Via Via Rasmussen

Obama 49, McCain 36
Clinton 43, McCain 41

 

Ok, not a sure fire guarantee. But if you bet on politics, the Mittster is seriously undervalued and I believe he has the best chance of being the nominee. Let me explain why.

I hesistate to be too strident here. I was angry about Move-On's newspaper ad on Monday which I thought was in poor taste and was politically counterproductive. But frankly, this piece of evidence Matt Yglesias has turned up about Petraeus's testimony and the way in which he subtly - but significantly - altered maps to make an argument reflects very badly on the General's credibility and needs to highlighted.

Arguably, this is the most important data we have available in terms of the current strategy - more important than testimony, surveys of US public opinion, competing body counts, etc - and it seems to have been ignored by the major US bloggers.

Anyway, an organization has just released a large poll for the BBC, ABC News, and NHK (a German news company, I think) about Iraqi public opinion. The same organization did a similar study in March on the fourth anniversary of the war.

I don't want to make this article too long, but something very suspicious seems to be up. About 2 hours ago, an article was up on the LATimes' website basically contesting the US military's claims that civilian casualties in Iraq are down. Kossack Cheez Whiz originally linked to the story in a diary about 15 before mine. It is now nowhere to be found on the website.

I've never done a "breaking" diary before, but I have a feeling this could be quite important. The diary will be short. Anyway, remember the bombing of the Samarra mosque in February of 2006 that set off massive waves of sectarian violence in Iraq? Well, its been bombed again, this time destroying two of its minarets.

The problem is not immigration - immigration is a sympton. This is why I find the nature of this debate completely dysfunctional, because it isn't talking about the issue correctly and broadly enough.

I don't know how many of you follow Rasmussen, but Bush's ratings are usually higher in this poll than elsewhere for a couple reasons: because the raw numbers are rigidly adjusted to pre-determined partisan breakdown (good for predicting elections, not so good for predicting the national mood) and because of the way Rasmussen asks his "approve/disapprove" question (allowing for more modulated response).

I see a lot of speculation in this country - on blogs, in the newspapers, in the "MSM" - about what is going on in Iraq, about "moderates" and "extremists," pro-Iranians, civil wars, the "Sunni-Shi'ite divide" and most of it, frankly, is ignorant. At best, following simply English language news sources will give you an incomplete and inaccurate picture of what is currently going on in Iraq and the nature and motivations of the actors involved, as well as an understanding of the true levels of support various ideas and individuals have.

I haven't see this diaried elsewhere. But an article from the San Jose Mercury describes how members of Al-Sadr's political grouping commandered Iraqi state TV on Saturday night, calling explicitly for attacks on Sunnis. My sense is is that the current "government" in Iraq does not have long left.

Very quick. NBC news just called the House for the Dems with a projected majority of 231 to 204!

Discuss

Haven't seen most of these polls diaried yet. And - if accurate - they are very, very good for the Dems. Here's the Link

With all the hand-wringing amongst some folks here, Gallup has now released their latest poll - and it will appear in tomorrow's USA Today, based on a national survey of voters from Thursday to Sunday. Basically, what the poll shows is that the Democrats maintain a sizable lead, but the GOP has narrowed it to 7 points amongst LIKELY voters.

This is front page of tomorrow's Guardian. And frankly, I'm a bit stunned at how deep hostility to Bush is. Basically, the results are of the British pollster ICM and its survey of public opinion of world events, especially relating to the United States in only 4 countries deemed to have particularly friendly relations to the United States - Mexico, Canada, Israel, Briatin. Indeed, outside of Australia, that is probably right. And the results were perhaps closer to what one might imagine getting in countries like Turkey, Greece, or Argentina (if not, say, Egypt or Jordan) with a much longer and more noted history of hostility to the United States.

Short and sweet. I've for a short while now been thinking this seat could be the surprise Democratic pick-up of the cycle.

Short and sweet. Didn't see this latest compendium of LATimes/Bloomberg polls diaried, so I thought I should throw these up. Generally good, putting the Dems just on the doorstep of a majority. (Taking into account recent polling in PA, MT, and RI suggesting Democratic pick ups)

Great poll news for the Dems and their quest for a majority. Hodes's challenge was not seen as key to the Dems retaking Congress. Its been "in play," but seen to lean GOP still.

I am interested in what the airwave wars are like in your neck of the woods. Or perhaps this diary could serve as a place where we could get an idea what things are like elsewhere.