Before the Iowa caucus I cited the potential of a reverse Wilder effect there.  For those who don't know, back in 1989 Doug Wilder, a black candidate for Virginia governor was leading by 9 points in the polls, but ended up winning by only 0.5%.  Prior to him in 1982 Tom Bradley, the popular black Los Angeles Mayor (a city that was still majority white at the time, by the way), was leading polls in the California governors race en route to a narrow defeat.  In both instances, a sizable number people were telling the pollsters one thing over the phone, and doing another in the voting booth.  

Such is the nature of some people in a country that has gone far in making blatantly racist statements unacceptable (well...sort of), but still has very far to go on dealing with prejudice sentiments.

My belief last week was that there was a real potential for a REVERSE Wilder effect in the Iowa caucus.  And tonights results provide validation.

Iowa and New Hampshire always going first is a problem.  But a national primary is far from the solution. Indeed the larger concerns of all voters should be primary front-loading.  A candidate who doesn't win one of the first four primaries that all occur in the first 4 weeks of the campaign will have absolutely no shot because a ridiculous percentage of delegates and big states all vote on February 5.  This situation is made worse with a single primary voting day.

A national primary provides absolutely NO CHANCE for any candidate that hasn't raised $100 million and hasn't already been anointed by the media as a front runner.  And putting the big states up front would create the same problem.  Winning in a state with expensive media markets like California or New York would require raising similar high sums of money.  The more money required to raise, the more difficult it becomes for $50 donations - average people - to have an impact.

Simply, it's good for the process to have a limited number of small to medium sized states vote first.  But more states and big states need to weigh in early too.  The solution is a longer primary process primarily from February-May.

Here's what a good calendar would look like:

Sometime ago, likely in 2005 or 2006, Barack appeared on the Oprah Winfrey Show.  My sister TiVoed it and I went to her house to watch it.  When he walked on the stage I thought to myself: this man has the stature that the American people are looking for in a president.  He exuded positive energy.  He was confident yet approachable.  He was calm despite carrying a heavy weight of history and sudden stardom.  That's a man I'd like to see in the White House during tough times, I thought.

Then a discussion transpired that completely changed the way I would see Barack Obama.  I can't remember the conversation or question that led to the comment, but I would forever remember the statement itself.  When discussing how he sees politics/governing, Barack said that almost always neither side is right and the solution is somewhere in the middle.  

The shine had diminished, and I began seeing him as I should all political leaders with a critical eye.

Viewing Barack's policies and actions over the past year through the guise of that statement is why I, a 25-year old black man, have struggled to pitch my tent in the Obama camp, unlike many of my peers.

Don't believe the media hype or even Kos.  The reality is it is still February of 2007 and Iowa is 11 months away.

You see the amazing thing that is continuously being neglected in these discussions about the 2008 presidential campaign is the potential impact of the netroots.  It's being ignored for good reason, there is no real netroots darling in the race right now.  The ability of the netroots as displayed in the Clark and Dean '04 campaigns, coupled with the overestimation of the amount of money it will take to win this thing is why I believe Gore could probably wait until July/August and Clark could probably wait until late April/early May.

The media will dismiss anyone who fails to raise $100 million by January but the truth (as anyone who has actually run a political campaign will tell you) is that it doesn't take anywhere near that much money to win this thing.  The small states can be won by a talented group of organizers, and a strong message and a few million dollars, and victories in the small states will translate into votes in the large states on Feb. 5.

No one wants to see Barack Obama run a great campaign more than me.  Yet, I can't stop being disappointed by him.  I'm really hoping he has more to offer in this campaign, which is set to officially begin in a few hours, than he has so far, because we need more.

The man mystifies people, and I understand why.  He has incredible demeanor, he's good looking and he delivered an unforgettable speech.  But for me - a young person with lots of student loan debt, living paycheck to paycheck, watching friends go to war, balancing the challenges of a disabled parent, every time I hear him speak, I find myself thinking, "Where's the beef?"

This is the best oratator in the party and the most charismatic politician since definitely Clinton possibly the Kennedys and THAT was his first major speech as a top-tier presidential contender?  How disappointing.

Whoever the heck is in Obama's ear get the heck out of it, because if this is what the Obama for President campaign is going to be about, I and a lot of other voters are going to start listening a lot more about the "Two Americas" and the "New Mexico Comeback."  

That speech was a bomb - not just for Obama, but for any candidate.  

Attorneys may be needed throughout the Commonwealth of Virginia, especially Northern Virginia, ANY Attorney, law student, paralegal, etc., regardless of bar status, should send an e-mail that includes your name, phone number and e-mail address to: ritacaguilar@yahoo.com. I have no further details. THANK YOU!

We all know that with Tester winning in Montana (whoohoo) it all comes down to how the votes are counted in Virginia.  

DON'T LET THOSE BASTARDS STEAL THIS THING FROM US AGAIN! Please recommend.

Governor: PHIL ANGELIDAS
US Senator: COLLEN FERNALD
Lt. Governor: JOHN GARAMENDI
Secretary of State: DEBRA BOWEN
Controller: JOE DUNN
Treasurer: BILL LOCKYER
Attorney General: JERRY BROWN
Insurance Commissioner: JOHN KRAFT
Board of Equalization (4th District): JUDY CHU
Superintendent of Public Instruction: NO VOTE

Prop 81: NO
Prop 82: NO

House races I can't vote in:

CA-36: MARCY WINOGRAD
CA-11: JERRY MCNEARNEY

Explanations....

A fool for actually believing in Robert Byrd and the rest of his mostly white, mostly male friends in the United States Senate and the media.  

A fool to have relied on them to reject a man not only far outside of the judicial mainstream, but a racist who is blatantly hostile to civil rights and so proudly proclaims membership in a racist organization.

A fool to have actually believed that African-Americans had an advocate in this fight, the Senate Democrats.  (I must have forgotten about the 2000 Electoral College.)

The clock has already been turned back.

It must have been.

This can't be 21st century America.

I must be living in 1955.

Everyone, from me and other members of the Kos community to Senators Leahy and Reid, must be blamed for reversing centuries of work toward justice when Samuel Alito is sworn in as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court.  By allowing this nomination to go through we are spitting on the millions of courageous individuals who without reservation stood up for racial and economic equality while facing threats far greater than losing the next election, death threats directed not just to themselves, but to their spouses and to their children...their children.  We all, each and everyone one of us, soil the graves of those who made the ultimate sacrifice in pursuit of the unpopular, whose dying wish was simply for good people to continue the fight, to continue to do what is right.

The weekly South Los Angeles newspaper The Wave, exposes the money trail:

The sad thing is that Moore, who is the former Chairwoman of the California Legislative Black Caucus isn't even the biggest name on the list of sell-outs...

I'm not a lawyer, and I couldn't name more than a dozen Circuit Court judges if my life depended on it, so I'd like to call on the extensive legal knowledge in this community to help identify the next Thurgood Marshall, Brennan, Douglas...our liberal versions of Alito.

Included should be federal and state jurists, politicians, and academics.  ABILITY TO GET CONFIRMED SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR.

Seems to me any list has to include:
-Stephen Reinhardt (9th Circuit Court of Appeals)...Pledge of Allegiance case among others
-Henry Edwards (Past Chief Judge, D.C. Circuit)
-Ralph Neas (President, People for the American Way)

[More below]

You have had 4 years of bi-partisan Congressional and widespread public support to devote significant resources toward developing evacuation and emergency response plans for every potential terrorist target in this country.  The fact that such plans weren't available for what FEMA labeled the #3 greatest potential catastrophe in the country, is a sign of gross incompetence.  I shudder to think what I, a citizen of Los Angeles, would be subjected to if a nuclear suitcase bomb ever went off in this huge city.  

Sir, the breaches in the canals very well could have been caused by al-Qaeda, not Katrina, you clearly did not consider that.  It is clear from the anemic FEMA response and your actions in the run up to and dayS AFTER Katrina that you and your administration did not appreciate the gravity of this approaching and foreseeable tragedy, and that is a failure of criminal proportions.  American citizens are dying and being subjected to sub-human conditions for DAYS because of your gross negligence and inertness.  

-A real American president would have asked every citizen in the surrounding areas to open their community's VFW halls, church centers, labor halls, community centers and high school gymnasiums and to fill these locations with warm cooked food, water, mattress, blankets and clothing, and to embrace these souls as though they are part of their immediate family and remember they're all members of the American family.

-A real American president would have asked every ambulance technician, nurse, doctor, medical student, and every retired medical practitioner in regions not affected to request a week's vacation time and to go to their closest Red Cross station to register for citizen service to begin like yesterday.

-A real American president would have asked the American people for the next few weeks to put the SUV away and use public transportation, carpools, fuel efficient vehicles and to walk when they can.

QUESTION: What did he know, and when did he know it?

Via ThinkProgess, in early 2001 this article appeared in the Houston Chronicle:

Before the pictures of the president leading an emergency White House task force hit the wire and before CNN plays footage of him in Air Force One viewing the destruction (he's waiting until Friday to go to New Orleans by the way), the questions must be asked:

Why didn't George do more when he clearly could have and should have?

Why was he literally eating cake in Arizona while people in New Orleans were sitting on their rooftops waiting for rescue helicopters?

Why did he chose to attend TWO staged Medicare events while citizens in Mississippi were searching through their communities for remaining signs of life?

Why was he on vacation while a category four hurricane was about to hit the worst possible place it could?

If we overwhelm the papers, airwaves and congressional offices with our comments, we'll develop a climate for our reporters and political leaders to feel secure criticizing the president's decisions these last few days.  The sooner this occurs the better for the victims of this horrible tragedy, as it will force George to respond more quickly and substantially.

Our country and the world need a stable Iraq and I don't think we can declare this goal unrealistic, because we've been using the same ineffective playbook since the day we invaded.  There is another way, advocated by many in this party, but we don't have the ability to implement these plans because we're out of power.  So my solution is to stop suggesting that the direction of the war is completely up to the president, as he is already proven incompetent and reckless, and instead make the job of winning this war the responsibility of Congressional Democrats.

Our party must vehemently demand increased Congressional oversight, and a complete overhaul in the policy and leadership of this war.

When the most powerful politician in the state says, "I don't think he's worth challenging," he is essentially doing one of a few things:

1) He's discouraging any Democrat who was considering a run to run.  

Reid's statements and actions have sent a signal to any Democrat who may be thinking of running, that they will at best receive little to no support from the state's strongest politician and leader of the Senate caucus, and at worst be discouraged by the party.  For example:
-No support from the DSCC
-Moneymen refuse to fundraise
-County chairmen refuse to allow votes on endorsement
-Labor won't take the calls
-The state party won't share its list