President-elect Donald Trump continues to move at a swift pace, nominating members to his cabinet in record speed. His latest nominee, retired Marine Gen. John Kelly, is tasked with heading up the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) – a department that’s promised to be powerful and active during Trump’s time in office.
The question millions of Americans and immigrants alike have is, how will Trump’s selection of Kelly impact illegal immigration in the months and years to come? Namely, will there be mass deportations and the building of a border wall, like Trump promised his supporters thousands of times during the campaigning process? These are questions that can’t be answered immediately, but that doesn’t stop us from making educated assumptions based on past statements and behavior from the men in charge.
The Impact of Looming Deportations on American Business
While Trump and his supporters boisterously call for deporting illegal immigrants who supposedly drain the country of resources, what they fail to recognize is it’s these same immigrants who keep many of the country’s industries alive and well.
This is especially true when you study cities and towns located on or near the border. Take San Diego as an example. San Diego County features the third largest population of unauthorized immigrants in the state of California and the seventh largest population in the entire United States. Then consider the fact that 18 percent of unauthorized immigrant workers are employed in the leisure and hospitality industry. (For comparison, only 10 percent of U.S.-born workers are employed in the same industry.)
What would happen if Trump, Kelly, and the DHS were to suddenly support mass deportations (as unrealistic as they are)? The San Diego hotel industry would see major attrition. What happens when hotels start drying up? There’s less travel to the area, which hurts other businesses. When other businesses can’t pay their workers, this leads to unemployment. Unemployment leads to debt and foreclosure. Excessive foreclosures lead to a housing crisis, etc.
And this is just the impact of losing thousands of workers in a single industry in a single city. It’s easy to imagine how losing millions of workers in dozens of cities all over the country could have a swift and detrimental effect on the entire country.
What Will Happen?
There’s reason to be hopeful that Trump’s campaign speech was nothing more than campaign speech – an attempt to rile up his angry supporters. Since becoming President-elect, he’s gently backed off on some of his harsh rhetoric and isn’t quite as firm in his stance on building a wall and deporting immigrants. Take that for what it’s worth, but it’s at least encouraging.
It’s also worth noting that Kelly has expressed a somewhat more understanding approach to dealing with the influx of illegals from the southwest border.
Earlier this year, Kelly told Military Times, “We have a right to protect our borders, whether they’re seaward, coastlines, or land borders. We have a right to do that. Every country has a right to do that. Obviously, some form of control whether it’s a wall or a fence.” He continued, “But if the countries where these migrants come from have reasonable levels of violence and reasonable levels of economic opportunity, then the people won’t leave to come here.”
Ultimately, Americans can only hope that Trump doesn’t live up to his promises and that Kelly brings some common sense to the cabinet – though there’s not much to suggest that this will be the case.
The Danger of Mass Deportation Under Trump Presidency
We’ll leave you with this: According to a recent study, the estimated 2.6 million illegal immigrants living in California currently account for as much as 38 percent of the agriculture industry, 14 percent of the construction industry, and large percentages of other industries. While this isn’t necessarily a good thing, it does show how attached the American economy is to these immigrants.
As journalist Ruben Navarrette Jr. says, “…if the Golden State didn’t have illegal immigrants, it would have to invent them. And if California’s industries suddenly had to rely on a completely legal workforce and couldn’t hire another undocumented person, many of them would be out of business.”