As events unfold unpredictably in the days ahead, with the U.S. enhancing its already stiff economic sanctions on Iran and giving analysts in the media and elsewhere ambiguous—and, let’s face it, weird—stories to speculate on and ponder which are lies and which are true, it’s important never to forget why this situation arose: Donald J. Trump. Or rather, his narcissism, hubris, ignorance and, of course, his outright hatred for anything the man who preceded him in the Oval Office accomplished.
Not that others haven’t been involved in shaping the tactics-without-a-strategy that now characterizes America’s chaotic and thoroughly counterproductive foreign policy. The problem for Trump now, as he tries to persuade everyone that he’s really against another shooting war in the Middle East, is that he adopted a policy that has led Iran to shoot down a U.S. drone and stand at the brink of putting a match to the nuclear agreement Trump has excoriated since his campaign for office began.
When Barack Obama left the presidency two and a half years ago, that multilateral nuclear accord between Iran and the five nations with the largest nuclear arsenals on the planet, plus Germany, had been doing what it was designed to do: steering Tehran’s leaders away from the kinds of nuclear development that could mean the building of uranium- or plutonium-based nuclear weapons if Iran should choose to do so. Getting there was a tough diplomatic dance all around and took six months of back-channel talk followed by 20 months of negotiations that seemed on the verge of collapse several times.
Nobody got everything they wanted. But each got something valuable. And the world got to breathe just a little bit easier than before.
Tehran had to plug its unfinished reactor at Arak (a heavy-water model that could produce plutonium); vastly reduce the amount of uranium concentrated into uranium hexafluoride that it could stockpile for fueling electricity-generating reactors; enrich uranium no farther than the 3.67% level useful as fuel; shut down the bulk of centrifuges used to achieve that concentration; limit or stop research and development in various areas; and allow repeated intensive inspections of its nuclear facilities, something no other nuclear power or would-be nuclear power has allowed. In return, the economic sanctions that had been imposed on Iran to nudge it toward the negotiating table would be gradually removed, frozen Iran assets released, and foreign investors not penalized for funding projects in the country.
When President Obama left office 18 months after the nuclear agreement was signed, the International Atomic Energy Agency, charged with responsibility for verifying through on-site inspections that Iran was complying with all those provisions, had stated in six quarterly reports that it was.
Sixteen months later, in May 2018, when Donald Trump announced the unilateral U.S. withdrawal from the agreement and reimposition of some sanctions, gobsmacking our allies that thought this was a terrible idea, Iran was still in compliance.
Just as it was 12 months later on May 2 this year when tough new sanctions were imposed. These were designed, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has told us repeatedly, to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero. Already those exports have been cut to somewhere around 700,000 barrels a day, which is 2 million barrels a day fewer than they were 13 months ago. Exports could be 300,000 by year’s end, according to petroleum analysts. Since those exports reportedly provide about 60% of government revenue and 80% of foreign exchange in Iran, the impact has been, by all accounts, devastating. Trump apparently figured that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps would be crying uncle by now and on their knees seeking mercy and ready to accept a stricter deal.
Today, as the White House doubles down and imposes more sanctions, Iran is still in compliance with the nuclear accord, despite the economic damage. But probably not for long. Rouhani says Iran is stockpiling more low-enriched uranium and, if sanctions aren’t removed by July 7, will begin enriching it to levels that would make it easier and quicker to build nuclear weapons.
Obviously, this situation didn’t need to happen. There were more than a few warnings two years ago that withdrawing from the agreement would make the Middle East and the world a more dangerous place. Which it clearly has done.
Many people, including some prominent Democrats, have believed since it was signed that the Iran agreement is flawed and needs to be tougher on Iran, and they’d like it to be in force for more years.
Right-wingers have always wanted more than that. They seek an agreement to all but dismantle Iran’s nuclear program permanently, want Iran to stop supporting rebels and terrorism, want an end to its ballistic missile tests (though the CIA has helped the Saudis obtain accurate long-range ballistic missiles). Pompeo’s list of demands for Iran to get out from under the sanctions calls for what amounts to complete submission in matters that no sovereign nation wanting to remain one will accept.
Trump could have taken a different approach. He could have built on the goodwill and connections created by the Iran nuclear agreement under Obama to initiate multilateral negotiations on ballistic missiles and proxy wars. If those could be achieved, then alterations in the nuclear agreement—particularly how long certain provisions remain in effect—could be subsequently negotiated. No rush. When Trump stepped into the Oval Office for the first time, the agreement had 8½ to 13½ years to run. Plenty of time for confidence-building by both sides.
Instead, he took us down the path demanded by the ultrahawks and encouraged by his own sense of brilliant dealmaking, we found ourselves on the precipice last week. And took only one step back.
One need not have any love for the theocratic authoritarians running Iran today to want to avoid a shooting war with them. Their human rights record, their anti-Semitism, their treatment of women and LGBTQ people, their phony democracy, and their corrupt revolutionary zealots make Iran an oppressive place to live even in prosperous times. But equally bad autocracy in Saudi Arabia hasn’t stopped the U.S. from remaining a strong “ally” of the Saudis nor has it stopped the sales of billions of dollars in weapons to the kingdom.
Trump told Chuck Todd in an interview on Meet the Press Sunday that he has both doves and hawks to advise him, getting a dig in at John Bolton, saying, “If it was up to him he'd take on the whole world at one time.” That kind of assessment and the decision not to bomb targets in Iran this time may seem to ingenuous naïfs proof that Trump at least has some good sense. The trouble is that Trump is the kind of guy who listens to the advice of the last guy he talks to. That could easily be Bolton next time. The hawks may have lost a battle. But they’re still hoping to get their war.