Latest news out of Arizona today courtesy of HighGround Public Affairs latest poll:
A statewide Arizona survey of 400 likely Arizona 2018 General Election voters shows Republican incumbent Senator Jeff Flake fourteen points behind his primary Republican opponent Kelli Ward and eight points behind prospective Democratic opponent U.S. Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema (D, AZ-9).
Q. If the primary election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kelli Ward?
28.2% Jeff Flake 42.5% Kelli Ward5.1% Some other candidate24.2% Don’t know, Refused
Q. If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kyrsten Sinema?
32.5% Jeff Flake40.5% Kyrsten Sinema27.0% Don’t know, Refused
The Republican Primary Election sample was of 273 high efficacy Republican and PND/Independent voters and has a margin of error of ±5.93%. The General Election sample of 400 high efficacy general election voters has a margin of error of ±4.88%.
The poll surveyed 400 likely Arizona 2018 general election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender. The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users. Anticipated turnout for the Arizona 2018 General Election has a partisan gap of Republican +12%.
Donald Trump is backing Kelli Ward in the primary but Flake is trying to just shrug it off:
“I don’t worry about it at all,” Flake told reporters in Arizona on Monday when asked about Trump’s criticism of him on Twitter, according to the Los Angeles Times.
In a tweet last week, Trump called Flake “toxic” and declared that the senator is “weak” on immigration issues and crime. The President applauded Republican state Sen. Kelli Ward for challenging Flake, an atypical move for a president.
Asked about Trump’s support for Ward, Flake said, “That’s not my realm. That’s somebody else’s. I just — I’m running my own campaign. It’s going well. And what the president does, that’s his prerogative,” per the LA Times.
While Flake isn’t acting like he’s worried, U.S. Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell (R. KY) is pretty scared about Trump taking out one of his own:
With just hours until Donald Trump’s visit to Arizona, the Senate Leadership Fund has released a blistering ad attacking Kelli Ward.
Last week, Trump attacked Sen. Jeff Flake as “toxic” and said it was “great to see” Ward in the race, creating speculation that he might endorse the former state senator at tonight’s campaign rally.
Cue the ad, from the superpac, which is closely aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell:
“One year ago, Arizona Republicans rejected Chemtrail Kelli Ward. Remember why?”
The ad goes on to recount some of her "embarrassing behavior" and “crazy ideas” – from holding her now-infamous hearing on the chemtrails over her northwestern Arizona district to blaming Sen. John McCain for ISIS to her recent call for McCain to resign just hours after he learned he had brain cancer.
This, so that she could take his seat.
The ad is a clear signal that Flake will have some sizable support to counter any Trump endorsement that may be forthcoming.
"We're not willing to throw this Senate seat away to Democrats by nominating a fringe candidate like Kelli Ward," Steven Law, Senate Leadership Fund’s president and a former McConnell chief of staff, told Politico.
Rep. Krysten Sinema (D. AZ) is seriously considering taking on Flake. Once she gets in, then we have a real shot here at taking this seat. Stay tuned.