This comes as a bit of a carry-over from: There is Reason to Worry - Daily Kos, as that came out before the disaster that was the debate. And let’s not beat around the bush… the debate was band and pretty much confirmed EVERYTHING the Republicans have thrown at Biden regarding his age and/or dementia. For this is the image that Biden gave the world in that debate...
And that WASN’T a good image. Substantively, Biden did better than Trump, sure, but that doesn’t say much. A dead rat rotting in the sun would have more substantive truth than Trump, and that’s NOT what people were looking for.
The American people have long preferred style to substance. It’s why FDR did his best to conceal his paralysis during his presidency and only stopped in late 1944 to 1945 as age and fatigue caught up with him. By that time, Roosevelt had already won reelection and was in a relatively strong position politically. Biden does NOT have Roosevelt’s luxury. Biden is going into an election, and one where even before the debate the polling did NOT favor him and the top issues for all voters largely favored Trump to begin with. Thus mumbling, stumbling, and looking lost with his mouth open when not answering questions is NOT good response when the opponent looks competent and won the debate on style over substance. Note: Democrats really have no way to spin this. We break down Biden’s disastrous debate. - Politico.
And that leaves the Democrats in a position where Biden MUST step down. Be in favor of Kamala Harris or someone else. For the sake of democracy… he MUST step down, and the facts show this.
One: Polling…
Biden was already in a bad place regarding the polls even before the debate. He was behind in most
of the major swing states. At the time, it was hoped that Trump’s habit of emotional calls to his own supporters, warring with the moderators, and other poor debate skills would show through, and Biden would be able to show a calm and measured tone. Something that would give undecided voters a reason to vote for Biden.
And in the wake of Trump’s criminal conviction and his own mental issues, Biden was actually climbing in the polls, mostly on the back of independent voters who likely favored Biden’s experience over Trump’s free-wheeling chaos. But that all put a lot of pressure on Biden, as his gains in the polls prior to the debate were by very narrow margins. Instead, Biden essentially flopped pretty much confirmed to voters that at the very least that old age is catching up with him, and rapidly. The polling response has been swift and obvious… Trump went into the debate with a lead around 0.4 according to 270 to Win’s average of national polls. Now, a week later, Trump’s lead is 3.7% in the national polls. See: 270 to Win - National Polls and some other pollsters have put Trump up by 5 points nationally, about the same margin that Trump couldn’t overcome in 2020. And that’s before we get into the electoral map...
And that map is even worse. For post-debate, Trump surged ahead in New Hampshire and New Jersey, both of which are typically safe Democratic states in Presidential elections. This slide is likely also going to carry with it several other states, and as of right now, the most obvious would-be Virginia and Minnesota, both of which were either tied or with Biden with a narrow lead in the state. New Mexico probably isn’t all that safe, either.
As it stands… based on present polling, Biden has exactly a zero percent chance of winning. And by polls alone, that’d be enough to worry… In pure theory, one could argue that Biden could overcome this drop… but it needs to be noted that Biden is not Obama in 2012 nor is he Reagan after his bad debate. Trying to draw comparisons to them is not the same. Obama in 2012 was much younger than Biden is now (and was then), and thus points as to why Obama did as poorly as he did in the first debate with Romney would be believable. Biden does NOT have that luxury and other factors reinforce that point.
Two: Age and/or Dementia
The claim that Biden is suffering from Dementia, or something like it is nothing new. There were accusations of this that went back into the 2020 election cycle, with much the same intention as has been the case in the present election cycle. In 2020 those accusations were found to be false, note: Geriatrics experts say Brit Hume’s claim that Joe Biden is ‘senile’ is wrong - PolitiFact. However, it should be noted that no one’s age stays static and neither does the effects of aging. Thus, what may have been wrong in 2020 could be right today. For Biden is not the same guy he was four years ago and certainly isn’t the same guy who served as Obama’s VP for eight years, and to a degree, the Republicans have been well aware of that. It’s also why they’ve continued to level these attacks on Biden over the course of his term as President… That all of the “catastrophes” that have been the result of Biden having Dementia and not knowing where he is.
Before the debate… the Biden shrugged off a lot of these attacks by making the claim that Biden knows what he’s doing and how to govern and that many of these attacks made on him have either been “faked,” as per some of the photos and movies shot by the RNC at the D-Day commemoration or taken out of context by partisan actors. The claims at the time were accurate that the accusations were not being made with actual evidence of signs of Dementia or anything related at the time, and that the Republican Party had every reason to keep that line of attack on Biden. One it would serve as a means of projection to keep people focused on Biden rather than on Trump, who’s had comparable and potentially WORSE mental lapses. Note: Donald Trump's cognitive decline worse than Joe Biden's due to 2 signs, professor says - MSN. The other would be that it’s been the only real attack the Republicans have been able to land on Biden personally that has stuck since 2020.
Had Biden been able to at least put up an “okay” performance in the debate, he would have shown that while he may be slowing with age, he was still functioning and thus justifying his claims that the claims made by Republicans were without merit. However, that ISN’T what we got in the Debate. If anything, Biden’s debate performance only confirmed that the Republican attacks on his age and mental fitness were actually correct and were simply made without evidence. It’s a case where hunches can be proven right, and that’s added to other polling shake ups in the time since the debate. Note: CNN Poll: Most voters think Democrats have a better chance of keeping White House if Biden isn’t the nominee - CNN and note specifically the figure that only ¼ of those polled think Biden can win. They also note that 72% of those CNN polled find Biden physically/mentally incapable of doing the job.
Now, this isn’t to say that Biden actually has Dementia or that the people polled by CNN are all rabid Trump supporters. The debate performance was really only the first time that the American people have really seen anything that would provide warnings of something like Dementia, and to a degree, some of that could be countered. However, proving that Biden doesn’t have Dementia doesn’t necessarily prove that old age isn’t catching up with him and isn’t affecting his ability to the job. And the reporting on this has also confirmed a lot of these sorts of issues and concerns. It is all very real, and Biden’s camp really hasn’t done much to challenge the perception. Biden blames jet lag and travel for poor debate performance - BBC and Biden suggests to allies he might limit evening events to get more sleep - NBC News. None of this really helps Biden any...
I’d be willing to say that Biden’ isn’t actually suffering from Dementia… but by his own admission, things such as international travel and the workload are wearing on him. In this, Biden is actively showing many of the same things that plagued both Woodrow Wilson and FDR in the last years of their respective Presidencies. That age and energy are rapidly catching up with him, and neither are good things that can be easily overcome. Some may hope for better performances by Biden in the future, and some of that could be possible, but given age and energy, Biden is likely to face the same fates that Wilson and FDR faced. Wilson… fighting for the ratification of the Versailles Treaty as he negotiated it in France found himself struggling with facts, his memory, and fumbling with notecards. He ultimately had a stroke while on the campaign and finished his second term as an invalid. By 1945, Roosevelt no longer had the energy to wear the braces that enabled him to “stand,” and it was also noted at Yalta on how “old” Roosevelt looked when compared to the other Allied leaders… and Roosevelt was the YOUNGEST of the big three.
This in and of itself represents its own form of hubris… Note: The Hubris of Politicians - Phillips’s Newsletter. Even if Biden doesn’t have Dementia… old age is catching up with him, and his statements on needing more sleep and blaming the debate performance reflect that. And as such, even without Dementia… Biden NEEDS to step down. There really isn’t much that he can do to change the perception of things based on his age. For age and energy issues will always be there. The present war in Ukraine is going on day and night… China is not going to limit its actions to between 10 AM to 8 PM Eastern time in order to fit into Biden’s schedule. In this, stepping down would be the best thing that Biden can do for both him and his party… And that’s something that would certainly be reasonably well received and might bring voters back to the Democrats. For note that the CNN includes a picture showing those who clearly would support Biden’s policies and thank him for his service.
Three: What About Trump Vs. The Other Candidates?
Some of this may be brought up to try and defend Biden remaining in the race and is likely built around the fact that Biden beat Trump in 2020. And to a degree, some of the numbers would not necessarily be great for Kamala Harris, the only candidate the Democrats could turn to that would retain the war chest of money already donated… Harris vs. Trump polls - The Hill. And Trump does lead Harris, but note some of the trends they start with…
In February of last year, Trump would have lead Harris 50 to 40, a ten-point lead. And if that advantage had held steady since then, the argument that Biden would do better would have some validity. However, by October of that year, the hypothetical poll narrowed to a less than 5-point lead for Trump and at present, Trump’s lead is under 3 points against Harris according to the Hill’s polling. In that, in little over a year, Harris, despite concerns on her own approval rating, which haven’t been great, Kamala Harris Approval Rating - Project 538, has pretty much erased a ten-point lead that Trump would have had in a hypothetical matchup about a year ago. And from the Hill’s polling, it would also appear to be continuing to narrow while Trump’s polling lead is only going to continue to grow after his debate performance reinforced by the perception of his age.
All of this reflects the fact that Trump is not invincible… and in many ways has many of the same liabilities as Biden when it comes to age related issues. As noted, before, experts have warned that Trump’s age and mental acuity have been worse off than Biden’s. However, because the Trump campaign, or those supporting it, have been throwing that insult out since 2020, drawing attention to it only then plays into the whole “both-sides” claims that the Republicans have also always used to their own benefit with great success. Which in turn means that so long as Biden remains in the race, that will be used, even if Biden does well in the upcoming ABC interview and Trump makes a very public flub that many people see. People will note Biden’s age and see it as a problem… Kamala Harris, however, won’t have those issues and thus the one attack that Trump can reliably land will no longer work.
That then adds into Trump’s other issues in that unlike Biden or Harris, or any of the possible Democratic replacements for Biden, Trump is a convicted felon. Granted, it was only for hush money and business fraud in 2015 to 2016 as part of his first run for President, and something that most people may not understand… but it is still a criminal conviction, which would only reinforce the perception of criminality around Trump’s involvement surrounding January 6 and stealing classified documents. And for as much as the Republicans try to run on “law and order” in nearly every election, the fact that their top candidate has been convicted of 34 felonies and accused of others and is only being protected by a Florida judge he nominated and a Supreme Court with a total body of nine and of which he put a third of them on the bench. A former prosecutor in Kamala Harris could easily put Trump on his back foot with regard to the whole “law and order” issue… and without an easy “Biden’s old” attack, Trump’s lead is likely to continue to shrink over time.
Even if the Democrats nominate someone other than Harris… I would suspect that Trump’s criminal conviction would serve to hit him hard and put him in a position where any lead he has would not be easily sustainable… and without the one thing that gives Trump a 100% chance of victory against Biden, Trump would have to change a lot of his tune… something he doesn’t have a great track record of doing. And that’s before we get into the nostalgia polling that has Michelle Obama crushing Trump. Michelle Obama Crushes Donald Trump in Hypothetical Matchup - Newsweek. Now, it’s doubtful that Michelle Obama would do it… and the Newsweek article does point to the numbers that the Biden campaign would use to stay in the race regarding Trump’s lead against other possible candidates…
But as said, Trump has a criminal conviction, Harris and many of the other possible Democrats do not. It’d be something where Trump’s lead over the others is not likely to last, particularly when the earlier CNN article notes that most voters think that just about anyone other than Biden would beat Trump. It may not turn out to be a big win… but a win is a win.
Four: What About the Money?
This may also be brought up as a reason for Biden to stay in the race… in that he has acquired a fairly large war chest of money as the 2024 campaign began, and for a time was well outdoing Trump in terms of fund raising. On the surface that seems like a strong reason, however, there are also holes in it.
One is that as of right now, the longer Biden stays in the more likely the biggest donors aren’t going to donate to ANY Democrat. Note: Disney heiress, wealthy Democratic donors say they won’t finance the party until Joe Biden drops out - CNBC and that line that they won’t finance the PARTY. In this, the longer Biden stays in, he’s not only hurting his own funding but the funding for ANYONE down ballot, which isn’t a good thing when we consider that the Republicans are in a favorable position to gain 4 to 5 seats in the Senate when they only need one, assuming Trump wins the Presidency. And also, when the generic polling for Congressional representation is also pretty narrow. See: Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress? - Project 538. The Democrats presently lead, but it’s only by a 0.3 margin… and that’s with a Congress that’s done virtually nothing since Republicans took the House in the midterms. That lead WILL vanish if down ballot Democrats aren’t getting the funding needed to run ads.
And here, this is where Kamala Harris could well be an asset. As Biden’s Vice President, she’s already on the ticket, and according to: Here’s how Harris could take over Biden’s campaign cash if he drops out and she runs for president - AP News, she would be able to access the campaign funds that have already been raised for the Biden/Harris ticket. That money will only have to be refunded if Biden drops out and the Democrats don’t take Harris as the nominee. This could hurt someone like Newsome or Whitmer… but that may only be a short-term issue, as many of these donors, after being refunded might just donate again to the new ticket, and with Biden out… the down ballot Democrats wouldn’t face issues that come donors not donating until Biden is either voted out or steps down.
The other big issue is that people can donate all the money they wish… but that doesn’t always mean the biggest donor wins. For example, in some of the recent elections, the Democrats have well outspent their Republican opponents… but the Republican still won the race. Look back to Jaime Harrison’s loss to Lindsey Graham in 2020. From Senator Lindsey Graham wins reelection in South Carolina, CBS News projects - CBS News, Graham was outspent 100 million to 74 million and polls had the race as a tossup. Yet, when Graham won… note: Senate: South Carolina Results - CNN the margin was by over ten points in Graham’s favor. That race was NOT a tossup and Graham won comfortably, despite being outspent by nearly 30 million dollars. So, even if a Democrat other than Harris takes over the ticket and is thus outspent by Trump… that in and of itself does NOT mean that people will vote for who spends the most money, and as such, the money should NOT be a reason to keep Biden in the race.
Five: What About History and When Others Dropped Out Early
This could also be brought up as a means to try and keep Biden in the race… That after LBJ announced he wouldn’t accept the Democratic Party nomination that Nixon would go on to beat Johnson’s VP, Hubert Humphrey lost to Richard Nixon… See: 1968 Presidential Election - 270 To Win. And at first glance this would seem like an easy point, as Johnson did drop out and Humphrey was ultimately unable to defend Johnson’s record against Nixon’s attacks. However, the 1968 race is more complicated than that is very different from the situation in 2024 race.
For there, the largest single issue in 1968 was the war in Vietnam, a war that LBJ’s record was deeply tied to given both political and military mismanagement. Humphrey as LBJ’s Vice President would be heavily tied to the war and the decision-making, even if Humphrey was not directly involved in said decision-making. And with Humphrey supporting at least elements of LBJ’s policies regarding Vietnam, that hurt Humphrey with many in the Democratic Party’s liberal base that was very much against the Vietnam War, which then made Nixon’s “peace with honor” seem more attractive to independent voters who were also upset with LBJ’s handling of the Vietnam War. Note:
On the other hand, Humphrey would display increasing conservatism (to the dismay of more left-wing Americans) as the administration’s leading spokesman for U.S. war policy during the conflict in Vietnam. — Hubert H. Humphrey - History
And by 1968 the support for the war in Vietnam was rapidly dropping. The events of things like the Tet Offensive would only add to the pressures that were coming down on LBJ and Humphrey by association. Note:
While a March 1967 poll had shown that more than half of Americans supported the way Johnson was handling the war, by early 1968 that proportion was down to about a third. The antiwar movement became more grounded in political analysis than in the starry-eyed assurance of earlier protesters, Anthony DeCurtis tells LIFE. “It was about capitalism and about something that needed to be overthrown,” he says, “and not by consciousness.” — Behind the Anti-War Protests That Swept America in 1968 - Time
In this, the race in 1968 was not so much about LBJ stepping out of the race but over who would have replaced him on the Democratic side. For, Humphrey could be attached to LBJ’s handling of the war while his opponents for the Democratic nomination, Eugene McCarthy and Robert F. Kennedy did not. And while RFK may have supported elements of his brother’s policies in Vietnam and elements of LBJ’s policies in Vietnam, as the war progressed, the more and more critical RFK became of the war. This would eventually reach points leading into the 1968 race where RFK was making very vocal criticisms of the war in ways that Humphrey couldn’t, and that Nixon was largely staying silent on beyond “peace with honor.” Note: Robert F. Kennedy's Critique of the Vietnam War - The Classroom. In this, had either RFK or McCarthy won the Democratic nomination over Humphrey, it is possible that the Democrats might have done better, as the independents who wanted peace might well have seen Nixon as something more of a warmonger than the peacemaker he claimed to be in 1968.
The closest comparison to the Vietnam War in 1968 would be the present Russo-Ukraine war, and there a good many things are very different. For in 1968 most Americans were turning against the war in Vietnam. In 2024 most Americans continue to support Ukraine, and in fact the idea that we should be doing more to help Ukraine is high among polling in America. See: More Americans Say U.S. Is Not Helping Ukraine Enough - Gallup. And while the Gallup polling suggests that Trump and the Republicans hold a lead on the issue, it’s a narrow lead and one that I’d argue is misleading. For unlike Nixon, who understood politics very well and understood policy and how to shape it… Trump is a bragging loudmouth who will say the first thing that comes into his head, regardless of how smart it is. This has included Trump praising Putin for his invasion in 2022. Trump calls Putin ‘genius’ and ‘savvy’ for Ukraine invasion - Politico.
Which in many ways shows that Trump is actually running against the will of the American people with regard to the war in Ukraine. He can claim all he wants about how he doesn’t like the destruction and so on, but he’s also been very vague with what his plan for “peace” is. And when asked, it’s often been some rambling speech on how he gets along well with everyone, and Putin respects him and that everyone would come to his idea and never mentioning a single detail on what this peace would actually be. Biden had a shot to get Trump to openly admit that his plan for peace in Ukraine is for Ukraine to capitulate to ALL of Putin’s demands and because of his poor performance, attention to Trump’s desire to appease Putin isn’t in the news and allowing Trump to continue to skate by on vague promises of ending the war in a day… And that’s all something where the Democrats hold the lead in the Gallup polling on support for Ukraine and have the window to show that Trump is the world’s modern Neville Chamberlain when it comes to dealing with Putin.
But so long as Biden’s age remains the most important issue, Ukraine’s freedom remains in jeopardy. And all of which shows on how the present election is not like that of 1968. And of course, there are other obvious differences, this time coming into the general election.
For while Nixon was involved behind the scenes in hurting LBJ’s chances at a negotiated end to the war, which might have helped Humphrey, it should be noted that this was still largely an unknown to the general public. As such, so far as the general public knew, Nixon was not yet the crook that he would be exposed as with regard to Watergate in 1972, see: Watergate Scandal - History. Thus, in 1968, Nixon may have been seen as tricky, but not a crook. In contrast, Trump IS a crook with a felony conviction, something that Nixon didn’t even face AFTER Watergate. And the fallout from Watergate pretty much assured that when Ford ran for reelection in 1976 against Jimmy Carter he would lose. So, even if the Democrats face the chaos of a repeat of 1968 the Republicans also face the repeat of the fallout of a crook in 1976. Which further shows that 2024 shouldn’t be treated like 1968.
Six: The Independents...
This would relate to polling shift in point one and one where things could go back the Democrats way. For while Trump’s lead has grown in the polling so far as 270 to Win’s averages note, in looking through them, it would seem that the growth in Trump’s lead is not a case of a large number of voters going over to Trump. In fact, when the independent candidates are added, a fair number of Trump’s votes are actually taken away. This reflects a fair number of points that I mentioned in There IS Reason To Worry... - Daily Kos and some of the confusing data on what the independent candidates are doing in the race.
For we know that Biden has lost core elements of the Democratic base going into the debate and that his path to victory was going to be very narrow and one that would also need to include an at least decent debate performance. And even that might have only won enough independents over to him to eke out a narrow win and to make up for the loss in support from traditional Democratic voters. The disastrous debate performance is not going to fix that issue with Democratic voters drifting away from Biden and it certainly isn’t going to win independent voters over. And that has helped Trump swell his lead over Biden, but there are some key factors that would take some consideration.
Factors that would go beyond Trump’s bragging on how well he did at looking good in the debate and how that’s improved his position. Trump would have one believe that the lead he’s gained is a result of voters coming directly over to him. And with the head-to-head poll that’s probably true, but that isn’t where the race completely is. Note the polling from where Trump got the highest head-to-head number out of the other polls:
Specific Polling Numbers, Post Debate With Highest Numbers For Trump HEAD-TO-HEAD
National 2024 Presidential Election Polls - 270 To Win
Source |
Date |
Sample |
Biden |
Stein |
Kennedy |
West |
Oliver |
Trump |
Undecided/Other |
CBS/YouGov — Trump v. Biden head-to-head |
7-3-2024 |
2,826 RV +/- 2.3% |
48% |
- |
- |
- |
- |
50% |
2% |
CBS/YouGov — Trump v. Biden with Independent Candidates |
7-3-2024 |
2,826 RV +/- 2.3% |
40% |
3% |
11% |
2% |
- |
44% |
0% |
And here, we can see with this particular poll, in the head-to-head, Trump would actually gain the most support as a result of it, as in the polls prior to the debate, Trump did not have 50% of the country supporting him as far as 270 to Win’s averages would show. After the debate, his support DOES climb to 50%, which does show a boast from the debate, even if the lead is only by 2 points in a head-to-head matchup with Biden. And on the surface, this might actually look good for Biden in the head-to-head, since in most of the polls prior, he was lucky to even get around 42% of responders, and here, even in a losing effort, he gets 48%.
But then comes the inclusion of the independent candidates, and they hurt BOTH Biden and Trump. And here, Biden comes out far worse, losing 8% of support to the independents to Trump’s 6%. But the fact that there is such a drop from both candidates would be indicative that while Trump did “win” the debate, that had more to do with his managing to avoid slurring and rambling onto tangents that have plagued him in prior debates and some of his more recent rallies. Thus, Trump didn’t truly win support in the debate as it was that he was the only one that LOOKED good on the stage on that night, and in a head-to-head where there is no other option, most responders chose Trump because of that, not because they actually support anything he wants to do.
The fact that Biden lost 8% of his support, however, reinforces the fact that he had a bad night and showed traits that would confirm that at the least old age is catching up with him, and in a way that cannot be recovered. The fact that Trump gains a larger margin of victory in the CBS/YouGov poll with fewer people supporting him further highlights issues, where regardless of the 2.3 margin of error, Trump has pretty much won when the independents are considered and that there is no wiggle room for Biden. The real optimism for Democrats would be more in a case where Biden and his age wouldn’t be a factor.
For a younger candidate, for the sake of the money raised, Kamala Harris, would not carry Biden’s issues that would be reflected in the drop in support when the independent candidates are factored in. She could be better trusted to do better than what Biden did in the past debate and could win an appeal to many of those younger and other traditional Democratic voters that were drifting away before the debate and would rebalance the scales with regard to the independents that left because of the debate and dealing with the independent candidates that have so far benefitted the most from Biden’s bad debate performance.
Now… there might still be the unpredictability things that would relate to the presence of those other independent candidates on the ballot, and to a great degree, just about any of the possible alternates to Biden may have reason to worry in the short term… but they’d have a better chance of victory… particularly if they can bring back those traditional Democratic voters with them.
Seven: Harris and Biden’s Record…
While one could argue that the economy isn’t perfect and that Biden underestimated how fast demand would come back as the worst of the pandemic began to cool, he has looked over a fairly steady recovery in jobs and wages. And wages have largely gone up, though the issue of inflation has helped negate a lot of those things through 2021 to 2022 and recovery on that angle didn’t begin until late 2022 and going through 2023. And from: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation tracker shows cooling prices. Here's the impact on rates. - CBS News, it would also appear that the numbers on inflation are continuing to improve, which can mean good things for the economy and that while things aren’t perfect, Biden’s actual handling of the economy has not been as bad as Trump made it out to be in the debate.
Trump did attack on inflation, and factually he was wrong as to how bad it is now… but he did tie into many of the feelings that many people have on the economy. Much of which comes from the initial underestimation on how bad inflation would be. But as noted in There IS Reason To Worry... - Daily Kos, with the economy, and specifically inflation being the top issue across the board, and an issue
where Trump holds the advantage, at present, that’s where the play to people’s feelings on the economy is a good strategy for Trump. For people will often vote where their pocket bock is and if they don’t feel well about the economy… they will vote whoever promises them prosperity, even if the promise is lie filled and even if the situation is actually better than they think.
But Trump’s position is not ironclad. He’s promised prosperity, yes, but it’s the same lie that people have been accepting from Republicans since the 1980s that “if we just give money to rich people, everything will trickle down.” The only thing that Trump has added to his economic policies for his second term is an expansion of his trade wars from his first term and raising the tariffs on China even higher… Something that experts have argued would make inflation WORSE. See: 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists say Trump policies will fuel inflation - Reuters. In this for as much as Trump is playing to people’s emotions regarding things like inflation and doing so quite successfully… when looking at the details of his proposed solutions to inflation, he will actually CAUSE more inflation.
Now, Biden did try to draw attention to this during the debate but given the lackluster performance in the debate as a whole… most points on that were effectively lost. More has been written on how bad Biden’s performance was and NOT on how bad Trump’s plans are, or that Biden did try to draw attention to it. And with that performance that has only continued to raise concerns on Biden’s capability, which raises ANOTHER major issue that Trump has a major lead on. This distracts Biden from the work to improve the economy anyone from drawing attention that for as much as the Republicans claim to be “defenders of capitalism,” their economic plan sounds awfully like the sort of autarky that Mussolini’s Italy, Hitler’s Germany, and Stalin’s Soviet Union, all of which ANTI-CAPITALIST, would approve of.
But this would again be a point where Biden stepping out of the reelection race and handing the campaign over to Harris would be of benefit. Biden could give Harris some means of coaching on the nature of his policies and directly involve her in at least some of the negotiations with Congress, and particularly the Senate, where Harris has been heavily involved in breaking 50/50 ties. It would give her some more experience on what is going on and on the major policy ideas going forward to try and fight at least the effects of inflation. It would let Harris then be able to place a better defense on the policies that have been put in place than what Biden has managed and would allow Biden to finish his term focused on actual policy rather than trying to do two things at once, which his advancing age would seriously limit his ability to do.
And since Trump wouldn’t be able to use “Biden is old and suffering from dementia” to attack Harris, she would then have a better chance present the warning and information that Trump’s proposed policies will not address the issues in the way the people that think he is better for the economy think. That would then have a better chance to narrow the gap on the issue and let the economy continue to recover from the problems that all can be traced back to Trump and his management of the Covid pandemic, with some connections to his “let's give money to rich people” in 2017.
But Instead…
Biden has vowed to fight on… Joe Biden vows to stay in fight with Trump as pressure to quit mounts - Financial Times. This means that Biden’s age will remain the most pressing issue from now to November, an issue that a supermajority of all Americans and a majority of all Democrats feel Biden can no longer stand on. This will then influence everything else in the race on the economy, democracy, foreign policy, and every other issue. Many of these issues being ones where Trump has a lead over Biden, including on the defense of democracy so far as the swing states are concerned. Biden’s presence on the ticket will also assure that the Democrats have no money going forward for the rest of the campaign, assuring that the Republicans will hold the House and gain the Senate.
Now, could it be possible that Biden reverses the fall suffered in debate? The answer is NOT OF HIS OWN ACTION. Biden would need to thrash Trump multiple times in future debates to show he is capable and that the past debate performance was a result of factors beyond Biden’s control, but that is impossible. For Biden has admitted to age related issues having an effect on him, and as such, he’s not going to thrash Trump in any future debates. He may recover enough to beat Trump in future debates, but not on the level that he’s going to need to, and even if he does it once, the fact that Biden needs to do so MULTIPLE times makes it even LESS likely. Biden also NEEDS Trump to go out and make lots of very noisy mistakes… and there… Trump is not taking that bait. Note: Trump, for now, is ceding the spotlight to Biden as the president’s campaign reels from bad debate - AP News. For Trump may not know how to govern, but he DOES know how to campaign… and from a point of strategy, Trump knows he doesn’t have to do anything to win going forward.
And it’s also clear that Biden can do nothing on his own to reverse the results of the debate. His age will remain a point that people will doubt and question… which will tie into the various issues were Biden trails Trump in opinion polls and confidence. It will feed areas where people will go on their present feelings and will not look into the details on Trump’s plans. It is where Biden presently has a zero percent chance of winning without Trump making an equally big mistake… and that’s hard to do when Trump is essentially toning down a lot of his campaign activity. The only thing Biden can do that is within his control to assure Trump’s defeat is to step down… let someone else run, with Harris being the best choice at present. But it would seem that he won’t do that and will drag the entire party down with him…
In this, the Kingdom of Trump begins here… and we’ll all get what we deserve.