In the last 24 hours, Biden’s stock has sharply improved in FiveThirtyEight’s forecast. Yesterday, he was a 71 percent favorite. But today, he shot up to 74 percent. What changed?
Well, if I had to hazard a guess, the driving factors had nothing to do with Woodward’s bombshell from earlier today. Two decent-quality polls from Texas show Biden and Trump practically tied.
Yesterday, a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for Giffords PAC shows Trump with only a one-point lead over Biden, 48-47. Tellingly, this is from a sample that skews red—41 percent Republican, 37 percent Democratic. Tellingly, Biden has peeled off seven percent of Trump’s 2016 supporters. Then today, Morning Consult found this race a flat-footed tie, with both Trump and Biden pulling 46 percent.
How big is this? Well, Nate presently has Trump winning Texas with 51 percent of the vote. Consider that only the Clintons have kept the margin in Texas in single digits over the last four decades. Given that history, if Texas is at all close on election night, Biden is already well on his way to victory. By my reckoning, if Texas is within six points, the worst-case scenario is a 319-219 Biden win—with Biden flipping Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona.
And there two very big indications it could be that close. TX-03, in the north Dallas burbs (Plano, Allen, Frisco), is only rated “Lean Republican” by Cook Political Report, and internal polls show incumbent Van Taylor below 50 percent. This in a district that has been the classic Texas suburban Republican district for half a century.
Plus, the GOP may be in trouble in another historically rock-ribbed suburban conservative district, TX-31 (Round Rock, Temple, Killeen). PPP recently dropped a poll showing Trump only up one there, 48-47. How big is this? Well, Jesse Lehrich, Hillary’s former foreign policy spokesman, tells us.
One has to wonder if the actual state of play in Texas is closer to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, which has Trump only up 0.8 over Biden. Any way you slice it, Texas is in play.
To underscore how huge it is for Texas to still be on the board this close to Election Day, consider this—it is literally mathematically impossible for a Republican to win the White House without Texas. Take Texas away from Trump’s raw 2016 electoral vote total, and he drops to 268. Indeed, if you take Texas away from Bush 43’s raw totals, he’s way below 270. Specifically, 239 in 2004 and 252 in 2004.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas stays light red, if only because of the Panhandle, Permian Basin and Lubbock. But if Biden were to somehow pull it off, Katy bar the door—Trump has probably been Hoovered, with Biden taking well over 400 electoral votes.
The fact Texas is still on the board is a sign that we still need to GOTV. Biden’s this close in all likelihood by peeling off people who have voted Republican all their lives in a state where, for a long time, people walked in, pulled the Republican lever, and walked out. At the very least, we can make Trump bleed his bank account dry defending a state that has long been an automatic deposit in the GOP bank account.