I've been peeking over at Intrade and, as of 1:49 a.m., the Democrats are favoried in both races.

In New Jersey, Jon Corzine is trading at a bid of 89.0 while Forrester is stuck at 7.1. In Virginia, Tim Kaine leads with a bid of 70.5 with Kilgore stuck at 20.5.

I don't know the accuracy of such sites, but I would think people who are willing to put money on elections have an idea of what's going on. We'll see.

Intrade shares of Alito are trading at 46.0 (bid/ask spread is 46/56).  Luttig is trading at 20, a distant second.

Intrade's markets have an impressive record of predicing these things, but hasn't hit on judges yet (just a disclaimer).

More on the flip.

UPDATE: Here's the link. UPDATE: It was right.

It's silly to look to the futures market for guidance, I'll admit right off the bat.  Especially in the Leak investigation.  The only people who truly know what's going on -- the lawyers in the Special Prosecutor's office -- likely don't have the time to make trades on Intrade.  There's no evidence that the traders know any more than any other junkie refreshing Daily Kos, Drudge Report, HuffPost, Washington Note, etc., every twenty minutes.  They're probably reading the same tea leaves.  Still, even an observer as savvy as Joh Marshall noted the recent collapse of Miers futures, falling from $60.00 to $35.00 in one day.  Were insiders doing their best Dr. Frist impersonation and cashing in?  It may be nothing, but then again, who knows?  

Via Billmon and Gilliard, John Dean forecasts rain on the Fitzmas Parade:

It is difficult to envision Patrick Fitzgerald prosecuting anyone, particularly Vice President Dick Cheney, who believed they were acting for reasons of national security. While hindsight may find their judgment was wrong, and there is no question their tactics were very heavy-handed and dangerous, I am not certain that they were acting from other than what they believed to be reasons of national security. They were selling a war they felt needed to be undertaken.

In short, I cannot imagine any of them being indicted, unless they were acting for reasons other than national security. Because national security is such a gray area of the law, come next week, I can see this entire investigation coming to a remarkable anti-climax, as Fitzgerald closes down his Washington office and returns to Chicago.

Well, I think Billmon and Steve are more likely correct than Dean. Target letters and and the rest of it points to something happening. Moreover, the idea of the leaking of a CIA operative as being in the furtherance of national security is absurd it seems to me. I think the case is about national security. That's what makes it serious. But not the furtherance of it, the undermining of it for political purposes. So I don't find Dean convincing on this.

But Dean is a very smart man. So an addition of caution in your Fitzmas plans seems in order.

Mary Matalin, in Los Angels Times story "Bush Critic Became Target of Libby, Former Aides Say" trying to defend Scooter Libby, has totally destroyed creditibility of Scooter and that of herself. Ms. Matalin statements indicate that either Scooter was completely involved and knowledgeable of all details involving White House Iraq Group(WHIG) (and of attacking Ambassador Wilson) because of "Scooter is the most methodical, detail-oriented and comprehensive worker", or Scooter is totally incompetent an lead the White House Iraq Group down the path using bogus intelligence. Scooter is both totally knowledgeable and capable, or totally incompetent.

The best indicator of who winning the election is Las Vegas odds.  Beleive me, these gamblers are betting a lot on this election, and they know all the angles.

This site has aa real-time futures market where you can bet on who's going to win.  You must click on "US presidental market" to see the current odds.

The way it woks is that you can buy futures contracts for between  $1 and $100.  In a nutshell if you're candidte's price is $1 he's lost, and if he's selling for $100 he's the winner.

Current Odds  (At 2:30 Pacific):

KERRY 67
BUSH  33

So, Kerry is exactly a 2-1 favorite!!!   Twice as likely to win as Bush!!!!

You can check the current odds at the site they can change by the minute.

Trust me, gamblers know this stuff!!

I like the meme/theme/steam that's moving in the press...

From Bloomberg:

Is this a Bush Crash?

Amazing to believe, but a sharp-eyed reader has found that the Policy Analysis Market -- that Pentagon-funded and Pointexder-led futures market -- will reopen in March.

You remember this particular DARPA project:

The program is called the Policy Analysis Market. DARPA said it was part of a research effort "to investigate the broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks."  

Traders would have bought and sold futures contracts -- just like energy traders do now in betting on the future price of oil. But the contracts in this case would have been based on what might happen in the Middle East in terms of economics, civil and military affairs or specific events, such as terrorist attacks.  

Holders of a futures contract that came true would have collected the proceeds of traders who put money into the market but predicted wrong.  

A graphic on the market's Web page Monday showed hypothetical futures contracts in which investors could trade on the likelihood that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat would be assassinated or Jordanian King Abdullah II would be overthrown. Although the website described the Policy Analysis Market as a Middle East market, the graphic also included the possibility of a North Korea missile attack.

The announcement at the Policy Analysis Market website now brags that it will reopen "free of government involvement."

The idea is still grotesque, and the site would still allow terrorists to make money off their own attacks. Bet on an attack, conduct the attack, cash the check. Beyond ridiculous.

Who is behind the new site? The domain is registered to Net Exchange, which originally developed the market with Pentagon funding. So who is funding the market now?

I'm not a journalist. But someone should find out.