Listening to a discussion of the Shaheen-Sununu rematch on NPR just now, I was struck by how Sununu's leading talking point was "I was first to oppose President Bush on lots of issues."
And Johnny S. isn't alone. From the presumptive nominee on down, GOP candidates are stumbling over themselves and each other to get to the "We Support the President" hall. Just google the phrase GOP candidates distance from bush and read the 268,000 results, if you have a couple of months on your hands.
But you know something? I think they're screwing up.
Yep, so at this point the sheer mass of polling data is such that it is time for me to tiptoe back into the water. The fact that school has let out for the summer (though I am teaching summer school) helps out, as well.
So today, the Following the Polls series that I began back in 2006 makes its permanent return. It will start as a weekly series (Friday seems to be the logical day), and then it will become daily once we get past Labor Day.
And, week one of the series sees a big polling week, as there are 35 separate races that were polled this week. Head past the flip for all the numerical goodness.
I know, I know...it's not likely, but a brother can dream can't he?
Following up on my post from yesterday and incorporating some of the suggestions/corrections from the comments made there, let's take a look at our best case scenario in the November Senate elections.
Right now, we're at 49 Ds, 49 Rs and 2 I's. When the smoke clears on election night in November we'll be at 62 Ds, 37 Rs and 1 I.
Here's how it's going to happen....
So with less than half a year to go, it’s time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
Follow me below the fold for all the races. This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
It's been five LOOOONG months since I last posted a Senate '08 diary. Back then, Fidel Castro still ran Cuba (in name, at least) and Iowa was anyone's game to predict. Two weeks before my diary was posted, a loon held Clinton's Rochester, New Hampshire office hostage for several hours. And about the time my diary was posted, the hottest news on Campaign Trail '08 was Sex On the City (if you don't remember, it's okay...it was Rudy Giuliani's 497th scandal of 2007).
Anyway, much has changed, and the Senate '08 picture has seemingly gotten brighter and brighter for the Democrats. Retaining a Senate majority seems just about assured, and expanding it significantly looks likely. That's what a basket-case economy and unanimously disdained President will do for the opposition party. Good times.
[I was having Internet troubles yesterday, which is why the roundup is going up today. My apologies! -brownsox]
NC-Sen: Still more exciting polling news out of North Carolina's Senate race: Republican Elizabeth Dole leads Democrat Kay Hagan by just two points, 45% to 43%.
Meanwhile, the venerable Cook Political Report has moved their rating of North Carolina's Senate race to "Likely Republican". Current momentum is certainly with Hagan, and it's already a close race, so there's every reason to feel good about our chances. In fact, I think this ranking is slightly conservative: Swing State Project has moved their ranking of NC-Sen to "Leans Republican", and I'd have to go along with that.
MS-Sen: Meanwhile, in the wake of dueling polls showing a tight race in Mississippi (one of them showing Democrat Ronnie Musgrove leading by 8 points, the other showing Republican Roger Wicker up by four), Cook has moved their ranking of MS-Sen all the way from "Likely Republican" to "Toss Up".
Having a top-tier Senate race in Mississippi is remarkable, and having that race called as a tossup nearly six months before the election is even more so. I think Cook's ranking may be very slightly generous-I'd call the race "Lean Republican", but it makes a good bit of sense.
NH-Sen: Rasmussen has released their latest poll out of New Hampshire, and it shows Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leading Republican incumbent John Sununu by seven points, 50% to 43%. In April, the numbers looked almost the same, with Shaheen leading 51% to 43%.
The polling numbers, particularly from Rasmussen, have been exceptionally stable, and they've consistently shown Shaheen with a substantial lead. I don't think she has this race locked down, not by a long shot, but what's not to like about a consistent lead?
OR-Sen: Well, that didn't take long; the Dark Side is already astroturfing Oregon papers with ads attacking Democratic Senate candidate Jeff Merkley.
An anti-union group run out of a Washington, D.C., lobbyist’s office has taken out full-page ads in Oregon’s two biggest daily newspapers questioning Senate candidate Jeff Merkley’s support for a change in how unions are formed.
The ads in The Register-Guard and The Oregonian Thursday argue against the "card-check" method of winning employee approval for unionizing private workplaces. Merkley, a Democrat, supports federal legislation allowing the card-check approach, while the Republican senator he is challenging, Gordon Smith, has opposed it.
Meanwhile, Merkley and his primary opponent, Steve Novick, held a unity event yesterday morning, enabling Oregon Democrats to turn their attention to the common cause of taking out Gordon Smith.
House Races
UT-02: Jim Matheson drinks your milkshake. He drinks it up!
Matheson continues to drive Utah GOP leaders nuts with his 2nd District popularity.
Bless him.
NY-13: In the fight to save the seat of disgraced incumbent Vito Fossella, the GOP is now 0-for-2 in recruiting. The island's great Republican prize, Richmond County DA Daniel Donovan, opted out of the race first, only to be joined by county clerk Stephen Fiala:
Republican County Clerk Stephen Fiala has taken his name out of the running to replace Rep. Vito Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) in the House of Representatives.
"My best judgment has led me to the decision not to run for Congress," Fiala told the Advance.
Fiala said he was concerned about his ability to raise money for the race and looking down the road, said he believed that the congressional district would be redrawn to favor a Democrat after the 2010 census.
This leaves State Senator Andrew Lanza as the leading GOP candidate should he decide to run. That's just fine by New York Democrats, who are fighting to gain control of the State Senate.
Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Diane Savino also will not run, which should help us avoid a primary and a State Senate opening.
AL-02, AL-03, AL-05: The Democratic tide has spread well into "red Alabama", as the Press-Register Reports. We have two, perhaps three hot House races in the state, including two pickup opportunities. I'd consider both of those long shots, but viable nonetheless, AL-02 especially.
But the 2nd Congressional District in Alabama's Wiregrass region is emerging as a surprise battleground.
Republicans have held the seat since 1965. After his first election in 1992, Everett never faced a serious challenge. In 2004, Bush carried the district, which includes Dothan and part of Montgomery, with 67 percent of the vote.
Between the two major parties, a total of nine candidates are now jostling for a chance at the seat in the June 3 primaries. But Democrats claimed a coup earlier this year when Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright chose to run under their banner after being courted by both parties. Campaign disclosure reports show that Bright is already attracting contributions from national party power-brokers such as House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md.
After the Democratic pick- ups in Louisiana and Mississippi, a Bright victory would "absolutely represent the next step in this march," said John Anzalone, a Montgomery pollster who is working for Bright and was also involved in the other two campaigns.
Bright had initially lagged in the fundraising game, but he has picked it up of late, as Swing State Project reports. National Democrats are very excited about Bright's candidacy.
Meanwhile, in the 5th District, things are looking good in our attempt to hold the seat of retiring Democrat Bud Cramer, despite the district's R+6.5 PVI.
Democrats have also scored some breaks in the race for the conservative-leaning 5th Congressional District, which Cramer has represented since 1991. Republicans have long eyed the seat as a prime pick-up opportunity.
While both parties face contested primaries, the presumed Democratic front-runner is state Sen. Parker Griffith, a wealthy retired oncologist from Huntsville who has already secured Cramer's endorsement. The best-known candidate in the Republican field appears to be Wayne Parker, an insurance agency executive from Huntsville who twice lost to Cramer in the 1990s.
In the 3rd District, young Democrat Josh Segall is waging a surprisingly strong campaign against incumbent Republican Mike Rogers. Kossacks clammyc and thereisnospoon conducted a BlogTalkRadio interview with Segall today, as a matter of fact, so check that out to find more about one of the best dark-horse candidates this cycle.
OR-05: As Swing State Project and Daily Kos had done previously, the Cook Political Report has changed their rating of OR-05 to "Leans Democratic", a reflection that they have about as much faith in Mike "I Don't Know What Cocaine Looks Like" Erickson, as we do.
CA-11: Dean Andal, chief challenger to Democratic incumbent Rep. Jerry McNerney, has had an impressively bad time fundraising these last few months. In the month and a half since last filing, Andal has raised a grand total of $11,000.
That's eleven thousand whole dollars! This, despite having spent the vast majority of his time in the State Assembly hangin' with lobbyists, and having high-profile friends like John McCain to help him out.
Andal's sitting on over $500K on hand, so he isn't exactly broke. But the fact that he just raised $11K in six weeks, and just over $100K in 2008, has to be some comfort to Jerry McNerney.
The presidential primaries are heading towards a not so climactic conclusion and so the time has come to focus some attention on the congressional races. I haven't updated the rankings since January and a lot has changed in the past 5 months, starting with the resolution of contested primaries in Oregon, Nebraska, North Carolina and probably Minnesota. Both parties have gone through final recruitment pushes, with the GOP playing a tragicomedic farce in New Jersey and suffering through one more round of failures in South Dakota and Iowa.
George W. Bush appears to desire the complete destruction of the Republican Party for the next forty years even more ardently than he wants to fund his war in Iraq. Or so I am lead to believe by a recent spate of incomprehensible policy decisions. He has given the Democratic Party an arsenal of tools to use against both John McCain, and nearly every Republican incumbent up for re-election in the Senate. It is July 4 in May!
Democrats in the Senate have been unable to pass a series of extremely popular and necessary programs due to stiff opposition from the Bush Administration and Senate Republican leadership. Instead of giving up, Democratic Leadership has attached the programs to the Supplemental Appropriations Bill which funds the War in Iraq. The President, who has suddenly discovered "fiscal responsibility," is threatening to veto the bill unless the offensive amendments are removed. His water carriers, Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) are working hard behind the scenes to insure that Republicans uphold the President's veto.
Senate Republicans who are up for re-election in November (or ever) face an unsettling dilemma.
OR-Sen: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley narrowly defeated Steve Novick yesterday to win the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. This race inspired a lot of passion over the last several months on behalf of both candidates, and I credit both men for running impressive campaigns.
Best to Speaker Merkley as he takes on Republican Sen. Gordon Smith in the fall. There's some very good news on the polling fron; a DSCC poll shows Smith leading Merkley by just three points, 45% to 42%. Better yet, Smith's approvals are abominable; he receives just 29% job approval, with 55% disapproving.
That's a big window of opportunity for Merkley, if the polling is correct.
NC-Sen: Reinforcing all the other North Carolina polling of the last couple weeks, SUSA's latest shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole leading Democrat Kay Hagan by just four points, 50% to 46%.
All the polls can't be wrong; Dole is in a box of trouble this cycle. She knows it, too, as the former NRSC chairwoman is suddenly going to her opponent on bended knee, begging for her to refuse national money for her race.
TX-Sen: Republican Senator John Cornyn, the target of a new VoteVets ad urging him to vote for the 21st Century GI Bill, has lashed out at the veterans' organization, and VoteVets has responded:
In today's edition of Roll Call, Cornyn's spokesman responded to an ad launched by VoteVets.org calling on Cornyn to vote for a new GI Bill by saying, "The anti-war crowd is determined to use our men and women in uniform for their political advantage, even if our national security is jeopardized in the process."
In response, Brandon Friedman, an Iraq and Afghanistan Veteran from Dallas, and Vice Chair of VoteVets.org said, "Senator Cornyn's response to veterans is ignorant, insulting, and beneath his office. The GI Bill has nothing to do with the decision to go to war, or the course in Iraq, nor would it jeopardize security. The GI Bill was a sacred promise enacted by President Roosevelt, and all we are asking for is that America not default on that promise."
Friedman added, "Further, to accuse veterans of using ourselves as a political football is pernicious and absurd. Apparently, veterans do not have the right to ask Senator Cornyn to do the right thing, or else we'll be smeared. At least we now know what Senator Cornyn thinks of those of us who served this nation in combat."
I am really at a loss as to explain how lobbying for the GI Bill endangers our national security.
CO-Sen: kos wrote earlier about the latest Rasmussen polling, which shows Democrat Mark Udall leading his Republican opponent, Bob Schaffer, by six points, 47% to 41%.
Frankly, after Schaffer's recent misadventures (both his "Mt. Macaca moment", and his unpleasant ties to Jack Abramoff and the Northern Marianas scandal, I'd almost hoped for more. But this certainly isn't bad, and things are only going to get worse for Schaffer.
AK-Sen: Kossacks clammyc and thereisnospoon will be interviewing Senate candidate Mark Begich at 5 PM Eastern today on BlogTalkRadio, in the lastest instalment of an excellent series of candidate interviews. If you're able to tune in, please do.
As a positive (re)introduction spot, I feel it hits all those notes it's meant to about reminding us what we had, and by (John Sununu's) absence, what we can do without.
KY-Sen: Bruce Lunsford has won his primary handily over Greg Fischer, and heads into the general election against Mitch McConnell. The most recent round of polling showed McConnell under 50% against Lunsford, leading 48% to 36%. It's going to be an incredibly difficult battle for Lunsford (who I don't like very much to begin with), but hopefully he can make McConnell sweat a little, and keep him from utilizing his legendary fundraising prowess to aid other Republican Senate candidates.
House Races
OR-05: Despite last week's scandal involving allegations of cocaine use, mistresses and abortions (quite a trifecta there for conservatives), Mike Erickson has won his primary in Oregon's 5th, and will face off against Democrat Kurt Schrader in the race to succeed Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley. I'd call this race "lean Dem" at this point.
MO-06: In one of the hottest races in the country, Republican incumbent Sam Graves holds a holds a 10-point lead over Democrat Kay Barnes, 49% to 39%, according to SUSA. The good news is that Graves is under 50%, which leaves a good opening for Barnes here. The DCCC will be deeply invested in this race, so hopefully they can use their tremendous cash advantage to help Barnes close this gap.
CO-04: Despite the solidly Republican bent of this district, surprisingly close races are getting to be a Musgrave Ritual. The internal polls of Democratic candidate Betsy Markey show her leading her Republican opponent, the odious Marilyn Musgrave, by seven points, 43% to 36%.
The best response the Musgrave campaign could give? Their own internals show Musgrave leading 47% to 42%.
Frankly, with nearly six months before election day, I would not be trumpeting a poll that shows me leading an opponent with inferior name recognition by just five points. If I were the incumbent.
But then, Musgrave is maybe not the wisest Rep in DC.
NH-02: Jennifer Horn, candidate for the Republican nomination against freshman Democrat Paul Hodes, sports an impressive new endorsement: Jackie Mason's.
As Blue Hampshire's Dean Barker notes in a must-read piece, this is a tremendous victory for hilarity, if not for civility. This is the man whose endorsement Horn welcomes:
Giuliani Drops Comedian Over Remarks
By DON TERRY
Published: September 28, 1989
Rudolph W. Giuliani said yesterday that the comedian Jackie Mason would no longer have a role in his mayoral campaign, after a newspaper quoted Mr. Mason as making racially charged remarks about blacks and Jews.
...''There is a sick Jewish problem of voting for a black man no matter how unfit he is for the job,'' Mr. Mason said. ''All you have to do is to be black and don't curse the Jews directly and the Jew will vote for a black in a second. Jews are sick with complexes.''
He went on: ''The Jews are constantly giving millions of dollars to the black people. Have you ever heard of a black person giving a quarter to a Jew? I never heard a black person say we have to help the poor Jews.''
Man, you've got to be a real piece of work if Rudy Giuliani kicked you off his campaign twenty years ago. And this is just one of many such statements.
From Dean:
Absolutely, positively, the dumbest decision to trumpet an endorsement I have ever seen, inside or outside of New Hampshire. I've got no words for the magnitude of stoopid needed to think this was a wise campaign decision.
NY-13: The New York Times has a good article on the battle for the nomination to succeed Vito Fossella in this Staten Island-based district:
Shortly after Mr. Fossella announced his decision Tuesday, two Democrats from Staten Island said they were interested in the seat: Councilman Michael E. McMahon, who has represented northern Staten Island since 2002, and Michael Cusick, a state assemblyman who represents an area in the center of the island.
"I am having earnest discussions with the other folks who are interested and the county leaders in Staten Island and Brooklyn," Mr. McMahon said Tuesday. "I’m hopeful that we can come to a decision very quickly. Because of the short time frame, it’s important that we unite around a candidate rather than having a primary fight."
Similarly, Mr. Cusick said that "ultimately, the goal is to win in November" and that "it would be preferable not to have a primary and for the Democrats to work things out."
There is still Mr. Harrison, who ran against Mr. Fossella two years ago and did better than any previous challenger, winning 43 percent of the vote. Despite being overlooked by Democratic leaders in Brooklyn and on Staten Island, Mr. Harrison issued a statement after Mr. Fossella’s decision became public. "I have not been running against Vito Fossella," he said. "I have been running for Congress and I will continue to do so."
On the Republican side, Staten Island DA Daniel Donovan and State Sen. Andrew Lanza are the frontrunners. The excellent NY13 blog has a good breakdown of all the rumored and declared candidates in both parties, and is eminently worth reading.
Normally, you'd think Senators facing tough reelection battles would want the highest-profile help their party had to offer. You'd think that for Republicans that would be the incumbent president -- but of course, Bush has the worst disapproval rating since they started measuring that.
So in this, as in so many things, McCain will be standing in for Bush, going on the road for New Hampshire's John Sununu, Maine's Susan Collins, Oregon's Gordon Smith, and Minnesota's Norm Coleman. Because, as the Cook Report's Jennifer Duffy says:
"The interesting thing about McCain is that he may not help anybody, but he's not a drag on anybody," she said.
Yet. He's not a drag on anybody yet. Because he hasn't yet faced a settled Democratic nominee. Because the traditional media has given him a free ride, rarely pointing out that on the votes that matter, McCain's no maverick. When the Republican party and George W. Bush need him, John McCain is reliably there for them.
How alike are McCain and Bush? MoveOn puts you to the (f'ing difficult) test -- a test a lot of reporters could stand to take before they write their next stories squeeing over all the awesome straight-talking maverickness. If they start writing the story of the John McCain who actually stands in front of them instead of the one in their heads, by November he'll be as much of a drag on Sununu, Collins, Coleman, and Smith as Bush is today.
NH-Sen:Rasmussen's latest poll shows Jeanne Shaheen maintaining her eight-point lead over Republican incumbent John Sununu. This race has sat comfortably in the top tier of Democratic pickup opportunities since Shaheen declared her candidacy, and it looks as though that is where it will stay. The New Hampshire race still looks like the strongest Senate challenge to a Republican incumbent this cycle.
NC-Sen: On the heels of the latest Research 2000 poll showing Elizabeth Dole with weak numbers versus Democrats Kay Hagan and Jim Neal (leading Hagan by seven points and Neal by 10), SurveyUSA has polled the Democratic primary race.
With just days to go before the May 6 primary, Hagan now holds a substantial lead over Neal, 38% to 17%. 35% of voters are still undecided, and Neal will have to take a large majority of those undecideds if he is to be the nominee.
OR-Sen: SUSA has polled this race as well, and in contrast to the North Carolina poll, this one shows the race tightening between Democrats Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley.
On the heels of Merkley's recent ad campaign, SUSA shows the race deadlocked, with Novick holding a statistically insignificant two-point advantage over Merkley. Last month, Novick led Merkley by 11 points.
At this point, I wouldn't even hazard a guess as to who is favored.
House Races:
IN-05, IN-07: Primary day in Indiana will also see three competitive races downticket. One is the Republican challenge to nutter Dan Burton in Indiana's 5th, one is the three-headed Democratic challenge to incumbent Andre Carson in IN-07, and one is the Democratic primary for Governor between Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger, which we'll look at in a separate post.
Burton has held his seat since 1982, but has recently come under fire for absenteeism (he apparently prefers taking golf trips to actually casting votes in Congress), and faces his strongest primary challenge in years from fellow Republican John McGoff. McGoff has established a cute little website called "Where's Dan Burton?" to underscore this fact. His attacks must be getting some traction, because Burton has spent $1.2 million to defend his House seat.
In the Seventh District, Andre Carson, who won a March special election to succeed his late grandmother Julia Carson, faces three Democratic opponents in his primary; state Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays, and former State Health Commissioner Woody Myers.
As the incumbent, Carson is certainly at an advantage, especially as he managed to fend off a surprisingly strong challenge from Republican Jon Elrod in winning his special election by 11 points. Still, with four serious candidates running, it's difficult to say what will happen, especially given the race's racial dynamics:
Carson hopes his brief experience in Washington sets him apart from his seven challengers.
He and two of those challengers — former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers and state Rep. Carolene Mays — are black, and some community leaders worry the crowded field will split the black vote. That could give state Rep. David Orentlicher, who is white, an advantage in the district, which is about two-thirds white.
IL-11: Republicans had been without a candidate in this district after the NRCC's favored recruit, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, dropped out of this open-seat race. They have apparently finally found a challenger to Democrat Debbie Halvorson, in the person of millionaire Marty Ozinga.
Ozinga has plenty of personal funds and has raised over $400,000 for the race so far, but he's deep in the hole against Halvorson, the Illinois Senate Majority leader, who has over $673,000 on hand and has already made the DCCC's Red To Blue List. IL-11 is a swing district with a PVI of R+1.1, so in a Democratic year, I like Halvorson's chances.
-CQ runs down the House races in the Midwest, and handicaps them here:
It's certainly inspiring to note the predominance of Republican seats on this list, particularly in the most competitive categories. For me, though, the biggest pleasant surprise is the listing of Joe Donnelly, Brad Ellsworth and Zack Space in the "Democrat Favored" categories.
Donnelly, Ellsworth and Space all represent Republican-leaning districts. The Indiana representatives hail from a state which has been reliably Republican in presidential election years, and has not given its electoral votes to a Democrat since 1964. These are precisely the kind of districts that a more vibrant and relevant Republican Party would have at the top of its target list. Nevertheless, at least by CQ's analysis, our Democratic incumbents are relatively safe.
MS-01: So the NRCC has responded to the $700,000 bombshell the DCCC dropped in MS-01...by throwing just under eight thousand whole dollars into the race. Meanwhile, the DCCC topped their previous investments with an additional $40,000.
The NRCC previously spent quite a bit here, so maybe they feel like they've done enough...but they better be damn sure if they're going to risk losing an R+10 district. I mean, that can't be good for morale.
If you thought 2006 was a good year for us when we picked up six seats, 2008 looks a GREAT DEAL better. It's been quite a long time since we've gone into an election cycle where the Repubs have, for the most part, written off FOUR Senate seats seven months before the election!
DSCC chairman Chuck Schumer stated that his committee will contest up to seventeen races in 2008. With our major financial advantages right now, there is a good change we can win at least six, and maybe up to nine races, which would put us at the magic 60 mark.
Hotline has a major round-up of Senate fundraising numbers; Senate Guru reformatted much of the information to be a little more readable, and has some thoughts.
I see lots of good news here. Democrats may be playing even less defense than expected. Only three Democratic incumbents -- Landrieu, Durbin, and Kerry -- have Republican challengers with more than $70k cash on hand, and Durbin and Kerry are safe nonetheless. That leaves a lot of room for Democrats to focus on open seats and taking out Republican incumbents.
And several of those Republican incumbents should be sweating the money situation. Al Franken outraised Norm Coleman ($2.2 million to $2.1 million), and Jeanne Shaheen outraised John Sununu ($1.2 million to $1 million); both Franken and Shaheen trail in the cash on hand department, but continued solid fundraising (and good polls in Minnesota and great ones in New Hampshire) is pretty damn sweet. Next door to New Hampshire, Maine's Tom Allen trails Susan Collins but has an impressive $2.6 million cash on hand.
In the battle for New Mexico and Colorado's open seats, the Udalls are kicking ass. New Mexico's Tom raised more than Republicans Wilson and Pearce combined, and holds a similar cash on hand advantage. Colorado's Mark outraised sweatshop-promoter Schaffer ($1.5 million to $1 million) and has nearly double the cash on hand.
Mark Warner continues to pull in ridiculous money ($2.5 million) on the way to joining Jim Webb in Virginia's senate delegation.
Unfortunately, in Oregon Merkley and Novick are underperforming financially, just as they've been showing other signs of weakness. And Texan Rick Noriega's totals (both money raised this quarter and cash on hand) weren't where they should be, though Burnt Orange Report points out that his fundraising picked up substantially in the latter part of the quarter, once it was clear he was the nominee.
But back on the up side, Andrew Rice pulled in an extremely nice-for-Oklahoma $431k. Oklahoma will remain a long, long shot, but Rice could outperform expectations -- that would be some serious map-expansion. Add in races like Alaska and Mississippi, where Democrats Mark Begich and Ronnie Musgrove may trail their opponents in fundraising but are polling well, and it continues to look like a great year for Democrats.
No one was going to pay much attention to this until after the New Hampshire primary, but in the two months since, we've seen Shaheen maintain a steady lead now in two of the more reputable polls following the race. Good news for us.
"First and foremost, today we remember the fallen heroes of our armed services and their families. We pray for the men and women serving our country and we honor the veterans who have sacrificed so much for all of us.
"Today, we are five years into a war we were told would last a matter of weeks, five years into a war that has taken almost 4,000 American lives and is costing us $12 billion a month, five years into a war that has diverted our military focus from pursuing terrorist threats around the world. This morning, President Bush asserted once again that the war in Iraq has made America safer, while our intelligence agencies tell us that exactly the opposite is true – we are more vulnerable to terrorist threats now than we have been at any time since 2001.
So with eight months to go, I figure it’s time for an updated look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where there is a serious challenger to the incumbent (or at least the incumbent’s party, in cases of retirement), where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
Follow me below the fold for all the races. Note: Some of this may seem repetitive, with information you already know. That’s because I originally wrote this for the Bruin Democrats, many of whom don’t follow the national races like we do. Consider this a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike.
