In the spirit of
emjaycue's excellent diary entry I decided to try a little number crunching myself. To make things a bit simpler, I haven't done the state by state, but I've made the following assumptions:
- Edwards beats Kerry by 10% (45 v 35)
- Dean gets 15% in states representing half the remaining delegates, and no delegates in the other states
- Rounding errors can cancel nationally :)
In this scenario, it works out that Kerry gets 40% of the remaining delegates, Edwards 52% and Dean 8%.
This leaves Kerry in almost the same position as emjaycue suggested, on 1691, knocks Edwards down to 1593, but gives Dean 481. Dean can push Kerry over the magic 2162, and gets within spitting distance with Edwards (88 votes short). With 546 outstanding superdelegates, Dean almost certainly gets to choose our candidate...
I'm not claiming it's a likely scenario, but it's an interesting one :)