Here are some thoughts on last night's special elections.

OH-05 yielded a disappointing result, certainly. I didn't think we'd win the district, but I thought we had a decent shot at it, and I certainly expected a narrower margin than 14 points (almost exactly the same result as in 2006). Evidence from the last week certainly seemed to indicate that the race would be significantly closer than it was.

That said, the NRCC outspent us 2-1 to hold Robin Weirauch to the same margin she received in 2006, which was a historically bad year for Republicans. She received that in a year when Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown were winning landslide victories across the state. Last year was the worst year for Republicans in OH-05 since 1982, and they had to spend $500,000 just to tread water there.

Let's not forget: $500,000 is a luxury they can't afford. As of last filing the NRCC had $2.6 million in the bank, $3.6 million in debt. They just spent nearly 20% of what cash they had to hold us to a historically great performance in a deeply red district.

They won't have the luxury of outspending us 2-1 next year; given the money advantage we currently enjoy, it seems more than likely we'll be able to outspend them across the board.

The Republicans are still trying to pretend that 2006 was an aberration. Yet they have to go all-out, it seems, to hold the ground they already have.

Yes, I was hoping for a better performance in this district. Yes, I'm disappointed.

But if the Republicans have to outspend us 2-1 to prevent us from gaining ground on a historically great year, I am still very optimistic about 2008.

If they have to waste such large sums of money to protect OH-05, I can't even imagine what they'll have to do in more naturally competitive districts like NM-01 or IL-10.

It's odd that while this district received quite a bit of national attention, no party leaders, Democratic or Republican, went into OH-05. Boehner's absence from the district (and presence in VA-01) has been well publicized. We did have some big names campaign there, like Strickland and Brown, but no national party leaders.

Speaking of VA-01, I'm not at all surprised that Wittman won easily, although I am surprised that Phil Forgit appears to have slightly underperformed Kerry in the district. The NRCC had to spend here, too, just to be safe, and that is some consolation.

Race tracker wiki: OH-05 VA-01

Cross-posted at OpenLeft - I'm doing a lot of speculating in this diary based on incomplete evidence, but considering that DC insiders want to take Iraq off the table, chime in.  It's not like they have all the answers.

The race is done by a with a roughly 57-43 margin.  After going over the paid media messaging by the two candidates, I have a few thoughts on what happened here.  The first question Democrats should be asking themselves is why Robin Weirauch didn't mention Iraq in her ads, and the second question is whether not mentioning the issue that ranks number one on the list of voter concerns had anything to do with Weirauch's unremarkable loss in OH-05 tonight.  It might also be worth noting that Weirauch didn't mention she was a Democrat in her ads.

More room to chat since the vote results are still but a trickle.

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

So now it's off to count the votes. The results will be updated here. At least in theory, if we don't crash the Secretary of State website with obsessive refreshing. But SoS offices are getting better at keeping their sites going during election nights. So keep your fingers crossed.

Meanwhile, Republicans will hold their seat in VA-01 with a seemingly comfortable margin.

-----

And here are some 2006 baselines courtesy of James L at Swing State Project. You can see the county vote results here.

Race tracker wiki: OH-05 VA-01

CQ:

Scenario 1: Latta wins narrowly.

The Democrats would spin a narrow loss in Ohio as something of a victory, in light of the normally strong Republican performance in northwestern Ohio, and brandish an unexpectedly close result as further evidence that voters want change.

Democrats would adopt the same arguments that Republicans employed after an Oct. 16 special election in Massachusetts’ 5th District, where Democrat Niki Tsongas defeated Republican James Ogonowski by a relatively narrow 5 percentage-point margin in a constituency that had long elected Democrat Martin T. Meehan by wide margins. An NRCC post-election release was entitled “The Democratic Wave Breaks” and described Tsongas as “underperforming,” adding that the close race proved “a major shift in the national political environment.” Look for the DCCC to also describe a narrow Latta win as subpar.

The Republicans would say that a win is a win, and that Latta’s victory, however narrow, amounted to a Republican “hold” in a state where the political environment has been poisonous for Republicans, even 13 months after the Democratic landslide victories of Ted Strickland for governor and Sherrod Brown for senator.

Scenario 2: Weirauch wins narrowly.

This shocking result would reverberate in national political circles and deliver a big psychological blow to House Republicans about halfway into the 2008 election cycle, and a little more than a year after they lost 30 seats and the House majority to the Democrats.

Democrats would hail the result as repudiation of the Bush administration and further testimony of the strength that the Democratic Party showed in the 2006 elections, especially in districts that normally vote Republican.

Republicans would portray a Weirauch victory as an aberration and assert that she is unlikely to be re-elected in November 2008, when she would have to share a ballot with a Democratic presidential nominee who is more likely than not to lose the 5th District.

Republicans might also attribute a Latta loss to the fractious Republican primary election on Nov. 6 — especially if there is evidence of a depressed Republican turnout Tuesday in areas sympathetic to state Sen. Steve Buehrer, Latta’s chief primary opponent — and also to the Club for Growth, the conservative political organization that backed Buehrer and aired television ads critical of Latta’s record on tax issues during the primary campaign.

Scenario 3: Latta wins handily.

Just a few weeks ago, this appeared to be the likeliest of the three scenarios, given the strong Republican lean of the Ohio’s 5th District. Now a big Latta win surely is the least likely possibility, given how Republican officials have felt compelled to go into overdrive to criticize Weirauch’s views in the waning weeks of the campaign and to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on anti-Weirauch television advertisements. Latta and the NRCC — which has been pinched for cash since the GOP lost its House majority — would almost surely be ignoring Weirauch if Latta were safely ahead.

But should Latta somehow win decisively — say by 10 percentage points or more — the Republicans would claim a big victory in a state where Democrats made ample gains in 2006, and also argue that the results were a setback to a new House Democratic leadership that was supportive of Weirauch’s candidacy.

The Democrats would say that outcome is typical of a district that backed Bush with 61 percent of the vote in 2004, and that they made the Republicans expend several hundred thousand dollars that otherwise could have gone to bids to recapture some of the seats that they lost to the Democrats in 2006.

We already won, given the broke NRCC was forced to spend a fifth of their cash on hand on an R+10 district, so worst case scenario for us -- Latta wins by more than 10 points -- means only that the district stayed true to its partisan rating yet cost the NRCC nearly half a million in precious funds. Not a bad outcome. Anything closer than that, and we prove that Republicans face a hostile electorate and won't be able to fully lean on their district's partisan ratings.

If the second scenario happens, expect a flood of retirements as Republicans everywhere pass up a tough reelection battle in a toxic environment for Republicans. \

Update: This is hilarious!

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

[Promoted by DHinMI]

Disclosure: I am volunteering out of the Robin Weirauch for Congress campaign headquarters in Bowling Green.

Polls are open here until 7:30pm, so there's three hours till polls close. The verdict so far? Because of the weather we believe turnout is low. But nobody knows if that is good or bad. It's doubly important that if you know anybody living in the district, you call them now and ask them to go vote for Robin. If you're on Facebook, you can use this event to invite your friends and family to go vote. But a personal phone call is probably best.

The weather is pretty uniformly bad. It's been raining or misting or about to rain all day. At least it isn't icy out. Supposed to be in the upper 30s for the rest of the day.

Ohio Daily Blog and Buckeye State Blog have been offering up great coverage all day, be sure to go read their posts.

For results tonight, check out the SOS website.

It's now just 2pm and voters in Virginia's 1st Congressional District have been going oh so very slowly to the polls to vote in today's Special Election.  

Howard Dean sent an email to arrive in every Democrats inbox this morning, the Democratic Party of Virginia has actually paid some young Democrats to do flushing, but only 1 of the 12 precincts I've visited had Democrats working outside.

With 443 thousand registered voters turnout is expected to be light.

VA-01 went 60% for Bush in 2004, in 2005 Governor Tim Kaine did not carry the district (one of only 2 of 11 did not go for Kaine) in 2005, and despite Quantico Marine Corp. HQ being in the District Senator Jim Webb did not carry it in 2006. But Democrat Phil Forgit has a real chance to win today.

Holy smokes.

From the Politico:

President Bush won 61 percent of the vote in the district in 2004. But a poll conducted for Latta’s campaign last week showed him trailing Weirauch by four points, according to a GOP operative.

And the money streaming into the Bowling Green-based district from both sides confirms the very real concerns that Republicans have about the race. The National Republican Congressional Committee has poured in more than $428,000 — nearly one-fifth of the committee’s entire campaign account — for advertising, direct mail and phone banks within the last week.

As you know, the DCCC has countered with $250,000 in the district as well, and now we know why.

Yes, it's a very Republican district. Yes, the DCCC's own internals don't show numbers quite this good. Yes, the only important poll happens tonight in the actual election (this poll was commissioned last week).

Still, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about this race. Weirauch has run unashamedly as an economic populist and opponent of free trade, and not only has she withstood the GOP's attacks on her "extreme liberalism", she has gained real traction in a district where Democrats simply are not supposed to compete.

And since the GOP has made it clear that they intend to run, both here and nationally, by using immigration and brown people as a scarecrow, a victory here would throw their entire strategy for 2008 into serious doubt (not to mention, it would be a victory for those of us who believe the GOP's demonizing of immigrants is hateful).

In a sense, we have already succeeded in this district by getting the NRCC, already in serious financial trouble, to spend $430,000 on what should have been a gimme. And by waging a genuinely competitive race in this district, we've set ourselves up for a nice post-election narrative even if we lose: if Republicans are having trouble holding on to districts like this one, what will they do with the more balanced districts next fall? What effect will this have on potential recruits and donors who see strongly Republican districts nearly falling...or actually falling? Will they start to think their time and money might be best served elsewhere?

I don't want to get too carried away. I still wouldn't bank on us taking this election.

But so far, everything which we needed to go right, in order to win this district, has gone right.

Todd Hoffman has an excellent diary on GOTV for this election.

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

From long-shot to reality: the Ohio special election is now very, very winnable.  The Politico is now reporting that an internal poll conducted by Republican Bob Latta last week showed him trailing Democrat/Netroots Favorite Robin Weirauch by four points.  No need to rub your eyes, you read that right: Weirauch was beating Latta in a Republican internal poll.

We are approaching the goal line in OH-5, and we need everyone's help to put Robin Weirauch over the top. This will be a close race so every voter contact we make now until the polls close is critical.

If everyone here in the Daily Kos community commits to making 25 calls, we can reach out to thousands of voters across the district. In a race that could be won by 100 votes, will you be the one that puts Robin over the top?

You have the power to make a direct impact on this race. Are you up for the challenge?

Volunteer today for Robin’s Virtual Phonebank. It is easy to do and you can call from virtually anywhere.  Contact Jason at  phonebank4robin@gmail.com to sign up for Robin’s Virtual Phonebank.

Be part of a great Democratic Victory. Volunteer today!

Bob Latta cartoon after the fold.

Disclosure: I am volunteering out of the Robin Weirauch for Congress campaign headquarters in Bowling Green.

Today is the last day before Election Day. The crush of volunteers from the weekend is over, so the office is calmer. It’s the calm before the storm, the forecast for tomorrow is more bad weather. We’re still seeing volunteers streaming in to talk to voters. Everyone is talking about how this is going to be a close one, so nobody wants to leave that last door un-knocked, that last number un-called.

What we need now, is you.

Tomorrow is special-election day in Ohio's 5th district, and while the odds certainly favor the Republicans, they sure aren't looking like a party that's passionate about winning.

There's widespread discontent with the lackluster campaign of the GOP's chosen, Bob Latta. From subscription-only Roll Call (via James L. at Swing State Project), we get this:

The [GOP] Members are running around saying, 'What just happened?'" said a Washington Republican with knowledge of the district. "To put it bluntly, they're pissed off. People are angry that Bob Latta hasn't devoted himself better on the campaign trial to connect with northwest Ohio voters and given an opportunity to an opponent who was so far off the radar and actually made it a race." [...]

"It's like the Latta campaign is trying to write a handbook on how to lose a Congressional campaign in 60 days or less," said the Republican.

Indeed.

Perhaps that's why John Boehner, House Minority Leader and proud representative of the neighboring 8th district, is bravely staying away from this race. Boehner, the House's most powerful Republican, has eschewed campaigning here, electing to spend his time campaigning in a different special election, in Virginia's 1st District.

Never mind, of course, that his district is right next door; never mind that Democrats have gone all-in on this district and that there's a legitimate risk that the GOP may lose this seat. Boehner is too busy, it seems, hanging in Virginia (although Democratic counterparts Governor Ted Strickland and Senator Sherrod Brown are only too happy to help out Robin Weirauch).

Well, if Boehner won't help Latta out, perhaps Fred Thompson will? Unfortunately, Thompson shows about the same energy and vigor for campaigning in this web ad as he does in his own campaign (which is to say, none).

The Republicans have done what they can to try and raise money on the Intertubes, but unfortunately, they appear to be having some troubles guiding people to Slatecard, the GOP's pathetic counter to ActBlue. Seems, also, that there's more than a bit of Latta apathy online as well as offline. At last report, Latta had pulled in the lofty total of $1,908 on Slatecard, from all of 21 donors.

Compare that with the $92,616 Weirauch has raised on ActBlue (including $15,604 from Blue Majority; congratulations to you all), and we get a decent idea of Latta's online support vis-a-vis Weirauch's.  

But perhaps of greatest concern for the Republicans facing tomorrow's election is the possibility that turnout may be unusually low. The Republican primary in this district was exceptionally ugly, and Latta only won with 44%, to 40% for his opponent Steve Buehrer. Latta has apparently had a difficult time smoothing over his differences with Buehrer's old supporters, as the Lima News reports:

Following a negative, divisive and close primary in which the Ohio Elections Commission reprimanded Latta and fellow candidate Ohio Sen. Steve Buehrer for lying about each other, Buehrer supporters haven’t gotten behind Latta.

"You had four in 10 Republican voters supporting Buehrer. If they are disgusted by the negativity of that campaign or the outcome, and they stay home, it could really change the outcome of the election," Miller said.

Buckeye State Blog has a piece on the GOP's turnout concerns, which surely will not be alleviated by the weather (it's expected to rain, with temperatures in the 30s).

In the face of the discontent with the Republican candidate in the district, the Republicans, naturally, are doing the only thing they know how to do; they're spending boatloads of money (which, for once, they can't afford to spend), on ads designed to make people afraid of the monsters under the bed (in this case, Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, brown people, and Daily Kos. Wow, didn't see that coming).

This is going to be a very difficult race to win. Simply put, we just don't win districts this red very often. We currently have elected Democrats in exactly six seats with a higher Cook PVI. Latta has outraised Weirauch through the race (although she's done very well for a Democrat in this district), and the Republicans have thrown vats of money into this district: they're in for nearly $430,000, so despite the fact that they're having trouble drumming up excitement for their candidate, they're pulling out the stops to keep this district.

But, at the very least, we have a fighting chance in this district, and we have a candidate we can truly be proud of.

The GOP sees a chance they might lose a safe Republican district, and they've got a candidate who leaves them shaking their heads.

Update: Check out this diary from lpackard for reports from the campaign and information on phonebanking for Robin Weirauch.

On the web:
Robin Weirauch for Congress
Blue Majority ActBlue Page

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

Thanks to OrangeClouds115 for letting me use the VMD today to discuss a timely issue that can impact the OH-05 special election. An issue that has been overlooked so far in the OH-05 race that has massive potential to swing serious rural voters Robin’s way is the issue of factory farms (otherwise known as CAFOs—Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations). Rural America across the country is fighting for their  lives by battling these nightmares and OH-05 is ground zero in Ohio for many of these battles. I don’t think many urban Democrats understand just how emotional an issue this is for many folks. OH-05 is a majority rural district and the second most rural after OH-18 (Bob Ney’s old stomping grounds, now ably represented by Zach Space). Targeting trade agreements for outsourcing or manufacturing job loss is not nearly as resonant as in heavily industrial districts like Marcy Kaptur (who is next door) and Sherrod Brown’s old district.  

It should come as no surprise that Robin is on the right side of this issue while Bob Latta is firmly in the pockets of corporate agribusiness...

Okay, check this map out. The highlighted green is the fifth district, which we've been following all week. Look right below it, to the left. That's Ohio's 8th congressional district, which also happens to be the home of one John Boehner -- the House minority leader.

So his neighboring district is in serious distress. The broke NRCC has already dropped $410,000 into the state, or about 15% of their remaining cash-on-hand, and they've got about their entire Ohio and NRCC operations in the district trying to stave off unfathomable defeat in an R+10 district -- one that Bush won 61-39 in 2004.

But one Republican is steering clear -- the aforementioned Boehner.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) has no plans to campaign in his home state for GOP state Rep. Bob Latta, who is facing a competitive fight to hold a solidly-Republican seat in a special election next Tuesday.

Latta spokesman Matt Parker confirmed that Boehner is not scheduled to campaign in the district before the election. Boehner has not campaigned with Latta since he won the party's nomination on November 6.

“Bob Latta’s campaigning on his own merits. He’s campaigning his own way because he wants to go to Washington to do his own thing,” said Parker. “He has his own agenda. He doesn’t have to have John Boehner by his side.”

Boehner is, however, campaigning at a rally with the Republican nominee in a Virginia special election this weekend, aiding state Del. Rob Wittman in a less-competitive race on the same date.

In addition, Boehner also offered Wittman a rare public assurance earlier this week that he will work to secure the candidate a spot on the House Armed Services Committee.

Republicans had a nasty primary, and this may be a result of some of lingering hard feelings. It truly is odd to see Boehner go all out for the VA-01 race, while essentially leaving the desperately endangered Latta to the wolves.

At a time when the GOP faces its most hostile political environment in decades, internal divisions threaten to compound their pain.

On the web:
Robin Weirauch for Congress
Blue Majority ActBlue Page
Virtual phone banking help needed

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

The NRCC has a new web video about how terrifying Robin Weirauch is, and to make the point, they ominously detail all the ways she is the "darling of left-wing liberal extremists nationwide." And taking up the Republican establishment's obsession with Daily Kos where the NRSC left off, what should be on the screen under the words "darling of left-wing liberal extremists" but a Daily Kos entry on the race.

Before you decide to watch this video, I should warn you, it's pretty scary: Nancy Pelosi! Daily Kos! Brown people crossing a river! EMILY's List! Hillary Clinton!

Hey, at least it doesn't talk about where Markos goes on vacation. I don't know if I'd be able to sleep for weeks if they scared me that bad.

On the web:
Robin Weirauch for Congress
Blue Majority ActBlue Page
Virtual phone banking help needed

And lpackard lets us know that:

Also if you want to give money, it’s not too late. Yes the deadlines have passed for media buys, but the campaign is watching the ActBlue totals and making decisions every hour on if they can afford more cellphones, gas cards, etc. for GOTV. So every penny counts and is being counted.

Update by kos: On Wednesday, James L who is following spending on the race over at the Swing State Project wrote:

Even more expenditures from the NRCC -- $2700 for phone banks, $6K for a new poll, and $1400 to produce a new ad.  ($1400?  What, did they film that with a camcorder in Tom Cole's basement?)

Well, I think we've just seen the "ad" that the NRCC wasted $1,400 producing. Hilarious.

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

There’s a lot not to like about Bob Latta. He uses brown people as a scapegoat for the job losses in his district. He has ties to Big Oil. He questions the scientific validity of global warming.

But frankly, I'll let Bob Latta himself make the case for why he's such a crumb-bum.

During the bloody Republican primary election, Latta ran a nasty campaign ad against his primary opponent, Steve Buehrer:

Working with Taft? Taking money from Noe? Damn, I could have sworn I've seen an ad just like this one recently...but not about Buehrer.

Here's the first DCCC ad in the race, aimed squarely at Latta...

Sound anything like the behavior Latta decried in his Buehrer spots?

So let me get this straight, Rep. Latta. You are asserting, through that message you approved, that a candidate who carried water for Bob Taft (Latta voted for that gas tax he slammed Buehrer for sponsoring)...

...a candidate who took money from Tom "Coingate" Noe, last seen in federal prison (Latta's in for $1000)...

...a candidate who engages in dirty campaign tricks, like publishing blatantly misleading and dishonest campaign materials (especially one who, like our dear friend Bob Latta, was written up by the Ohio Elections Commission for so doing)...

You are asserting that such a candidate does not meet with your approval? That such a candidate is unfit for service in the US House? That Ohio voters should pick someone else?

Well, OK, Bob, if you say so.

On the web:
Robin Weirauch for Congress

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

There are some in the political community who put a lot of stock (no pun intended) in so-called political futures markets. These are exchanges where people buy shares in a candidate (or party) based on the belief they have in the victory of said candidate/party.

The political news blog DC's Political Report (which is part of my daily read, and should be part of yours as well) makes a point of including the latest lines from one such futures market, conducted by Inkling Markets.

Those markets have shown a lot of movement in the last two days. The beneficiaries? Democrats Robin Weirauch (OH-05) and Barack Obama. Follow me past the jump.

From the subscription-only Roll Call:

The amount of funding flowing into the ruby-red Buckeye State district has left many local political insiders, like Sandusky County Republican Chairman Adam Greenslade, scratching their heads.

“If the Democrats had a candidate like Paul Hackett [the Democratic nominee in a 2005 Ohio special election] running up here or another Ted Strickland-type candidate, then I could see this being in play and wanting to put some money in this race,” Greenslade said. “But I don’t see why you continue to throw money at Robin Weirauch. I just don’t get it.”

This is the sort of conventional wisdom that we've been fighting against for years -- not just against Republicans, who consider anything to the left of Genghis Khan to be "far left" and "ultra liberal" (rhetorical hyperbole is one of their fortes), but also against Democrats who believe "liberal" doesn't "play" in certain districts and states. Remember that many (including here on Daily Kos) whined that Sherod Brown -- one of the House's staunchest progressives -- was too liberal to win a state like Ohio. Instead, he crushed his "moderate" Republican opponent.

Weirauch wins here or even comes within a few points, and there will be many people like Adam Greenslade scratching their heads wondering why their demonizations and mischaracterizations of progressives is no longer resonating with the voters.

“I’ve heard that there are internal polls that show a 3-point race,” said Ohio Democratic consultant Dale Butland. “It would be shocking. If that district goes Democratic, then there would literally be no district in this state that would be safe for Republicans.”

A Republican insider with knowledge of the district said the special election “is easily within a 55-45” percent margin. “I think the DCCC knows that, otherwise there’s no way they would have put the money into it.”

Everything I've heard puts it beyond a "3-point race", which sounds more like rumormongering no matter how much we might wish it to be true. What I've heard is that it's "winnable" if "most of the undecideds break our way" -- a tough task under any circumstances. But that this race is even on the radar is shocking enough, and that Ohio consultant above is certainly right about one thing -- if Democrats pull this thing off, there will be few Republicans next year able to relax, no matter how "red" their district might be.

As a commenter at MyDD wrote:

If Robin Weirauch can win in this conservative, rural district, it means Democrats can win just about anywhere. A win would probably encourage a lot of Republicans to retire, including perhaps, Ohio Senator George Voinovich in 2010.

On the web:
Robin Weirauch for Congress
Blue Majority ActBlue Page
Virtual phone banking help needed

On a more depressing note, I see that Weirauch's media is being done by McMahon Squire Lapp and Associates. Steve McMahon, the biggest asshole sleazebag I've ever come across in DC. He's famous for ripping off the Dean campaign for millions while doing shitty work for it, but even last cycle he was behind the god-awful Darcy Burner ads. The best thing Burner did this year was fire his ass. So why does McMahon's firm get work like this? Because McMahon is still tight with Dean, and the "Lapp" in the name of the firm is the former executive director of the DCCC, so when they decided to dump money into this race, the "strings attached" was probably being forced to work with McMahon's outfit (and the fact they joined the campaign just a couple of weeks ago bears evidence to that effect).

I'll pretend our money isn't going into McMahon's pockets, that Rahm's contribution to this effort is paying for it. But in the future, I won't ask you guys to put your money into any campaign which hires McMahon's firm.

Update: McMahon's outfit is working directly for the DCCC. So money contributed to Weirauch isn't going to McMahon. Good.

Race tracker wiki: OH-05