This week, MAGA Republicans from all over the U.S. are coming to Milwaukee for their convention so they can officially make Donald Trump their nominee. Once you know why they picked this city, you’ll know exactly what to do.
The GOP is counting on the Republican National Convention to launch them to victory in the state that *just* escaped their grasp in 2020. But we can make it backfire. Help build a Cheddar Storm—a simultaneous flood of donations to WisDems. Chip in NOW.
Okay—why is the GOP putting its convention in Milwaukee, a city that Donald Trump thinks is “horrible?”
It’s a tactic to flip the state.
Historically, conventions do help a little. But they don’t determine the outcome.
On the one hand, this 2014 study of the 2000 and 2004 national conventions found that national conventions shift the voting preferences of people in the relevant city and the surrounding counties—not massively, but by a few percentage points.
On the other hand, the GOP (and conventions) of George W. Bush was a very different beast than the GOP of Donald Trump. Moreover, the same study found “Overall, we find Democrats are more likely to gain support in convention host communities than Republicans.”
There’s also the generic “convention bounce”—historically about five points—that registers in national polls... and then fades. But in 2020, this effect basically disappeared. Don’t be surprised if you see a swing, or no swing. Either way, probably temporary.
So the effect is not baked in. But you can see why the GOP is trying everything in its toolkit to win Wisconsin: because, as Trump said, “We win Wisconsin and we win the whole thing. We win the whole thing. So we got to win.”
On the path to 270, Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes will likely be the tipping point between Joe Biden and four more years of solid leadership, freedom, and democracy, or MAGA chaos and authoritarianism. This image shows the path to victory in states ordered by 2020 win margins:
Most states’ electoral votes are already decided, firmly red or blue. But in every presidential election, a handful of purple states could go either way. Wisconsin is one of those states—and was the tipping point in both 2016 and 2020.
In four of the last six elections, the margin of victory in Wisconsin has come down to less than one percentage point. No other state has had four nail-biters this century. No other state has had three. It’s wild how close Wisconsin elections are, over and over.
Right now, every polling aggregator finds the election is close yet again.
FiveThirtyEight: Trump +1.5; Biden wins 54/100 simulations
DecisionDeskHQ: Biden +0.5
NYT: Trump +2
270toWin: Trump +0.6
… that puts us, as we say here, within the margin of effort.
That’s why it’s time for a Cheddar Storm.
Because if we do everything in our power, we win this thing. Anything less, and it’s grim.
Let’s make this convention a bad week for Republicans in Wisconsin.
Chip in here and spread the word.
What does your donation do?
It helps us speed up hiring—which we’re doing right now. For organizers. For folks on our Voter Protection team. For operations specialists who make sure they’re ready to win.
Btw, come work with us!
Your donation buys clipboards and pays for gas as our rural organizers drive from small town to small town to work with local volunteers. It helps us pay for offices, from Milwaukee to the WOW counties to every corner of the state.
Your donation ensures we can keep both feet on the gas in every corner of Wisconsin—and welcome volunteers from all over the nation. Our distributed organizing staff, for example, runs weekly virtual phone banks. Join the WisDems call team here.
We work our way to victory. You can’t wring your hands when you’re rolling up your sleeves. If you want to fuel that kind of effort, chip in here.
Whichever way Wisconsin goes could be the difference between protecting reproductive rights nationwide—or bans on abortion, birth control, and IVF.
Between more and better jobs for working families—or tax cuts for billionaires and corporations.
Between strong, sensible, humane immigration policy that reflects American values—or tearing families apart, setting up massive camps on the Southern border, and putting children in cages.
Between sound environmental policy that reigns in climate change—or handouts to big polluters.
Between democracy—and dictatorship.
A few thousand voters in Wisconsin.
About a quarter of the crowd at Lambeau Field at a typical Packers game.
That’s the margin here.
If you want to ensure that Donald Trump loses Wisconsin in November, WisDems will put boots on the ground to reach voters all over Wisconsin. And that kind of organization needs cheddar.
The more cheddar we get during this Cheddar Storm, the more we show the GOP how committed Dems are to keeping Joe Biden in the White House, and winning races up and down the ballot this November. Chip into the Cheddar Storm and make it rain.