Now, I just posted a diary on this, but it has a very long block text quote, so I thought I would briefly paraphrase what I found particularly interesting, because I think Cook really knows his stuff. More below.
- As much as 1/5 of eligible voters do not use landlines anymore, and they are not polled. This is not just speculation on Cook's part. And from personal exp. (I don't use a landline, and live in a house with 7 other Kerry voters, 5 of whom do not use our houses landline), this is probably not as far-fetched a possibility as some might think.
- South Carolina is the most conservative state in the South. Really? I'd like to know why Cook believes this. I've been to SC, and its pretty damn conservative, but Kerry is actually not all that far behind (I'm not saying he's going to win SC, because he clearly has no shot).
- There is no historical model for this election. Forget 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000. Cook says all analogies can be easily dismissed and that each election has to be judged on its own terms.
- Bush's approval ratings and horserace numbers are on the cusp of predicting defeat. However, John Kerry does not provide the kind of "interesting" alternative narrative other succesful challengers of incumbents have had (he uses Carter, Reagan, and Clinton as his examples)
- Bush has no shot in NJ. The Dems have no shot in VA or NC.
- state polling available to the public (ie not more extensive, expensive, sophisticated internal polls) on many of the closest battlegrounds are not at all reliable in such a close election. Cook believes a quarter of them are "garbage" and and another quarter are "very questionable." He refers to them as "$3 polls flying around the internet."
- Kerry campaign has been decent, but has improved in the last month. Bush's is the most disciplined in Cook's memory.
- Events in Iraq during the next 2 to 3 weeks could well be decisive.