Democrats have controlled the media cycle since the debate. Not necessarily in a good way. But before the debate, i could always count on several Trump stories (sometimes a whole plethora) being in my feed. And AI doesn’t help, the f*cker was in there, anyway. Didn’t matter i never clicked on them. But now? Nothing. Nada. Trump’s gone silent???
Here’s the thing. We don’t remember disciplined Trump. Most of us probably only remember a narcissist driven by his whims. The Trump who seduces a porn star, threatens to expel Mexicans and campus protesters (even if they are American citizens), who says the most outrageous things aloud (on, late nights, social media). That’s the Trump the Biden team planned to trigger in the debate. The Trump who disgusts and repels ordinary average Americans.
But he’s disappeared.
Look, that is great for his campaign. It’s exactly what the Trump campaign wants.
And, characteristically, when Trump is (mostly) silent, his poll number rise. Like clockwork.
Which is why Biden’s debate strategy was to bring out “the true Trump,” Trump unhinged. We can all admit that the president failed to do that, and it would be easy to admit he needs a teleprompter now to do that. As much hatred as the president has for Trump, he couldn’t bring himself to follow the plan.
Here’s the problem. Trump has been a disciplined candidate before. He’s been a controlled candidate before. And it worked (i’d argue that he got a lot of help from the Russians, but).
Donald Trump’s rise in the polls has come after weeks in which he learned to stay out of his own way on the campaign trail.
[...]
His chief handlers—Steve Bannon, Kellyanne Conway, and David Bossie—have been focused for weeks on trying to control his penchant for drifting off message.
In the final days of the 2016 campaign, a
new self-discipline comes as the election tightens and polls indicate a razor-close race in battleground states such as Florida, New Hampshire and Colorado. On the stump Wednesday night in Florida, Trump revealed how he is focused on staying disciplined and how hard it is for him.
[...]
But now, the GOP nominee is suddenly showing remarkable discipline. He is restraining himself on Twitter and is largely sticking to script during speeches at rallies.
Many people credit Kellyanne Conway for it, perhaps because no one believed Steve Bannon could be responsible for it.
The 2020 campaign thought it could sustain that disciplined approach.
His re-election campaign is looking a lot more conventional.
[...]
Some close to the campaign have suggested options to keep Mr. Trump away from Twitter when Democratic debates start, to avoid any running commentary.
But people, especially the press, credited someone not named Trump for that approach and that didn’t work for him. Because, you know, narcissist. But there's a difference between 2016, 2020 and 2024. This time it’s personal, and he’s showing himself willing to put up with a lot in order to succeed.
Republicans close to Trump said there are multiple reasons Trump is running a competent campaign. First, his tight inner circle is made up of veteran operatives Susie Wiles, Chris LaCivita, Jason Miller, and James Blair, who don’t play their agendas through the media.
[...]
Secondly, Trump trusts his senior team members to do their jobs. In prior cycles, Trump worked the phone constantly, soliciting advice from a wide circle of friends, family, Manhattan business associates, and media personalities. Trump’s style of pitting staffers against one another created an incentive to leak. “The side whose opinion lost would run to the media,” the 2020 veteran explained. “This time, he’s not talking to randos.” That said, Trump hasn’t totally quit his phone habit. According to sources, he speaks with Stone, Lewandowski, and 2016 campaign chairman Paul Manafort.
Finally, Trump is disciplined because the stakes of this campaign are existential. Trump faces 91 felony counts across four criminal cases, the outcome of which could send him to jail for the rest of his life. Trump’s best chance at protecting his freedom is to win the presidency.
This is the Trump who denies being connected to “Project 2025.” And Democrats aren’t prepared for that.
I heard one participant in a meeting ask, “when are they going to let Trump be Trump again?” Kind of emphasizes how much we have built this entire around “unhinged Trump.” But what if that Donald Trump stays in his box? Sounds unreasonable, right? And there’s your problem. Maybe yes, maybe no — but we’ve built the whole next 4 months around one axiom, that “unhinged Trump” can be exposed.
So, sure, Biden came out of the debate with a crisis. But it’s exposed a fallacy, that “unhinged Trump” is the opponent. I’ll make a prediction here: Joe Biden will never be able to trigger “unhinged Trump.” It doesn’t matter if Joe Biden is frail or not, the debate proved that that dog won’t hunt. Donald Trump is a felon (perhaps not in his own mind, but who wants to go there?) and apparently no one cares. So our campaign plan is dead. It’s not dying, it’s dead. Trump is a felon, no one cares and he won’t be triggered by pointing it out. Every indication i have is that Trump is rising in the polls now. I don’t think anyone denies Trump has the momentum.
This is how bad it is. My feed is full of people suddenly shocked by “Project 2025,” which was established more than a year ago (April 21, 2023) and is not particularly different than the presidential transition project Heritage did in 2015. (Democrats do the same thing.) The voters Hope Springs volunteers talk are not talking about this. It would probably take a quarter of a billion dollars to get them talking about it.
Here’s what i was asked on Saturday knocking on doors in Pennsylvania: what is the president’s vision for the next 4 years? Of course, no one has answered my question yet: what is Biden’s path to 270? We are all running on faith here, and we need (for ourselves) a course correction...