It appears thatnext week's hearing at the SCOTUS is going to result in either a 5-4 or (more likely, at least in my opinion) 6-3 decision granting marriage equality rights in all 50 states and nullifying any and all existing state referenda and constitutional bans on same-sex marriage.
Such a day would and will be a milestone in both American history and especially in the history of gays and lesbians in this country. A little late to theparty,considering our values and founding principles, but at least catching us up with much of the Western world.
And yet the timing really, really scares the shit out of me.
Follow me below the orange Interstate highway junction, for the reason.
In 2003, the state of Massachusetts became the first state to legalize same-sex marriage. hat followed was ears and years of legal wrangling and maneuvering in an attempt to undo what the state legislature had done, including attempts to delay the law, amend the state constitution, call a state constitutional convention, redefine reciprocal recognition agreements, gubenitorial delays and countermeasures, ballot initiatives - all of which ultimately failed.
Flash forward to the Fall of 2004 - and the backlash to this victory was swift and nearly complete. The GOP used this victory as a base-inflamer and were able to drive a massive turnout of the Republican right - and in the process fueling both 31 states to implement same-sex marriage bans AND goosing George Bushs' vote totals enough to win reelection easily (especially in OHIO and FLORIDA and VIRGINIA). Without this issue......
My fear is, of course, this the timing on this victory is eerily similar to that in Massachusetts - a "victory" that prompted a backlash that had decade-long repercussions.
The fact that we now have 60%+ support for same-sex marriage is some consolation, but publilc polls at the time in Massachusetts showed nearly 50% support - above the national average - and it still took years before the issue wasa finally settled law in Massachusetts.
I fear that a similar backlash will occur in 2016 - just as in Massachusetts - and that this will drive GOP turnout to historic levels.
While I support the decision and take some heart in the shift in public opinion since 2004, we are REALLY going to have to work extremely hard to counter the inevitable backlash and fury-driven voter turnout that the religious right is going to generate from this perceived social issue loss.
And it scares the Hell out of me that public support for same-sex marriage in several important battleground states is nowhere near 60%.