
generations on a bunch of bushes and clintons chucking rocks
at each other? Yep. Lots of big civilizations have fallen.
I also have some trouble with the complex models because they are sensitive to
initial conditions, which makes them somewhat useless for planning.
Now that said, simple models are probably good enough for policy planning.
However it doesn't mean that fairly simple models, of just CO2 emission can't
be used to look at what's going on.
So I was playing with some fo the models and we may have won.
More below
you can use this model as a simple planning tool
http://scied.ucar.edu/...
Our principal input is right now 10 Gigatons to the Atmosphere.
Hit Play and it's a mess.
Now the Obama climate plan is to reduce some 30%. Let's assume
he makes it happen, the Chinese push forwards and India does it.
What happens?
Set that to 7 Gigatons. The rate of growth slows but, it's still not good.
But What happens if we push to double the goals? We go to a 70% reduction
in Carbon.
Well, the growth just stalls.
Can we do that, as a global civilization?
Maybe it's already happening?
http://www.bloomberg.com/...
China’s emissions of carbon dioxide fell last year for the first time in more than a decade, helping stall global production of climate-warming gases. The finding, along with new data from the International Energy Agency, is a sign that efforts to control pollution are gaining traction.
Total carbon emissions in the world’s second-biggest economy dropped 2 percent in 2014 compared with the previous year, the first drop since 2001, according to a Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimate based on preliminary energy demand data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
Global carbon emissions from the energy sector were unchanged last year, the first time in 40 years that a halt or dip wasn’t associated with an economic downturn, the IEA said Friday in a statement. China and developed nations have encouraged investment in renewable energy and efficiency measures, decoupling economic growth from emissions, the IEA said.
and
http://thinkprogress.org/...
A new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has some good news for anyone who supports a greener American energy sector: 2015 will be a “transformative year” for U.S. power, as more natural gas and renewable energy will combine with fewer coal plants to create a 20-year low in U.S. power sector emissions.
“This should prove to be a watershed year for the ‘de-carbonization’ of the US power sector, with record volumes of coal-fired capacity to be shuttered, renewables capacity to be built, and natural gas to be consumed,” BNEF said in a press release, concluding that these three factors will combine to drive carbon emissions from the power sector to their lowest levels since 1994.
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First, 2015 is expected to be a record-breaking year for the installation of renewable energy, with around 18 new gigawatts (GW) of power coming online from solar and wind. The previous record, set in 2012, was 17.1 GW, and most of that came from wind plants built ahead of tax credit expirations.
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Around 7 percent of U.S. coal plants are expected to be retired in 2015. Low gas prices and new EPA standards limiting the amount of mercury, acid gases, and toxic metals that can be emitted from coal plants encourage utilities to take old coal plants offline, rather than spend money trying to retrofit them.
Let's look around, it's not that hard to put 5 KW of solar on 20% of american roofs.
Then it's not that hard to switch Automobiles to electrics.
battery prices are declining 7-8% per year.
http://www.greencarreports.com/...
http://www.greencarreports.com/...
According to the new study, published in the Climate Change section of Nature, costs fell 14 percent a year from 2007 through 2014.
More importantly, for the "market-leading firms"--such as Nissan and Tesla--the decline has occurred at a rate of about 8 percent a year, bringing today's cost to less than $300 per kilowatt-hour.
http://www.latimes.com/...
Now General Motors, in a dramatic model debut in Detroit, says it has unlocked the magic formula. Its Chevrolet Bolt concept car will travel 200 miles between charges and sell in the low $30,000 range, after government incentives, GM executives said. The spacious four-door hatchback will go on sale in 2017.
This is going to be the future of cars. In 5-10 years most cars will be electrics
and gas stations will be few and far between.
So if the power sector and autos move to renewables, what happens?
emissions can drop some 60%. So what's that mean?
we are in spitting distance.
Now frankly i think it's happening.
I've got a Chevy Volt, got it used, very cheap.
i'm getting solar panels cheap.
i'm a little early but over the next 2-7 years a lot of people will be doing the same thing
the economics of solar are so strong, it's just going to happen.
Same thing with EV cars.