Just a brief diary to draw your attention to a New York Times story to put a spring in your step and a song in your heart.
Young People Keep Marching After Parkland, This Time to Register to Vote
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Voter data for March and April show that young registrants represented a higher portion of new voters in Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, among other states. In Florida, voters under 26 jumped from less than 20 percent of new registrants in January and February to nearly 30 percent by March, the month of the gun control rallies. That ticked down to about 25 percent in April, as the demonstrations subsided, but registration of young voters remained above the pace set before 17 students and faculty were killed at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland.
In North Carolina, voters under 25 represented around 30 percent of new registrations in January and February; in March and April, they were around 40 percent.
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[Florida numbers]
And those new registrants lean Democratic. Of the new voters ages 25 and under in the state, a third registered as Democrats; 21 percent signed up as Republicans; and 46 percent registered as either unaffiliated or with another political party. For new registrants over 25, 27 percent were Democrats; 29 percent were Republicans; and 44 percent were independent or affiliated with a different party.
Grains of salt and dashes of cold water are always needed when forecasting electoral behavior, and frigid saline solution is provided in the Times piece by Michael McDonald of the United States Elections Project, who cites past off-year turnout numbersand GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who claims, “Bottom line is that so far we are not seeing any higher level of self-described interest in the election among voters 18 to 34 years old than in past off-year elections.”
But Mr. McInturff may be practicing for a graveyard whistling recital, as John Della Volpe of Harvard’s Kennedy School Institute of Politics is seeing not only a higher interest in politics in younger voters, but greater belief that they can make a difference.
Young voters typically vote at a lower rate in part because of a belief that their vote will not affect meaningful change. But the data from Harvard shows that the percentage of young voters who disagreed with the statement that “political involvement rarely has any tangible results” rose to 36 percent this spring from 27 percent in spring 2016, and the number who agreed dropped to 22 percent from 26 percent. “That’s a net difference of 13 points in two years,” Mr. Della Volpe said.
Again, salt, cold water, deep breaths. But it is hard to ignore the potential for a wave not only blue, but young and lasting.
It turns out that “putting a gun to my head” really can motivate people when it’s more than a metaphor.