The news came out tonight that Senator John McCain is returning to Arizona and will not be present in Washington, D.C. to vote on the Republican tax bill that is expected to come up for a vote this week. No one here is party to the factors in that decision; maybe he would’ve stayed if McConnell thought that his vote would be crucial, or maybe it’s reached a ‘nothing but family matters’ stage at this point. Either way, it is pretty certain that this indicates a serious downturn in John McCain’s medical condition. Best wishes for a merry Christmas together in the McCain household.
But, that said, this makes it look very much like there will be a second Senate seat on the ballot in November. For the Flake seat, it looks like Kyrsten Sinema is the likely Democratic candidate, and the only declared candidate who has any indications of support is Chemtrail Kelli, though her support looks pretty weak. Martha McSally was talked up as a potential challenger to Kelli, but my guess is that McSally will be pushing for the temporary appointment to replace McCain, which leaves the field wide open for Kelli. I don’t see any consensus on who might be the Democratic candidate for a replacement race — maybe Mark Kelly, Gabby Giffords’ husband, but then just imagine the ads! “Kelli is a clear nutjob, but Kelly is a respected former astronaut! So remember, vote Kelly, not Kelli!”
For my take on it (and I am not remotely a close follower of Arizona state-level politics, so others may have more insight), I think this makes it much more likely that Ward takes the Republican nomination for Flake’s seat, which in turn gives Sinema a very good chance of taking it over. If McSally gets the nod to replace McCain, then that leaves her in the driver’s seat for the Republican nomination for November — but it also means that her history of dodging questions, and of voting for Trumpcare in the House, would be front-and-center. Arizona law specifies that a replacement Senator sits until the next general election, so it WOULD take place in November 2018; they wouldn’t get the option of calling a special election early in hopes of sneaking through a low-turnout special.
All told, I think this news indicates that Democrats odds of taking Flake’s seat just went up, and McCain’s seat starts out as a toss-up as well. That makes three solid targets (Nevada and both in Arizona), with Tennessee and Texas in ‘hey, it could happen’ territory. Utah, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Mississippi, those still seem like they’d need a Moore-level colossal meltdown to bring them into play.
Anyone have any other analysis, theories, local insider gossip, or favorite candidates to suggest?