Traditional polling questions measure what people say is important, not what actually influences their choice and enthusiasm. Social-psychology has taught us that people can’t say what determines their behavior for one simple reason: people don’t actually know what causes their own behavior. When asked, of course, Democrats point to the economy, healthcare, security, and Trump’s bizarre behavior as the issues that determine their vote. In reality, none of these issues has the potential to turn apathetic Democrats into enthusiastic Democrats.
A new survey, Election Direction 2018 spoke with 1039 registered voters in May and June of 2018. The survey identifies the issues that affect enthusiasm using the same techniques that major advertising companies use, which are based on breakthroughs in social psychology. The survey finds that Democratic candidates shouldn’t waste their time campaigning on immigration restrictions, or on impeaching Trump or on legalizing marijuana. Similarly, focusing on the corruption of Republicans may be cathartic but it isn’t the stuff that enthusiasm is made of.
To generate enthusiasm, Democratic candidates should focus on the differences between themselves and their Republican opponents on preserving Social Security and addressing women’s concerns. These issues both build Democratic enthusiasm and deflate Republican-leaning voters’ enthusiasm for Republican candidates.
Two more strong issues for Democratic candidates identified by the survey are raising the minimum wage and sensitivity to LGBT concerns. These topics get Democrats excited and do so without motivating Republicans to vote in the opposite direction.
Some issues, like maintaining anti-pollution regulations, keeping abortion legal, and outlawing assault rifles, will only be effective when the voting population already leans Democratic. These messages engender a lot of Democratic enthusiasm but risk generating a backlash, increasing Republican enthusiasm for Republican candidates.
What about those Trump supporters? The survey suggests that Democrats need to let them go, Trump supporters simply can’t be reached. They voted for and support Trump not because of the issues and not because of economic insecurity, no matter how many pundits claim this on cable news. They support Trump because of ethnic insecurity. People who agree that “minorities are becoming too important in this country” were 9 times more likely to vote for Trump, and that answer is the single most reliable way of identifying a Trump voter. Converting solid Trump supporters would mean appealing to their ethnic insecurity and that is neither a moral nor a winning strategy for Democratic candidates.
The polls and pundits are paying attention to what voters say is important. But if Democrats want to win they need to realize that what people say is important is not what makes them enthusiastic voters. The polls and pundits have it wrong.
Visit the Election Direction website for further recommendations, complete survey detail, and contact information.