Here are some thoughts on last night's special elections.

OH-05 yielded a disappointing result, certainly. I didn't think we'd win the district, but I thought we had a decent shot at it, and I certainly expected a narrower margin than 14 points (almost exactly the same result as in 2006). Evidence from the last week certainly seemed to indicate that the race would be significantly closer than it was.

That said, the NRCC outspent us 2-1 to hold Robin Weirauch to the same margin she received in 2006, which was a historically bad year for Republicans. She received that in a year when Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown were winning landslide victories across the state. Last year was the worst year for Republicans in OH-05 since 1982, and they had to spend $500,000 just to tread water there.

Let's not forget: $500,000 is a luxury they can't afford. As of last filing the NRCC had $2.6 million in the bank, $3.6 million in debt. They just spent nearly 20% of what cash they had to hold us to a historically great performance in a deeply red district.

They won't have the luxury of outspending us 2-1 next year; given the money advantage we currently enjoy, it seems more than likely we'll be able to outspend them across the board.

The Republicans are still trying to pretend that 2006 was an aberration. Yet they have to go all-out, it seems, to hold the ground they already have.

Yes, I was hoping for a better performance in this district. Yes, I'm disappointed.

But if the Republicans have to outspend us 2-1 to prevent us from gaining ground on a historically great year, I am still very optimistic about 2008.

If they have to waste such large sums of money to protect OH-05, I can't even imagine what they'll have to do in more naturally competitive districts like NM-01 or IL-10.

It's odd that while this district received quite a bit of national attention, no party leaders, Democratic or Republican, went into OH-05. Boehner's absence from the district (and presence in VA-01) has been well publicized. We did have some big names campaign there, like Strickland and Brown, but no national party leaders.

Speaking of VA-01, I'm not at all surprised that Wittman won easily, although I am surprised that Phil Forgit appears to have slightly underperformed Kerry in the district. The NRCC had to spend here, too, just to be safe, and that is some consolation.

Race tracker wiki: OH-05 VA-01

I can scarcely believe this, fromMatt Stoller:

The first question Democrats should be asking themselves is why Robin Weirauch didn't mention Iraq in her ads, and the second question is whether not mentioning the issue that ranks number one on the list of voter concerns had anything to do with Weirauch's unremarkable loss in OH-05 tonight.  It might also be worth noting that Weirauch didn't mention she was a Democrat in her ads

.

WTF?!  

Cross-posted at OpenLeft - I'm doing a lot of speculating in this diary based on incomplete evidence, but considering that DC insiders want to take Iraq off the table, chime in.  It's not like they have all the answers.

The race is done by a with a roughly 57-43 margin.  After going over the paid media messaging by the two candidates, I have a few thoughts on what happened here.  The first question Democrats should be asking themselves is why Robin Weirauch didn't mention Iraq in her ads, and the second question is whether not mentioning the issue that ranks number one on the list of voter concerns had anything to do with Weirauch's unremarkable loss in OH-05 tonight.  It might also be worth noting that Weirauch didn't mention she was a Democrat in her ads.

Not looking good thus far...

Update: Given this is a open seat in a solidly red district, the district seems to be performing as it should --except that -- at 43.2% reporting -- a six percent improvement over Democratic performance in 2004, not to mention that Republicans dumped money they didn't have to pull this one out of the fire -- at least 2-1 (we'll know more in a couple of days). They won't have that luxury in many districts in 2008.

Update II: Okay, I'm done here. My kids are begging for a little attention before they go down for the night. Republicans beat us in the expectations game, got enough of their people out, and basically kept things even from 2006. They spent a shitload of money for an "expectations" game victory in what might have otherwise been a routine and uneventful hold. So well played to them.

But the bottom line is that they held an R+10 seat. Funny that this is the sort of thing they're left "celebrating" these days.

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

More room to chat since the vote results are still but a trickle.

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

So now it's off to count the votes. The results will be updated here. At least in theory, if we don't crash the Secretary of State website with obsessive refreshing. But SoS offices are getting better at keeping their sites going during election nights. So keep your fingers crossed.

Meanwhile, Republicans will hold their seat in VA-01 with a seemingly comfortable margin.

-----

And here are some 2006 baselines courtesy of James L at Swing State Project. You can see the county vote results here.

Race tracker wiki: OH-05 VA-01

CQ:

Scenario 1: Latta wins narrowly.

The Democrats would spin a narrow loss in Ohio as something of a victory, in light of the normally strong Republican performance in northwestern Ohio, and brandish an unexpectedly close result as further evidence that voters want change.

Democrats would adopt the same arguments that Republicans employed after an Oct. 16 special election in Massachusetts’ 5th District, where Democrat Niki Tsongas defeated Republican James Ogonowski by a relatively narrow 5 percentage-point margin in a constituency that had long elected Democrat Martin T. Meehan by wide margins. An NRCC post-election release was entitled “The Democratic Wave Breaks” and described Tsongas as “underperforming,” adding that the close race proved “a major shift in the national political environment.” Look for the DCCC to also describe a narrow Latta win as subpar.

The Republicans would say that a win is a win, and that Latta’s victory, however narrow, amounted to a Republican “hold” in a state where the political environment has been poisonous for Republicans, even 13 months after the Democratic landslide victories of Ted Strickland for governor and Sherrod Brown for senator.

Scenario 2: Weirauch wins narrowly.

This shocking result would reverberate in national political circles and deliver a big psychological blow to House Republicans about halfway into the 2008 election cycle, and a little more than a year after they lost 30 seats and the House majority to the Democrats.

Democrats would hail the result as repudiation of the Bush administration and further testimony of the strength that the Democratic Party showed in the 2006 elections, especially in districts that normally vote Republican.

Republicans would portray a Weirauch victory as an aberration and assert that she is unlikely to be re-elected in November 2008, when she would have to share a ballot with a Democratic presidential nominee who is more likely than not to lose the 5th District.

Republicans might also attribute a Latta loss to the fractious Republican primary election on Nov. 6 — especially if there is evidence of a depressed Republican turnout Tuesday in areas sympathetic to state Sen. Steve Buehrer, Latta’s chief primary opponent — and also to the Club for Growth, the conservative political organization that backed Buehrer and aired television ads critical of Latta’s record on tax issues during the primary campaign.

Scenario 3: Latta wins handily.

Just a few weeks ago, this appeared to be the likeliest of the three scenarios, given the strong Republican lean of the Ohio’s 5th District. Now a big Latta win surely is the least likely possibility, given how Republican officials have felt compelled to go into overdrive to criticize Weirauch’s views in the waning weeks of the campaign and to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on anti-Weirauch television advertisements. Latta and the NRCC — which has been pinched for cash since the GOP lost its House majority — would almost surely be ignoring Weirauch if Latta were safely ahead.

But should Latta somehow win decisively — say by 10 percentage points or more — the Republicans would claim a big victory in a state where Democrats made ample gains in 2006, and also argue that the results were a setback to a new House Democratic leadership that was supportive of Weirauch’s candidacy.

The Democrats would say that outcome is typical of a district that backed Bush with 61 percent of the vote in 2004, and that they made the Republicans expend several hundred thousand dollars that otherwise could have gone to bids to recapture some of the seats that they lost to the Democrats in 2006.

We already won, given the broke NRCC was forced to spend a fifth of their cash on hand on an R+10 district, so worst case scenario for us -- Latta wins by more than 10 points -- means only that the district stayed true to its partisan rating yet cost the NRCC nearly half a million in precious funds. Not a bad outcome. Anything closer than that, and we prove that Republicans face a hostile electorate and won't be able to fully lean on their district's partisan ratings.

If the second scenario happens, expect a flood of retirements as Republicans everywhere pass up a tough reelection battle in a toxic environment for Republicans. \

Update: This is hilarious!

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

[Promoted by DHinMI]

Disclosure: I am volunteering out of the Robin Weirauch for Congress campaign headquarters in Bowling Green.

Polls are open here until 7:30pm, so there's three hours till polls close. The verdict so far? Because of the weather we believe turnout is low. But nobody knows if that is good or bad. It's doubly important that if you know anybody living in the district, you call them now and ask them to go vote for Robin. If you're on Facebook, you can use this event to invite your friends and family to go vote. But a personal phone call is probably best.

The weather is pretty uniformly bad. It's been raining or misting or about to rain all day. At least it isn't icy out. Supposed to be in the upper 30s for the rest of the day.

Ohio Daily Blog and Buckeye State Blog have been offering up great coverage all day, be sure to go read their posts.

For results tonight, check out the SOS website.

Holy smokes.

From the Politico:

President Bush won 61 percent of the vote in the district in 2004. But a poll conducted for Latta’s campaign last week showed him trailing Weirauch by four points, according to a GOP operative.

And the money streaming into the Bowling Green-based district from both sides confirms the very real concerns that Republicans have about the race. The National Republican Congressional Committee has poured in more than $428,000 — nearly one-fifth of the committee’s entire campaign account — for advertising, direct mail and phone banks within the last week.

As you know, the DCCC has countered with $250,000 in the district as well, and now we know why.

Yes, it's a very Republican district. Yes, the DCCC's own internals don't show numbers quite this good. Yes, the only important poll happens tonight in the actual election (this poll was commissioned last week).

Still, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about this race. Weirauch has run unashamedly as an economic populist and opponent of free trade, and not only has she withstood the GOP's attacks on her "extreme liberalism", she has gained real traction in a district where Democrats simply are not supposed to compete.

And since the GOP has made it clear that they intend to run, both here and nationally, by using immigration and brown people as a scarecrow, a victory here would throw their entire strategy for 2008 into serious doubt (not to mention, it would be a victory for those of us who believe the GOP's demonizing of immigrants is hateful).

In a sense, we have already succeeded in this district by getting the NRCC, already in serious financial trouble, to spend $430,000 on what should have been a gimme. And by waging a genuinely competitive race in this district, we've set ourselves up for a nice post-election narrative even if we lose: if Republicans are having trouble holding on to districts like this one, what will they do with the more balanced districts next fall? What effect will this have on potential recruits and donors who see strongly Republican districts nearly falling...or actually falling? Will they start to think their time and money might be best served elsewhere?

I don't want to get too carried away. I still wouldn't bank on us taking this election.

But so far, everything which we needed to go right, in order to win this district, has gone right.

Todd Hoffman has an excellent diary on GOTV for this election.

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

disclosure: i am volunteering with the campaign HQ and currently traveling with Robin Weirauch

5.20 office already humming, war room listening to britney spears. Canvass team is getting caffeinated.

6.20 heading out to first location. Spilled coffee all over myself in the car. Really foggy, but no rain yet.

We are approaching the goal line in OH-5, and we need everyone's help to put Robin Weirauch over the top. This will be a close race so every voter contact we make now until the polls close is critical.

If everyone here in the Daily Kos community commits to making 25 calls, we can reach out to thousands of voters across the district. In a race that could be won by 100 votes, will you be the one that puts Robin over the top?

You have the power to make a direct impact on this race. Are you up for the challenge?

Volunteer today for Robin’s Virtual Phonebank. It is easy to do and you can call from virtually anywhere.  Contact Jason at  phonebank4robin@gmail.com to sign up for Robin’s Virtual Phonebank.

Be part of a great Democratic Victory. Volunteer today!

Bob Latta cartoon after the fold.

Disclosure: I am volunteering out of the Robin Weirauch for Congress campaign headquarters in Bowling Green.

Today is the last day before Election Day. The crush of volunteers from the weekend is over, so the office is calmer. It’s the calm before the storm, the forecast for tomorrow is more bad weather. We’re still seeing volunteers streaming in to talk to voters. Everyone is talking about how this is going to be a close one, so nobody wants to leave that last door un-knocked, that last number un-called.

What we need now, is you.

Tomorrow is special-election day in Ohio's 5th district, and while the odds certainly favor the Republicans, they sure aren't looking like a party that's passionate about winning.

There's widespread discontent with the lackluster campaign of the GOP's chosen, Bob Latta. From subscription-only Roll Call (via James L. at Swing State Project), we get this:

The [GOP] Members are running around saying, 'What just happened?'" said a Washington Republican with knowledge of the district. "To put it bluntly, they're pissed off. People are angry that Bob Latta hasn't devoted himself better on the campaign trial to connect with northwest Ohio voters and given an opportunity to an opponent who was so far off the radar and actually made it a race." [...]

"It's like the Latta campaign is trying to write a handbook on how to lose a Congressional campaign in 60 days or less," said the Republican.

Indeed.

Perhaps that's why John Boehner, House Minority Leader and proud representative of the neighboring 8th district, is bravely staying away from this race. Boehner, the House's most powerful Republican, has eschewed campaigning here, electing to spend his time campaigning in a different special election, in Virginia's 1st District.

Never mind, of course, that his district is right next door; never mind that Democrats have gone all-in on this district and that there's a legitimate risk that the GOP may lose this seat. Boehner is too busy, it seems, hanging in Virginia (although Democratic counterparts Governor Ted Strickland and Senator Sherrod Brown are only too happy to help out Robin Weirauch).

Well, if Boehner won't help Latta out, perhaps Fred Thompson will? Unfortunately, Thompson shows about the same energy and vigor for campaigning in this web ad as he does in his own campaign (which is to say, none).

The Republicans have done what they can to try and raise money on the Intertubes, but unfortunately, they appear to be having some troubles guiding people to Slatecard, the GOP's pathetic counter to ActBlue. Seems, also, that there's more than a bit of Latta apathy online as well as offline. At last report, Latta had pulled in the lofty total of $1,908 on Slatecard, from all of 21 donors.

Compare that with the $92,616 Weirauch has raised on ActBlue (including $15,604 from Blue Majority; congratulations to you all), and we get a decent idea of Latta's online support vis-a-vis Weirauch's.  

But perhaps of greatest concern for the Republicans facing tomorrow's election is the possibility that turnout may be unusually low. The Republican primary in this district was exceptionally ugly, and Latta only won with 44%, to 40% for his opponent Steve Buehrer. Latta has apparently had a difficult time smoothing over his differences with Buehrer's old supporters, as the Lima News reports:

Following a negative, divisive and close primary in which the Ohio Elections Commission reprimanded Latta and fellow candidate Ohio Sen. Steve Buehrer for lying about each other, Buehrer supporters haven’t gotten behind Latta.

"You had four in 10 Republican voters supporting Buehrer. If they are disgusted by the negativity of that campaign or the outcome, and they stay home, it could really change the outcome of the election," Miller said.

Buckeye State Blog has a piece on the GOP's turnout concerns, which surely will not be alleviated by the weather (it's expected to rain, with temperatures in the 30s).

In the face of the discontent with the Republican candidate in the district, the Republicans, naturally, are doing the only thing they know how to do; they're spending boatloads of money (which, for once, they can't afford to spend), on ads designed to make people afraid of the monsters under the bed (in this case, Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, brown people, and Daily Kos. Wow, didn't see that coming).

This is going to be a very difficult race to win. Simply put, we just don't win districts this red very often. We currently have elected Democrats in exactly six seats with a higher Cook PVI. Latta has outraised Weirauch through the race (although she's done very well for a Democrat in this district), and the Republicans have thrown vats of money into this district: they're in for nearly $430,000, so despite the fact that they're having trouble drumming up excitement for their candidate, they're pulling out the stops to keep this district.

But, at the very least, we have a fighting chance in this district, and we have a candidate we can truly be proud of.

The GOP sees a chance they might lose a safe Republican district, and they've got a candidate who leaves them shaking their heads.

Update: Check out this diary from lpackard for reports from the campaign and information on phonebanking for Robin Weirauch.

On the web:
Robin Weirauch for Congress
Blue Majority ActBlue Page

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

Disclosure: I am volunteering out of the Robin Weirauch for Congress campaign headquarters in Bowling Green.

The Ohio special election is in just 2 days now!

The National Weather Service has issued an ice storm warning for the 5th congressional district area, the temperature is bitter cold and the winds are bone-chilling. The weather is terrible outside, but people continue to stream in for door-knocking to help elect Robin Wierauch.

If you live in OH-05, hopefully you’ve gotten a call from the campaign at some point. If you were home last night, that call may have come from Robin Weirauch herself. Candidate Robin was sitting right behind me, making voter calls alongside several volunteers.

[Promoted by DHinMI]

Disclosure: I am volunteering out of the Robin Weirauch for Congress campaign headquarters in Bowling Green.

Today will be more phone-banking and door-knocking for the Weirauch campaign, to reach every possible supporter in the district and remind them of the special election on Tuesday. The office was packed this morning with supporters for our canvass.

Okay, check this map out. The highlighted green is the fifth district, which we've been following all week. Look right below it, to the left. That's Ohio's 8th congressional district, which also happens to be the home of one John Boehner -- the House minority leader.

So his neighboring district is in serious distress. The broke NRCC has already dropped $410,000 into the state, or about 15% of their remaining cash-on-hand, and they've got about their entire Ohio and NRCC operations in the district trying to stave off unfathomable defeat in an R+10 district -- one that Bush won 61-39 in 2004.

But one Republican is steering clear -- the aforementioned Boehner.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) has no plans to campaign in his home state for GOP state Rep. Bob Latta, who is facing a competitive fight to hold a solidly-Republican seat in a special election next Tuesday.

Latta spokesman Matt Parker confirmed that Boehner is not scheduled to campaign in the district before the election. Boehner has not campaigned with Latta since he won the party's nomination on November 6.

“Bob Latta’s campaigning on his own merits. He’s campaigning his own way because he wants to go to Washington to do his own thing,” said Parker. “He has his own agenda. He doesn’t have to have John Boehner by his side.”

Boehner is, however, campaigning at a rally with the Republican nominee in a Virginia special election this weekend, aiding state Del. Rob Wittman in a less-competitive race on the same date.

In addition, Boehner also offered Wittman a rare public assurance earlier this week that he will work to secure the candidate a spot on the House Armed Services Committee.

Republicans had a nasty primary, and this may be a result of some of lingering hard feelings. It truly is odd to see Boehner go all out for the VA-01 race, while essentially leaving the desperately endangered Latta to the wolves.

At a time when the GOP faces its most hostile political environment in decades, internal divisions threaten to compound their pain.

On the web:
Robin Weirauch for Congress
Blue Majority ActBlue Page
Virtual phone banking help needed

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

The NRCC has a new web video about how terrifying Robin Weirauch is, and to make the point, they ominously detail all the ways she is the "darling of left-wing liberal extremists nationwide." And taking up the Republican establishment's obsession with Daily Kos where the NRSC left off, what should be on the screen under the words "darling of left-wing liberal extremists" but a Daily Kos entry on the race.

Before you decide to watch this video, I should warn you, it's pretty scary: Nancy Pelosi! Daily Kos! Brown people crossing a river! EMILY's List! Hillary Clinton!

Hey, at least it doesn't talk about where Markos goes on vacation. I don't know if I'd be able to sleep for weeks if they scared me that bad.

On the web:
Robin Weirauch for Congress
Blue Majority ActBlue Page
Virtual phone banking help needed

And lpackard lets us know that:

Also if you want to give money, it’s not too late. Yes the deadlines have passed for media buys, but the campaign is watching the ActBlue totals and making decisions every hour on if they can afford more cellphones, gas cards, etc. for GOTV. So every penny counts and is being counted.

Update by kos: On Wednesday, James L who is following spending on the race over at the Swing State Project wrote:

Even more expenditures from the NRCC -- $2700 for phone banks, $6K for a new poll, and $1400 to produce a new ad.  ($1400?  What, did they film that with a camcorder in Tom Cole's basement?)

Well, I think we've just seen the "ad" that the NRCC wasted $1,400 producing. Hilarious.

Race tracker wiki: OH-05

I'm the New Media Director for Barack Obama's campaign.

One great consequence of having Barack Obama as our Democratic nominee will be the continued growth of a grassroots movement that is making an impact in all 50 states on races up and down the ballot.

Every day the energy is growing, and it's an amazing sight to see as folks getting involved in politics for the first time work together with others (like me) who got involved for the first time last cycle.

Add to that mix the seasoned activists who've been involved for decades and those who were involved decades ago but had given up on the political process (one small donor recently wrote that she and her husband, both seniors, were involved 40 years ago and now feel "politically resurrected by Barack's candidacy"), and you've got a diverse movement ready for change.

Building on yesterday's mobilization in OH-05, today's target is next week's special election in VA-01. Message from Barack after the jump.