A bipartisan spending compromise reportedly reached by Republicans and Democrats proves one thing: One of the only times GOP lawmakers will defy Donald Trump is when their jobs are on the line—and their jobs are on the line.
The last thing GOP leaders want this fall is a catastrophic government shutdown just weeks in advance of a midterm election that will be a referendum on their governance. Meanwhile, the preternaturally self-absorbed Trump has been seesawing back and forth on whether he might shut down the government over funding for his precious border wall. Though Trump has recently appeared to back off that threat, GOP lawmakers couldn't take any chances.
Party leaders on both sides of the aisle have therefore negotiated a $147 billion two-bill spending deal that funds about two-thirds of the government but leaves a fight over Trump's border wall for another day. The Senate passed the bill 92-5 Wednesday night and the House vote is expected to commence Thursday. Lawmakers will then craft a stop-gap measure to fund the Department of Homeland Security—the agency that will eventually handle Trump's border wall—through December 7, just past the midterms.
The overall package will bundle together the two funding bills for the Department of Defense and the Departments of Labor, Health and Humans Services, and Education with the short-term funding patch for Homeland Security in a way that's intended to tie Trump's hands. Politico writes:
If Trump vetoes it, he would force a shutdown — which would include a shuttering of some Pentagon operations. [...]
But negotiators said in a rare public meeting that the finalized package would largely strip out partisan language favored by House Republicans. That means lawmakers rejected attempts to defund Planned Parenthood or destabilize Obamacare, as well as a slew of other perennial conservative riders.
Once again, Republicans were forced to make concessions in the package based on the fact that they would need Democratic votes in both the House and the Senate to be successful.
The two bills together notch significant spending increases for Fiscal Year 2019, which won't please deficit hawks but will allow Trump/Republicans to claim a win on increased funding for the Pentagon while giving Democrats bragging rights for putting more resources into priorities like HHS.
The so-called "minibus" package is expected to get a final vote in the Senate next week followed by House vote the week after that, barely ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline.