between now and election day, they will be added on a case-by-case basis
Here are the copies of the official maps as imposed by a tripartisan judicial panel, as every map going back to the 1960s has been, transposed into DRA. Election results cited in each district are: 2022 Gubernatorial Jensen (R) vs Walz (D), 2020 President Trump (R) vs Biden (D), and 2016 Presidential Trump (R) vs Clinton (D). Senate seats perfectly nest two House districts (A and B) inside them. The general numbering configuration is 4 groups:
1) typewriter style started in the NW corner and working east, then returning slightly further south and moving east again. This is done for the entirety of Outstate Minnesota. Senate districts 1 (NW corner) through 26 (SE corner) are considered outstate, which is a decrease in 2 Senate seats in Outstate Minnesota due to population hemorrhaging in the region with brain drain in full force in large swaths of the rural portions of the state.
2) Twin Cities suburbs also go typewriter style with SDs 27 (NW exurbs) through SD58 (SE exurbs), for 2 more than existed last decade due to population growth in the suburbs and urban cores, moving most districts inwards pretty significantly, with 2 “new” seats being added on the periphery from outstate
3) Minneapolis. The most Democratic white-majority major city in the entire country (Trump got a whopping 11% here). This includes SD59-63, unchanged in number from the previous decade, but having shed the tiny bits of first ring suburbs that had been included for population balance previously
4) St. Paul. Still overwhelmingly DFL stronghold, but not quite as liberal as its larger Twin to the west. This includes SD64-67, which is also unchanged from the previous decade, but also shed the vestigial chunks of inner suburbs due to population growth in the city.
District 1: Northwest Minnesota. 1A contains all of Kittson, Roseau, Marshall and Pennington Counties. 1B contains all of Polk, Red Lake, and Norman Counties, along with a sliver of rural Clay County. Representative John Burkel is running for a 3rd term, and will easily win again against his 2022 DFL opponent, optician James Sceville. Representative Deb Kiel is hanging it up after 7 terms. Republicans are running East Grand Forks mayor Steve Gander, who is about as strong of a successor as could be nominated. The DFL is putting up retired local newspaper editor Mike Christopherson against Gander, but Gander is a prohibitive favorite to succeed Kiel. There was a a slight amount of drama in 1B, as 2022 Legal Marijuana Now candidate Bull Johnson had tried to run again, but since LMN lost its major party status in the state, he was unable to meet the ballot signature requirements.
House 1A: 69-27 Jensen (’22), 68-30 Trump (’20), 64-28 Trump (’16)
HD1A Rating: Safe R
House 1B: 64-32 Jensen (’22), 62-36 Trump (’20), 59-33 Trump (’16)
HD1B Rating: Safe R
District 2: Immediately to the east of District 1 in northwestern Minnesota, 2A contains all of Lake of the Woods County, most of Beltrami (including all of college-town Bemidji) and the northern half of Clearwater County. 2B takes in pieces of many counties in northern Minnesota in a “leftovers” type of seat. Incumbent 2A State Representative / full-time alcoholic Matt Grossell (R) finally couldn’t survive his repeated alcohol-fueled arrests after his latest DUI last year and announced his retirement thereafter. Republicans are putting up police officer Bidal Duran Jr. Duran will face Grossell’s 2022 opponent Reed Olson, a Beltrami County Commissioner. Olson held then-cumbent Grossell to a 54-46 margin, and should be taken seriously, but this is an area that gets redder and redder every year with Walz winning it by 2 in 2018 and losing it by 8 four years later). The back-and-forth tug of war between incumbent 2B Representative Matt Bliss (R) and his former rival John Persell appear over. Bliss is safe for Reelection against DFL Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe tribal official Michael Reyes.
House 2A: 52-44 Jensen (’22) 51-47 Trump (’20), 51-39 Trump (’16)
HD 2A Rating: Likely R
House 2B: 60-36 Jensen (’22), 59-39 Trump (’20), 58-35 Trump (’16)
HD 2B Rating: Safe R
District 3: Welcome to the northern side of the Iron Range and the BWCA / Arrowhead. This area was the focus of much of the drama in the state last cycle, with it basically going a way no one (yours truly included) imagined. Senator Tom Bakk (D->R) flipped his caucus that cycle, then retired. On his way out he endorsed a Republican to succeed him in the Senate, and the two DFL incumbent Representatives. All 3 of them lost. This was an absolutely shock at the time. So the Senate Seate flipped R->D and both House seats flipped D->R on the same ballot. Roger Skraba (R) has long been a controversial political figure, long before he became a Republican and he is running for reelection in 3A, which is by far the geographically largest House seat in Minnesota after winning by 15 votes last cycle. The DFL got a solid recruit in International Falls Mayor Harley Droba. Skraba, a former mayor of Ely in his own right, is slightly favored as the incumbent in this reddening seat, but it’s going to be highly contested in November with a strong well-financed challenger. Freshman 3B representative Natalie Zeleznikar (R) caught fire against her geriatric incumbent opponent Mary Murphy in the 2022 election, unseating the 48-year incumbent with the election largely be focused on Murphy’s age and health by 33 votes. Zeleznikar is facing off against former state judge Mark Munger in this Biden+6/Walz+11 seat, and is among the most likely seats to flip this cycle. Unlikely the purely rural 3A, 3B is more accurately described as being suburban Duluth, and has not moved rightward in the Trump Era, following the pattern of other suburbs in Minnesota and around the country.
House 3A: Jensen 48.5-47.6 (’22), 52-46 Trump (’20), 50-42 Trump (’16)
House 3A Rating: Lean R
House 3B: 54-43 Walz (’22), 52-46 Biden, 48-44 Clinton
House 3B Rating: Lean D (flip)
District 4: This is Moorhead and the immediate surrounding area. SD4 was the ONLY district in the northern 60% of the state that was OVER populated and therefore shrunk ever so slightly geographically in the 2022 redistricting cycle. Sophomore Dem incumbent Heather Keeler is running for reelection in 4A, by far the more liberal district, composing primarily of Moorhead proper, drew token Republican opposition from Joshua Zincke.4B Freshman Republican Representative Jim Joy won his first term in 2022 when serial DFL overperformer Paul Marquardt retired last cycle, but it’s unlikely another Dem wins rural clay county for a long time. Former MN-7 DFL primary challenger Thaddeus Laugisch is running against Joy, but will not be a factor in November.
House 4A: 58-38 Walz (’22), 57-40 Biden, 49-40 Clinton
House 4A Rating: Safe D
House 4B: 59-37 Jensen (’22), 59-38 Trump (’20), 58-34 Trump (’16)
House 4B Rating: Safe R
District 5: This takes in a lot of west-central Minnesota: “lake country”. Freshman Krista Knudsen (R) is going to win easily against her 2022 opponent Hubbard County Democratic Party Vice Chair Brian Hobson in 5A. In 5B, freshman Mike Wiener will also face off against his 2022 opponent, but in different set of circumstances. Gregg Hendrickson got 24.4% against Wiener, but as a truly independent candidate, and there was no DFL candidate at all. This year, Hendrickson is running with the DFL label. It won’t get him close to Wiener, but saves him needing to petition his way onto the ballot.
House 5A: 67-30 Jensen (’22), 61-37 Trump (’20), 67-27 Trump (’16)
House 5A Rating: Safe R
House 5B: 71-25 Jensen (’22), 62-35 Trump (’20), 61-31 Trump (’16)
House 5B Rating: Safe R
District 6: Immediately to the east of District 5, still considered “lake country” but the seats are geographically smaller as they are disproportionately anchored by the cities of Grand Rapids and Brainard, and thus aren’t quite as overwhelmingly Republican. Republican Ben Davis is running for a second term in 6A against elderly retired farmer Early Butenhoff: a token challenger. Meanwhile in 6B, Josh Heintzeman faces another primary, as the gadflies tend to not like him for him not being angry enough for their tastes. Hentzeman is likely to defeat Matthew Zinda in August, and then go on to defeat DFL minister Emily LeClaire and Independence Candidate Troy Scheffler, a local crank who sues everyone he can, politicians, individuals, counties, companies, etc.
House 6A: 59-39 Jensen (’22), 61-37 Trump (’20), 59-34 Trump (’16)
House 6A Rating: Safe R
House 6B: 60-36 Jensen (’22), 62-36 Trump (’20), 61-31 Trump (’16)
House 6B Rating: Safe R
District 7: The core of the Iron Range. 7A is anchored by Hibbing, and 7B is anchored by Virginia. Republican Spencer Igo (7A) won his last election against a fellow incumbent when they were double bunked following the 2020 census redistricting. He will have an easier election this year against local teacher Aron Schnaser. 7B DFL incumbent Dale Lislegard is retiring after 3 terms in office with decreasing margins of victory every cycle as the district shifted under him. Democrats have gone with local civil servant Lorrie Janatopoulos. who unsuccessfully ran for St. Louis County Commission in 2010, and State House in 2012. Republicans have a primary though with Cal Warwas, a local civil servant and iron workers union steward is the younger candidate in the race, facing off against the much older 2010, 2014 and 2016 Republican nominee for state legislature Matt Matasich. Either Republican is going to start out as a modest favorite in November for a flip.
House 7A: 51-44 Jensen (’22), 55-43 Trump (’20), 51-41 Trump (’16)
House 7A Rating: Safe R
House 7B: 47.68-47.66 Jensen (’22), 51-47 Trump (’20), 47-44 Trump (’16)
House 7B Rating: Lean R (flip)
District 8: Duluth, the economic and cultural heart of northern Minnesota, a liberal bastion on the tip of Lake Superior. Incumbent Representative Liz Olson (D) is retiring in 8A. Her handpicked successor is Assistant Chief Firefighter Pete Johnson. Pete Johnson has a token primary opponent from the left in nonprofit executive Jordan Johnson. Pete Johnson will win the primary handily, though either candidate would hold this heavily Democratic seat against token Republican Mark McGrew a retired state trooper who entered the race at the last second because no other Republicans filed. Freshman DFLer Liish Kozlowski is running for a second term in 8B and will win a second term against either Tim Meyer or Shawn Savela, who face off in the GOP primary in August. Meyer is running as a big of a bona fide RINO, having been appointed to various boards by Governor Tim Walz (D) and Duluth Mayor Roger Reinert (D), but even if he were to win the primary, this is a 70% Biden/Walz seat, well out of reach of any Republican.
House 8A: 68-28 Walz (’22), 67-30 Biden, 59-31 Clinton
House 8A Rating: Safe D
House 8B: 71-25 Walz (’22), 70-28 Biden, 60-30 Clinton
House 8B Rating: Safe D
District 9: West central Minnesota, deeply conservative farmland with Fergus Falls being the only town of any note out there, and is the reason 9A is to the left of 9B. 12A Rep Jeff Backer (R) is running for reelection, but has formality-level challengers in both the primary and general election. He’s being challenged from the “right” (read: loud, not policy), by a local farmer Boone Carlson, and DFLer Some Dude Michael Ziomko. Backer will win both elections. Tim Murphy (R) is wrapping up his first term representing 9B.and will get his second after he wins the rematch from 2022 where he defeated Jason Satter (D) 70-30.
House 9A: 62-34 Jensen (’22), 63-35 Trump (’20), 61-31 Trump (’16)
House 9A Rating: Safe R
House 9B: 68-29 Jensen (’22), 68-30 Trump (’20), 66-27 Trump (’16)
House 9B Rating: Safe R
District 10: This is the large chunk of rural central Minnesota between St. Cloud and Brainard. Representative Ron Kresha (R-10A) drew a primary challenger from Trump-flavored retiree Diane Web-Skillings, and general election opponent, fellow retiree Julia Samsal-Hipp. Kresha will win both the primary and general election safely. In 10B there was another non-endorsement primary on the Republican side. Isaac Schultz (R-10B) had to navigate an extensive primary gauntlet in 2022 to get his first term in office. Now that he’s there, his second run is much more straightforward. He drew token opposition in DFLer JoEllen Burns.
House 10A: 67-30 Jensen (’22), 68-30 Trump (’20), 66-28 Trump (’16)
House 10A Rating: Safe R
House 10B: 74-22 Jensen (’22), 76-22 Trump (’20), 74-20 Trump (’16)
House 10B Rating: Safe R
District 11: This is the area along with Wisconsin boarder taking in the rural areas between the Twin Cities and Duluth, primarily Carlton County (~11A) and Pine County (~11B). We have another rematch in 11A, with freshman State Rep Jeff Dotseth (R) once again facing off against DFLer Pete Radosevich. Dotseth won the 2022 version 51-49, but now with incumbency he starts off a favorite to win the sequel.in this right-trending Biden/Walz seat. In 11B, incumbent Nathan Nelson is running for reelection and will face a far less interesting November in the far-redder half of this district against local Dem Eric Olson.
House 11A: 49-46 Walz (’22), 49.17-48.51 Biden, 56-45 Clinton
House 11A Rating: Lean R
House 11B: 63-33 Jensen (’22), 66-32 Trump (’20), 62-31 Trump (’16)
House 11B Rating: Safe R
District 12: Western Minnesota, with 12B basically being Alexandria, and 12A being the sparsely populated areas south and west of Alexandria. There hasn’t been a lot of turnover or turmoil over here the last few cycles. Representatives Paul Anderson, and Mary Franson are both running for reelection in safely Republican seats. Their token opponents are Becky Parker and Judd Hoff respectively. The only noteworthy thing is the DFL has distanced itself from Judd Hoff in 12B, as he is absolutely insane and violent.
House 12A: 63-33 Jensen (’22), 65-33 Trump (’20), 60-32 Trump (’16)
House 12A Rating: Safe R
House 12B: 66-31 Jensen (’22), 67-31 Trump (’20), 66-27 Trump (’16)
House 12B Rating: Safe R
District 13: This is the populated parts of Stearns County that is not St. Cloud, Much like SD-12, this one is easy, as both Republicans are running for reelection in safely Republican seats: Representatives Lisa Demuth and Tim O’Driscoll in 13A and 13B respectively. Cindy Aho and Dusty Bolstad are the sacrificial lambs who will lose to Demuth and O’Driscoll.
House 13A: 68-29 Jensen (’22), 69-29 Trump (’20), 66-27 Trump (’16)
House 13A Rating: Safe R
House 13B: 60-37 Jensen (’22), 61-36 Trump (’20), 62-30 Trump (’16)
House 13B Rating: Safe R
District 14: St. Cloud. This is going to be hotly contested turf, as it always is these days. Republican Bernie Perryman (14A) won his first term 50.64-49.25, but may have an easier time of it in 2024, as Dems really didn’t get a strong candidate, settling on businessman Abdi Daisane, a Somalian immigrant running on a “American Dream” platform with entrepreneurial focus.. In the slightly more liberal 14B incumbent Dan Wolgamott (D) is running for reelection against St. Cloud homeschooling advocate / Republican delegate Sue Ek. Wolgamott won his last election 52-58, so it’ll also be a close race.
House 14A: 49-47 Walz (’22), 49-48 Biden, 49-41 Trump (’16)
House 14A Rating: Lean R
House 14B: 50-46 Walz (’22), 50-46 Biden, 49-41 Trump (’16)
House 14B Rating: Lean D
District 15: Western Minnesota, south of the Minnesota River from the South Dakota border to the outskirts of Mankato. Chris Swedzinski (15A) and Paul Torkelson (15B) are safe for reelection in their respective seats against DFLers Anthony Studenmann and Tom Kuster. Torkelson-Kuster is a 2022 rematch won by Torkelson 73-27
House 15A: 64-33 Jensen (’22), 63-35 Trump (’20), 60-31 Trump (’16)
House 15A Rating: Safe R
House 15B: 66-31 Jensen (’22), 67-31 Trump (’20), 65-27 Trump (’16)
House 15B Rating: Safe R
District 16: The northern bank of the Minnesota River up to Wilmar and Litchfield. Dean Urdahl (R-16A) is leaving after 22 years in office. Scott Van Binsbergen, a local businessman is the heir-apparent to Urdahl, and is going to easily slide into his new seat in November after he defeats DFLer Kathy Hegestad. Incumbent Dave Baker (R-16B) is safe for reelection against USAF veteran Josiah Ampian (DFL).
House 16A: 65-32 Jensen (’22), 67-31 Trump (’20), 63-29 Trump (’16)
House 16A Rating: Safe R
House 16B: 62-35 Jensen (’22), 62-36 Trump (’20), 59-33 Trump (’16)
House 16B Rating: Safe R
District 17: Here we are getting closer to being considered SW Metro exurbs, taking in Hutchinson to parts of Carver County. Republican Dawn Gillman (17A) is serving a freshman term, and is running for a sophomore term , but has a formality primary against Wayne Olson and 2020 / 2022 DFL candidate Chad Tschimperle. Bobbie Harder had a free shot in the primary and general election for the then-open 17B, but this year she drew a DFL opponent, former Arlington City Councilwoman Jennifer Nuesse. Nuesse is definitely a solid step up from most sacrificial lambs, but this seat is simply too red for her to win.
House 17A: 66-31 Jensen (’22), 67-30 Trump (’20), 65-26 Trump (’16)
House 17A Rating: Safe R
House 17B: 66-31 Jensen (’22), 67-31 Trump (’20), 66-26 Trump (’16)
House 17B Rating: Safe R
District 18: Mankato and the immediate surrounding area, home to Minnesota State University. Jeff Brand (D-18A) is running for a third non-consecutive term. Former State Rep Sue Aklund declined for a rubber match against Brand, and so the GOP line goes to Erica Schwartz, which is a recruiting miss for the red team, so Brand is feeling good about his chances. In the bluer 18B, which is basically Mankato proper, Dem Luke Frederick is safe for reelection against Republican realtor Dar Vosburg.
House 18A: 52-46 Walz, (’22), 50-47 Biden, 47-43 Trump (’16)
House 18A Rating: Likely D
House 18B: 60-37 Walz (’22), 58-39 Biden, 48-40 Clinton
House 18B Rating Safe D
District 19: This seat is essentially Fairbault (19A) and Owatanna (19B) which lie half way between Minneapolis and the Iowa border on I-35. In a rarity, both seats are open. 19A Republican incumbent Brian Daniels is retiring after a decade in office. Republicans settled on Brad Finstad staffer and farmer Keith Allen as their standard bearer. Democrats settled on political neophyte Jessica Navarro as the DFLer set to lose to Allen in November. In 19B John Petersburg is also retiring after serving since 2012. Republicans have a primary coming up to see who replaces him. Mick Ditlevson a young local farmer, & Tom Sexton a retired USAF Colonel are headed to a primary in August. Either man will easily defeat DFL college administrator Edel Fernandez.
House 19A: 59-37 Jensen (’22), 60-37 Trump (’20), 58-33 Trump (’16)
House 19A Rating: Safe R
House 19B: 56-40 Jensen (’22), 59-38 Trump (’20), 58-33 Trump (’16)
House 19B Rating: Safe R
District 20: This is southeastern Minnesota along the border with Wisconsin down the Mississippi River from the edge of the Twin Cities down to Wabasha. Pam Altendorf (R-20A) has a far easier path for a second term than her first, when she had to fight in the primary and general. This year she drew token DFL opposition in Heather Anrdt. 20B incumbent Republican Steve Jacobs is also secure for a second term as well after he defeats veteran Hutch Hutchinson (D) in November.
House 20A: 52-45 Jensen (’22), 54-43 Trump (’20), 52-39 Trump (’16)
House 20A Rating: Safe R
House 20B: 61-36 Jensen (’22), 63-35 Trump (’20), 60-31 Trump (’16)
House 20B Rating: Safe R
District 21: The southwest corner of the state abutting South Dakota and Iowa. Joe Schomacker (R), the current 21A incumbent is going to win another term against American Independent* Creedence Petroff (no Democrat filed). In 21B, freshman Marj Fogelman (R), a political outsider in her own right, drew St. James Mayor Jon Wilson as a challenger. Wilson won’t defeat Fogelman, but Wilson is quite noteworthy as winning his term in office via write-in, the first such successful candidate for any office in Minnesota in a LONG time
*EDIT: HD21 American Independent Candidate was originally incorrectly referred to as a Democrat
House 21A: 71-26 Jensen (’22), 71-28 Trump (’20), 67-26 Trump (’16)
House 21A Rating: Safe R
House 21B: 67-33 Jensen (’22), 63-35 Trump (’20), 60-33 Trump (’16),
House 21B Rating: Safe R
District 22: This is a skinny district that runs northeast-southwest across south-central Minnesota, just missing Mankato on its west. Bjorn Olson is is safe for a 3rd term after winning his 2022 rematch against Marissa Ulmen. Brian Pfarr (R-22B) is retiring after just 2 terms in office, though as a retired Colonel in the Minnesota National Guard, he doesn’t need the full 5 years to get his state retirement. Terry Stier, a local cop will replace Pfarr in office after he defeats Sara Nett-Torgimson (DFL) in November.
House 22A: 63-34 Jensen (’22), 65-33 Trump (’20), 63-29 Trump (’16)
House 22A Rating: Safe R
House 22B: 62-34 Jensen (’22), 64-34 Trump (’20), 62-30 Trump (’16)
House 22B Rating: Safe R
District 23: Southern Minnesota, made up of Albert Lea (23A) and Austin (23B). GOP Representatives Peggy Bennet (23A) and Patricia Mueller (23B) are running for reelection. Bennet is safe against DFLer Joe Staloch, and Mueller is likely safe against DFLer Joseph Pacovsky.
House 23A: 59-38 Jensen (’22), 60-37 Trump (’20), 63-29 Trump (’16)
House 23A Rating: Safe R
House 23B: 50-46 Jensen (’22), 2-46 Trump (’20), 58-34 Trump (’16)
House 23B Rating: Likely R
District 24: Half Rochester (24B), half Dodge County (24A). The cartographers making this choice likely salvaged one of the two Republican-held Rochester Senate seats for the Red Team, at least for the early part of the decade. Rochester is growing at an alarming clip due to the Mayo Clinic becoming more and more powerful and drawing in major numbers of highly educated medical professionals, getting bluer and bigger every year. Trump won this Senate seat by 11 in 2016, but only 2 in 2020, and Jensen won it by 400 votes in 2022, and those trends show no signs of slowing let alone reversing. It’s also the tail of two polarized House seats, with 24A being well to the right of 25B. Republican Representative Duane Quam, a notoriously lazy campaigner won the 2020 redistricting lottery and found himself in a much more conservative seat than he had previously represented in more rural Olmsted County instead of Dodge County in 2022, and he is poised for another comfortable election this cycle against Mayo Clinic researcher Heather Holmes. On the flip side, the Rochester-based half of the seat that makes up 24B is home to long-time DFL Representative Tina Liebling, who sits in a comfy position in her bright blue district and will handily defeat her Republican challenger. Who that challenger will be will be settled in an August primary between Jesse O’Driscoll and Dan Sepeda.
House 24A: 58-39 Jensen (’22), 59-38 Trump (’20), 58-32 Trump (’16)
House 24A Rating: Safe R
House 24B: 58-40 Walz (’22), 57-41 Biden, 47-43 Clinton
House 24B Rating: Safe D
Districts 25: Northern Rochester, now shrunk way down into being almost entirely within Rochester proper now due to explosive growth. Kim Hicks had an easy freshman campaign in 2022 and will similarly have a shoo-in sophomore season against GOPer Ken Navitsky last seen losing 59-39 in 2022 against now-Senator Liz Boldon. Fellow DFL freshman Representative Andy Smith will also easily defeat his token GOP opponent Wes Lund for his second term in office.
House 25A: 57-41 Walz (’22), 57-41 Biden, 47-43 Clinton
House 25A Rating: Safe D
House 25B: 64-33 Walz (’22), 62-35 Biden, 53-36 Clinton
House 25B Rating: Safe D
Districts 26: SE Corner of the state. This is the home of Republican Senate Minority Leader Jeremy Miller. For the first time in many decades, there will be a shakeup in the Representatives in the SE corner of the state. Dem Gene Pelowski, realistically the last real conservative DFLer in the Legislature has served since 1986, and is hanging it up after 38 years in office. This is expected to be a marquis race for the cycle, as it’s a right-trending-but-still-blue rural seat. Moreover, both parties have primaries to determine who will run in November. The DFL has rallied behind Sarah Kruger, who lost to Jeremy Miller 58-52 in 2020. Kruger is the favorite, thought not prohibitively so against Dwayne Voegeli a Winona County Board Member. The winner of the Kruger/Voegeli primary will face the winner of the Republican primary between Pelowski’s 2022 opponent Stephen Doerr and Winona City Councilman Aaron Repinski. Repinski won the contentious GOP endorsement, but Doerr is moving forward with a primary anyways. As the endorsed candidate, Repinski seems to be the slight favorite. No matter which combination of candidates get through to November, this race will bring in a lot of money and be tight come November. With it being a Biden/Walz seat anchored by the college town of Winona, the DFL is better than 50/50 to hold the seat, but this race has a LONG way to go between now and election day. Greg Davids (R), who has served next to Pelowski for well over 30 years is running for reeleciton in the much more Republican 26B, but in perhaps the biggest surprise of the caucuses is that Davids actually LOST the GOP endorsement against a fringe-right insurgent candidate Gary Steuart. Davids is moving forward with the primary anyways, and should be considered the favorite, but running against an endorsed candidate, even one who has no political infrastructure ala Steuart is no sure-thing. Either Steuart or Davids will win in November. Against the winner of the DFL primary. The prohibitive favorite is marine veteran Allie Wolf. Wolf has the endorsement, and faces off against perennial minor party candidate Eric Leitzen who has run under the Green Party and Legal Marijuana Now Party banners in recent years.
House 26A: 51-46 Walz (’22), 52-46 Biden, 46-44 Clinton
House 26A Rating: Lean D
House 26B: 57-40 Jensen (’22), 59-39 Trump (’20), 56-36 Trump (’16)
House 26B Rating: Safe R
Districts 27: We now officially enter the metro on the northwest corner. Prior to 2022, the old metro seats started at 29, and the new ones start at 27, so in effect 2 full Senate seats moved from outstate to the metro due to population shifts in the 2020 census. This seat is in the northwest exurbs, primarily Sherburne County. State Representative Shane Mekeland (R-28A) will win against Dem Kathryn Geary. Former Republican House Leader Kurt Daudt resigned his 28B seat in February 2024 and was quickly replaced in a spring special election, which was won by Bryan Lawrence with an impressive 85-15 margin in this 68-29 Trump seat. Lawrence is running for for a full term against Andrew Scouten, a race which Lawrence will win handily.
House 27A: 67-29 Jensen (’22), 68-29 Trump (’20), 67-25 Trump (’16)
House 27A Rating: Safe R
House 27B: 68-28 Jensen (’22), 71-27 Trump (’20), 69-23 Trump (’16)
House 27B Rating: Safe R
District 28: Isanti (28A) and Chisago (28B) Counties on the northern edge of the Twin Cities metro. Brian Johnson (R-28A) has represented Isanti County since 2012, but is unlikely to continue that. In another surprise endorsement coup, Isanti Mayor Jimmy Gordon won 80% of the vote at the endorsement convention on the first ballot, dealing a crippling defeat to the incumbent. Johnson filed to run in the primary anyways, but he has to be considered a serious underdog in that race given the amount of support Gordon has moving into August. The winner of that primary will face DFLer Tim Dummer in November, and will be comfortably elected to the House in that race. Ann Neu Brindley (28B) is hanging it up after 7 years in office. Republicans settled on conservative activist Max Rymer to carry the red banner, and he will be elected the the House against DFL candidate Mary Murphy (not to be confused with former long-term Iron Range DFL State Representative of the same name).
House 28A: 63-32 Jensen (’22), 67-31 Trump (’20), 64-28 Trump (’16)
House 28A Rating: Safe R
House 28B: 60-37 Jensen (’22), 62-35 Trump (’20), 60-32 Trump (’16)
House 28B Rating: Safe R
District 29: The lion’s share of solidly Republican Wright County in the western exurbs, basically all of Wright County that isn’t part of the St. Michael-Albertville school district 29A Representative Joe McDonald (R) will win his rematch against Chris Brazelton (D) after winning 68-32 two years ago. Marrion Rarick, (nee O’Neill) married State Senator Jason Rarick (SD11) in 2023, and is running for reelection with her new last name to the seat she has represented since 2012, and unlike in 2022 she has a DFL opponent this cycle, though she will defeat Colton Kratky with little effort.
House 29A: 65-33 Jensen (’22), 65-32 Trump (’20), 62-28 Trump (’16)
House 29A Rating: Safe R
House 29B: 60-36 Jensen (’22), 62-35 Trump (’20), 61-31 Trump (’16)
House 29B Rating: Safe R
District 30: This seat takes in the edges of Wright, Sherburne and Anoka Counties, skirting the edge of Hennepin County, but not crossing Hennepin County (aside from the tiny split town of Hanover), with the lack of Hennepin County being key here. In the St. Michael-Albertville based 30A, freshman Rep Walter Hudson (R), shouldn’t have to worry much about his election against his 2022 Democratic opponent Sonja Buckmeier after winning the first round 63-37. In the Sherburne (and a little bit of Anoka) County based 30B, Paul Novotny (R) has an interesting DFL challenger, even if the race isn’t especially competitive. Paul Bolin, while an undergrad primaried then-State Senator Mary Kiffmeir in the Republican primary in 2012. Now, Bolin is now a medical doctor and running as a DFLer against Novotny. Bolin, like many educated professionals abandoned the Republican Party once it was overtaken by Trump his sycophants and is trying his hand at politics again. While a novel candidate, this seat is too Republican for Bolin to seriously contend against the incumbent Novotny.
House 30A: 60-36 Jensen (’22), 61-36 Trump (’20), 62-29 Trump (’16)
House 30A Rating: Safe R
House 30B: 60-37 Jensen (’22), 62-35 Trump (’20), 62-30 Trump (’16)
House 30B Rating: Safe R
District 31: This seat is based in northern Anoka County. In 31A, which now is nearly coterminous with the suburbs of Ramsey and Andover Republican freshman incumbent Harry Niska who should have little difficulty defeating his Dem challenger Dara Grimmer. In 31B Peggy Scott (R) is running for another term in her safely Republican Ham Lake and East Bethel based seat.against DFL challenger Gadisa Berkessa.
House 31A: 56-41 Jensen (’22), 57-40 Trump (’20), 58-34 Trump (’16)
House 31A Rating: Safe R
House 31B: 63-34 Jensen (’22), 65-33 Trump (’20), 63-20 Trump (’16)
House 31B Rating: Safe R
District 32: This is mostly Blaine in central Anoka County, with a highly-suspiciously drawn tendril into Columbus township that really can’t be explained by anything other than intentionally trying to make it more Republican. Nolan West (R-32A), a punk kid who got fired as a GOP staffer after, among other things, tweeting “It’s lynching time!” after Obama won reelection in 2012, has somehow managed to keep being elected by the skin of his teeth without any friends on Capitol Hill of either party, now that political violence and its associated rhetoric has been normalized among a certain segment of the electorate, Nolan has found his groove. He is also a heavy favorite against his 2022 opponent Ashton Ramsammy, who is not seen as a particularly strong candidate. This area continues to move leftward even with the weird tendril, along with most of suburbia, but 2024 isn’t the year it flips. In 32B, we have an incumbent in real danger following redistricting. Freshman DFLer Matt Morris (32B) flipped this left trending swing seat in 2022 faces off against a recent transplant to the suburbs. Alex Moe (R) relocated from Duluth to Blaine after getting waxed 72-28 by Senator Jen McEwen in SD-8 last cycle. Norris, in spite of being a freshman in a recently flipped seat is in great position for a second term as the trends are in his favor, and he drew a relatively weak opponent.
House 32A: 51-46 Jensen (’22), 52-45 Trump (’20), 53-39 Trump (’16)
House 32A Rating: Likely R
House 32B: 52-45 Walz (’22), 51-46 Biden, 47-44 Trump (’16)
House 32B Rating: Likely D
District 33: Northern Washington County which is Forest Lake (33A) and Stillwater (33B) and a few sporadic cities in towns in there for population. Patti Anderson, formerly known politically as Pat Anderson, and before that known as Pat Awada is an interesting incumbent. Patti Anderson, then using her then-husband’s name of Awada served as mayor of Eagan Minnesota (which clear is on the other side of town from here, in Dakota County), and actually won statewide election via plurality in Minnesota 22 years ago serving one term as Minnesota State Auditor, way back when Republicans were capable of such feats. Anderson had 3 failed political attempted comebacks in the 2 decades that followed, losing the State Auditor’s election in 2006, the GOP primary for Governor in 2010, and then in 2018 lost the 38B (based in White Bear Lake, in Ramsey County). Ultimately Anderson was able to claw her way back into elected office after wining her seat 55-45 last cycle. Her opponent this year is not seen as especially strong, so Anderson starts off as a solid favorite for a second term against Jake Ross. In the more Democratic Stillwater-based HD-33B, Josiah Hill (DFL) won his first term in 2022 and did not draw a serious challenger this cycle, with Republicans settling on Some Dude Jessica Johnson, so Hill is strongly favored in the general election.
House 33A: 51-47 Jensen (’22), 52-45 Trump (’20), 52-39 Trump (’16)
House 33A Rating: Likely R
House 33B: 54-43 Walz (’22), 53-45 Biden, 47-44 Clinton
House 33B Rating: Likely D
District 34: Northern edge of Hennepin County, with 34A being Champlain/Dayton/Rogers and 34B being Brooklyn Park and a single precinct across the river in Coon Rapids. 34A is moving left at a rapid clip, going from Johnson +18 in 2014, Trump+13 in 2016, Johnson+7 in 2018, Trump+3 in 2020, and finally hitting the inflection at the top of the ticket with Walz winning it by 22 votes in 2022. Republican Danny Nadeau (R) is only in her first term, but everyone including him knows his hardline social conservatism is not long for office in the area as it shifts left out from under him. Nadeau is facing off against his 2022 opponent Brian Raines, which was won by Nadeau 53-47, and the DFL is putting major resources to unseat him this cycle. As the incumbent, Nadeau starts off as the ever so slightest favorite in the rematch, but the odds of any Republican representing this seat at the end of the decade are roughly 0%. 34B is safely Democratic, and is represented by Speaker Melissa Hortman, who is seeking another term, and she will get it against her 2020/2022 opponent Scott Simmons where she will get another 60%+ of the vote against Simmons, completing the hattrick.
House 34A: 48.66-48.56 Walz (’22), 50-47 Trump (’20), 52-39 Trump (’16)
House 34A Rating: Lean R
House 34B: 63-34 Walz (’22), 62-35 Biden, 55-37 Clinton
House 34B Rating: Safe D
District 35: This is western Anoka County, with 35A being primarily the city of Anoka, and 35B being primarily the city of Coon Rapids. Zach Stephenson (D-35A) won one of the rare double incumbent elections due to redistricting in 2022 by 5%, and looks to have an easier race on his hands in 2024 against local Republican businessman Josh Jungling. In 2022 Senator Jerry Newton opted to drop down to the State House following redistricting, and he won, but is hanging it up after just 1 term back in the lower chamber. At 87 years old, it’s time for the long-term politico to hang it up. To succeed him Republicans have tapped Vietnam vet Steve Pape, and Democrats have tapped 2022 SD35 candidate Kari Rehrauer, who lost to incumbent Jim Abeler 50.2-49.7. Rehrauer’s performance was considered quite respectable, as Abeler had always been an overperformer, and should be considered the favorite against Pape in this Walz/Biden seat
House 35A: 51-44 Walz (’22), 51-47 Biden, 48-43 Trump (’16)
House 35A Rating: Likely D
House 35B: 50-46 Walz (’22), 51-46 Biden, 48-42 Trump (’16)
House35B Rating: Lean D
District 36: This is southeastern Anoka County and northeastern Ramsey County. 36A contains the eastern edge of Anoka County including Lino Lakes, Circle Pines and Centerville, as well as the northern edge of Ramsey County, including the famously insular and wealthy gated community of North Oaks. Politically 36B contains the St. Paul suburbs of Vadnais Heights and White Bear Lake in northern Ramsey County. 36A is very divided and marginal, with Elliott Engen (R) winning his first term 51-49 and is looking at another close election this cycle against DFLer Janelle Calhoun. Calhoun is well-funded and has strong backing, but lacks political experience. Engen, a neophyte in 2022 himself, now has 2 years of incumbency on his side and should be seen as a slight favorite for a second term. In the far bluer White Bear Lake half fellow freshman Brion Curran (D) is running for a second term. Curran got a DUI in 2023 and subsequently got a primary challenge from T.J. Malaskee. Curran is the favorite in the primary, but could potentially lose due to his DUI. Either man will easily win in November against Republican Patty Bradway.
House 36A: 50-47 Walz (’22), 50-48 Biden, 48-43 Trump (’16)
House 36A Rating: Lean R
House 36B: 57-40 Walz (’22), 57-40 Biden, 50-41 Clinton
House 36B Rating: Safe D
District 37: This is Maple Gove (37A & 37B), and the few remaining farm fields in western Hennepin County (37A). Maple Gove was not-so-long-ago the center of Republicanism in the state, but the rug has been pulled out from the GOP in this once-red bastion One of the only Republicans left in Hennepin County who has a better than coin-flip shot at victory this November is Representative Kristen Robbins in 37A, whose district includes the few remaining Republican precincts in the far western part of the county, and has not quite been fully drowned out by the Maple Grove portion of her district (though the trends to that direction is evident). Robbins draws psychology professor Laurie Wolfe. Robbinson defeated a similarly strong candidate in 2022 by a 56-44 margin, and is likely to repeat that margin against Wolfe. which is fully contained within Maple Grove, incumbent Kristen Bahner (D) is likely to win a 4th term against her 2022 opponent John Bristol (R), after defeating him 56-44 last cycle.
House 37A: 50-48 Jensen (’22), 50-48 Trump (’20), 52-39 Trump (’16)
House 37A Rating: Likely R
House 37B: 57-40 Walz (’22), 56-41 Biden, 47-44 Clinton
House 37B Rating: Likely D
District 38: Parts of Brooklyn Park (38A & 38B) and all of Brooklyn Center (38B), in dark blue suburban turf north of Minneapolis. There is a DFL primary for 38A with the retirement of 22-year incumbent Representative Michael Nelson. Huldah Hiltsley is a Nigerian-American businesswoman who actually had the DFL endorsement for SD38 in 2022, losing the primary to now-Senator Susan Pha that year. Running against Hiltsley is Liberian-American former Brooklyn Park City Councilman Wynfred Russell. Russell, in spite of being a veternal politico is not running a serious campaign, and Hindsley is going to win the primary and then the general election against token Republican Brad Olson. 3-term incumbent Samantha Vang (D-38B) will get another term against the winner of the Republican primary to take her on. Her 2022 opponent Robert Melvin has a primary against Chris Chubb. Vang will defeat either man easily.
House 38A: 66-30 Walz (’22), 68-30 Biden, 63-30 Clinton
House 38A Rating: Safe D
House 38B: 70-26 Walz (’22), 72-26 Biden, 66-26 Clinton
House 38B Rating: Safe D
District 39: This is the tiny southern tail of Anoka County: Spring Lake Park, Fridley make up 38A, while Columbia Heights, St. Anthony and a slice of New Brighton across the Ramsey County border for population make up 39B. Erin Koegel (D-39A) is getting a rematch against Republican Rob Sylvester, which Koegel won 63-37. Sandra Feist (D-39B) is serving her second term, and is safe for a 3rd term against another term in office after a formality election against Republican KT Jacobs, a member of the Columbia Heights City Council. Jacobs doesn’t have a shot, but has an interesting story. She apparently is incredibly vocally racist, has been censured and asked to step down from every other member of the city council due to her racist harassment of a then-candidate and now city council member about his ethnic background. She was about to be booted in a recall election by a landslide margin, but got a judge to put an injunction on the recall, sparing her for a term. If you want to see an absolute shitshow of a human, watch videos of KT Jacobs speaking. Cops and restraining orders were involved, a true political dumpster fire.
House 39A: 63-34 Walz (’22), 63-34 Biden, 55-36 Clinton
House 39A Rating: Safe D
House 39B: 70-26 Walz (’22), 71-27 Biden, 61-29 Clinton
House 39B Rating: Safe D
District 40: Northwestern Romsey County, 40A is primarily Moundsview & New Brighton, while 40B is primarily Shoreview & Roseville. Representative Kelly Moller (DFL) didn’t garner an opponent in 2024 and will be reelected unopposed in 40A for her 4th term. 40B Representative Jamie Becker-Finn (DFL) is retiring at age 41 after 4 terms in office. Expect her to make a comeback for higher office down the road, but not in 2024. Replacing Becker-Finn in office is going to be fellow DFLer Curtis Johnson, a Roseville School Board member. Johnson does have a nominal Republican opponent in Paul Wikstrom, who lost a 2023 election bid to the Moundsview School Board.
House 40A: 62-35 Walz (’22), 61-36 Biden, 52-38 Clinton
House 40A Rating: Safe D
House 40B: 68-29 Walz (’22), 67-30 Biden, 59-31 Clinton
House 40B Rating: Safe D
District 41: Southeastern Washington County along the border with Wisconsin, with crossing the Dakota County border to take in Hastings. This is kind of the random parts left over of Washington County after the cities like Maplewood Stillwater and Forest Lake are all kept whole in other seats. Like many suburbs, it has trended from being a light red area a decade ago, to a light blue one now, going from Trump+4 in 2016, to Biden+2 four years later, to Walz+4 last cycle. This area was home to some of the tightest races in the state last year with neither House nor Senate seat being wider than 51-49 races, with Republicans winning both House seats, and Democrats winning the Senate seat, thanks in party to the Republicans nominating a fright right Trumpist candidate in the then-open Senate seat. Expect this area to be every bit as competitive this year as it was last cycle. In the northern half (41A), freshman Republican Mark Wiens wasn’t interested in flipping a coin a second time in his purple and bluing suburban seat after entering office with a margin of 128 votes last election, and is instead running for Washington County Commissioner. This leaves an open seat in one of the closest divided districts in the state, so both parties are pulling out all the stops to win it. The DFL is choosing to run up the middle, with retired police officer and current Afton City Councilwoman Lucia Wroblewski. Republicans have a primary on their hands after the endorsement chose a wholly unelectable fringe candidate Grayson McNew, who was Erik Mortenson’s Chief of Staff after Mortenson was booted from the Republican caucus in 2021 with his extremist views and general belligerence. McNew was the only person who was willing to work with Mortenson after that point, and is every bit as “out there” as his former boss. Republicans are trying to salvage this seat by the more mainstream Republican Wayne Jonson moving forward with the primary, with support of basically every GOP politico in the area other than the official endorsement. Johnson is a seasoned politician, having served both on the Afton City Council and as Washington County Commissioner. If Johnson wins the primary, which a coin-flip proposition at this point, he becomes the slight favorite in November given his political chops and Republicans holding the seat. However, if McNew wins the primary, this goes to Likely D, at minimum. Pending the primary, this starts off a Lean D race, which will change following the August primary based on who wins. The other freshman incumbent Representative, Shane Hudella (R-41B) choosing to retire after just 1 term, without running for another term. Running in his place is Tom Dippel, the Republican nominee who narrowly lost the 2022 SD41 election to Judy Seeberger by 321 votes. While Dippel narrowly lost the Senate seat, he narrowly carried 41B in that race by 75 votes. The DFL is also seriously contesting this seat with Hastings City Councilwoman Jen Fox. Expect this race to be close, and if this list contained Toss-up ratings, this would be a Toss-up, but since that’s the coward’s way of calling races, this race starts out as Lean R, given Dippel has proven he is capable of getting 50.1% in this district from his 2022 Senate race.
House 41A: 51-46 Walz (’22), 51-47 Biden, 48-44 Trump (’16)
House 41A Rating: Lean D (flip)
House 41B: 50-47 Walz (’22), 49-48 Biden, 48-43 Trump (’16)
House 41B Rating: Lean R
District 42: This is Plymouth, except for 2 precincts in the southeastern corner of the district. 42A is western Plymouth, and 42B is eastern Plymouth. Freshman Ned Carroll will win the 42A and 4-term Represntative Ginny Klevorn, both DFLers are safe for new terms. Carroll has a rematch against Kathy Burkett in a 2022 rematch, where Carroll prevailed 58-42 in then-open seat. Klevorn also has a familiar opponent, the man she defeated 60-40 in 2020: Perry Nouis.
House 42A: 61-37 Walz (‘22), 61-37 Biden, 52-39 Clinton
House 42A Rating: Safe D
House 42B: 63-35 Walz (’22), 63-35 Biden, 54-37 Clinton
House 42B Rating: Safe D
District 43: New Hope & Crystal (43A), and Golden Valley & Robinsdale (43B) in central Hennepin County, just west of Minneapolis proper. Much like 2022 the incumbent House Democrats Cedrick Frazier in 43A, and Mike Freiberg in 43B are safe for reelection. Unlike in 2022, they both actually have opponents this year. Frazier drew local GOP official Todd Hesemann, white Frieberg drew his 2018 opponent, where Frieberg prevailed 72-27, expect a similar result in the rematch.
House 43A: 68-29 Walz (’22), 66-31 Biden, 58-32 Clinton
House 43A Rating: Safe D
House 43B: 75-22 Walz (’22), 73-24 Biden, 66-26 Clinton
House 43B Rating: Safe D
District 44: East central Ramsey County just north of St. Paul plus a sliver of western Washington County, with Little Canada most of Maplewood making up 44A, while Oakdale makes up most of 44B. FWIW, if there was an award for horrifically gerrymandered city borders in Minnesota, Maplewood is one of 3 possible candidates, the other 2 being St. Cloud, and the abomination that is the Crystal-New Hope border. This is a pretty boring area this cycle with long-term incumbent DFLers Peter Fischer (44A) and Leon Lillie (44B) set to cruise to reelection against Republican candidates. Fischer faces Christian activist Karla Nelson (Not to be confused with Republican Rochester area State Senator Carla Nelson). Lillie faces off against perennial candidate Bill Dahn, who has done everything from running 3rd party campaigns, write-in campaigns, primarying Republicans, and most recently primarying DFL Attorney General Keith Ellison in 2022. Neither race will be close.
House 44A: 62-34 Walz (’22), 63-35 Biden, 62-34 Walz, 57-35 Clinton
House 44A Rating: Safe D
House 44B: 58-38 Walz (’22), 58-40 Biden, 51-40 Clinton
House 44B Rating: Safe D
District 45: This is essentially the city of Minnetonka (45B) and Lake Minnetonka (45A). This district is INSANELY wealthy. We have a rare State Senate election in this seat, as Kelly Morrison resigned her seat following the 2024 legislative session in advance of her being elected to Congress replacing Dean Phillips in MN-3 who left his Congressional seat vacant to pursue a feckless primary to President Joe Biden. During redistricting, this general area got changed quite a bit with population growth in Hennepin County. Former State Senator Ann Stewart-Johnson lost the endorsement to Morrison in 2022 and abided by the endorsement. With Morrison leaving the Senate behind, Stewart-Johnson is looking to return to St. Paul in the special election to replace Morrison, which will be held at the same time as the 2024 GE. The DFL primary will determine the next Senator, as it’s outside the range of competitiveness. I addition to Johnson-Stewart, local businesswoman Emily Reitan is running a serious campaign. There’s a Some Dude level candidate Karl Meinin has filed, but will be a non-factor in the primary. Johnson-Stewart is the favorite, but Reitan is running a real campaign and will get a large chunk of the vote. There’s no discernable difference in ideology between these two generic liberal candidates, so functionally it’s a personality vs personality choice. Whichever woman wins the DFL primary will face off against Republican Kathleen Fowke, who lost to Morrison 56-44 last cycle. 45A, a full 30 points to the right of 45B, has first term Republican Andrew Myers running for his first reelection. Myers came to office winning 53-47 against a well funded challenger in 2022, a surprisingly large number. The DFL isn’t ceding the seat, running Minnetonka Beach City Councilwoman Tracey Breazeale. But given how well Myers ran last cycle, he is definitely the favorite for a second term. 45B doesn’t have a race, as incumbent Patty Acomb (D) didn’t draw a Republican opponent this cycle.
House 45A: 49-48 Walz (’22), 49-48 Biden, 49-42 Trump (’16)
House 45A Rating: Likely R
House 45B: 64-34 Walz (’22), 64-34 Biden, 56-36 Clinton
House 45B Rating: Safe D
Senate 45 Rating: Safe D
District 46: The epicenter of left-wing Hennepin County suburbia, with St. Louis Park (45A), Hopkins and half of Edina (45B) making up the entirety of this seat. Last cycle, none of the DFL incumbents faced a Republican in November, while this year both Democratic House incumbents will be facing off against opponents in November. Larry Kraft (D-46A) and Cheryl Youakim (D-46B) drew token Republican opponents in John Nagel and Kim Rich respectively.
House 46A: 77-21 Walz (’22), 76-22 Biden, 69-22 Clinton
House 46B Rating: Safe D
House 46B: 70-27 Walz (’22), 71-27 Biden, 62-29 Clinton
House 46B Rating: Safe D
District 47: This is essentially Woodbury in southwest Washington County. This is home to the now- infamous Nicole Mitchell, who has not resigned as of writing this, but this could absolutely become open should she bend to the political pressure from essentially everyone to have her resign following her breaking into her late father’s home to steal his ashes in a well-publicized scandal. In 47A, freshman Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger (D) drew only Some Dude level Republican opponent Teresa Whitson. Fellow DFL freshman Ethan Cha is also running for a second term in 47B. Running against Cha is the man that Mitchell defeated in the Senate race last cycle, Dwight Dorau. With Cha being the incumbent, and Dorau losing this area 56-44 in his 2022 campaign, Cha is a strong, if not quite prohibitive favorite for reelection.
House 47A: 62-35 Walz (’22), 62-36 Biden, 54-37 Clinton
House 47A Rating: Safe D
House 47B: 58-40 Walz (’22), 58-40 Biden, 50-42 Clinton
House 47B Rating: Likely D
District 48: This district takes up the lion’s share of Carver County. Dems seem this as fertile ground moving foward after having punted on everything involving Carver County for the last century or so. First blood was drawn last cycle with DFLer Lucile Rehm winning a House seat in Carver County for the first time in over a century. In the far more conservative half, incumbent Jim Nash (R) is in for a comfortable reelection in 48A against Cologne (pop 2075) City Councilman Nathan Kells in a rematch, with the first round won by Nash 60-40. The aforementioned Lucile Rehm is running for her first reelection after unseating long term incumbent Greg Boe (R) last time. Republicans settled on local teacher Caleb Steffanhagen, who is nowhere near the caliber of candidate that Boe was, so this race isn’t expected to be especially close, though not off the table entirely.
House 48A: 53-44 Jensen (’22), 53-44 Trump (’20), 54-36 Trump (’16)
House 48A Rating: Safe R
House 48B: 54-44 Walz (’22), 54-43 Biden, 46-45 Clinton
House 48B Rating: Likely D
District 49: Just across the Carver County boarder from 48, this is a compact seat in southwestern Hennepin County, taking in all of Eden Prairie and southern Minnetonka. Once Republican turf and home to former Congressman Erik Paulsen, those days seem like a distant memory at this point. Laurie Pryor (D-49A) is hanging it up after 4 terms in office. There is a DFL contentious primary to replace Pryor. The DFL endorsement convention was hotly contested, with DFL political operative Alex Falconer beating out Minnetonka City Councilwoman Kissy Coakley. Coakley is definitely running to the left of the mainstream liberal Falconer, and the August primary is expected to be close. Either candidate is a sure bet in November though, as Republican Stacy Bettison is not a serious candidate. In 49B DFL incumbent Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn will win against Republican Wendy Rysso.
House 49A: 64-33 Walz (’22), 64-34 Biden, 55-36 Clinton
House 49A Rating: Safe D
House 49B: 62-36 Walz (’22), 61-36 Biden, 52-39 Clinton
House 49B Rating: Safe D
District 50: This is western Bloomington (50B) and the half of Edina not in SD46 (50A). 50A is vacant, with Heather Edelson winning a seat as Hennepin County Commissioner in the spring. Both parties are running Edina School Board members, interestingly. The DFL is running Julia Greene, while Republicans are running Owen Michaelson. While the school board is officially nonpartisan on the ballot, the State Legislature is not, so Greene is going to win the promotion handily by virtually of having the D next to her name. Steve Ekins (D-50B) survived a member-vs-member primary in 2022, so his 2024 reelection is a lot smoother sailing for him with only a formality election against Republican attorney Bob Gust on the horizon.
House 50A: 68-30 Walz (’22), 69-30 Biden, 61-31 Clinton
House 50A Rating: Safe D
House 50B: 64-34 Walz (’22), 64-34 Biden, 55-36 Clinton
House 50B Rating: Safe D
District 51: Richfield (51A) and eastern Bloomington (51B). Representative Mike Howard (D) will get a 4th term after he defeats Jeffrey Thompson (R) in 51A. Nathan Coulter (D-51B) will cruise to a second term St. Paul after he defeats Republican Lion Johnson (a person, not the Warhammer character).
House 51A: 74-23 Walz (’22), 73-24 Biden, 66-25 Clinton
House 51A Rating: Safe D
House 51B: 63-33 Walz (’22), 64-34 Biden, 56-35 Clinton
House 51B Rating: Safe D
District 52: This is essentially Eagan and the smaller Mendota Heights in northern Dakota County. Liz Reyer (D-52B survived a member-vs.-member primary in 2022, and has a much cleaner reelection bid ahead of her this year against former State Representative Diane Anderson (R), a 2010 wave baby who was immediately swept out 56-44 in 2012. Biana Ward Virnig (D-52B) won a special election following the vacancy when Ruth Ann Richardson (D) resigned in late 2023. She will win a full term against Republican Douglas Willets, who has run and lost for a variety of offices across the south metro over the last decade.
House 52A: 63-35 Walz (’22), 62-35 Biden, 53-37 Clinton
House 52A Rating: Safe D
House 52B: 64-34 Walz (’22), 63-34 Biden, 54-36 Clinton
House 52B Rating: Safe D
District 53: Directly to the east of 52 lies 53, which contains the most of the rest of northern Dakota County including Inver Grove Heights and South St. Paul (a suburb, not a neighborhood of St. Paul). In 53A, freshman Mary Frances Clardy (D) has a clear path to reelection after she wins against Republican Nathan Herschbach. Far from a freshman, Rick Hanson has been in office for 20 years and is going to be elected to an 11th term in November against losing 2023 school board candidate Aaron Brooksby (R).
House 53A: 59-39 Walz (’22), 59-39 Biden, 52-40 Clinton
House 53A Rating: Safe D
House 53B: 57-39 Walz (’22), 56-41 Biden, 49-41 Clinton
House 53B Rating: Safe D
District 54: This is most of Scott County, with Shakopee anchoring 54A and Prior Lake anchoring 54B. 54A was the source of some of the juiciest drama in Minnesota poilitics over the last few cycles between Bob Loonan (R), Erik Mortenson (R) and Rep Brad Tabke, which for better or worse is not going to continue in 2024 as Loonan and Mortenson both declined to run against the incumbent Tabke, which drops the interest in this seat to near zero. Aaron Paul, a local cop not to be confused with the Breaking Bad actor of the same name is the candidate against Tabke instead. Few suburbs have shifted so definitively from Republican to Democratic in the Trump era than Shakopee, which Trump won by 3 in 2016 to being won by Biden and Walz by 8 and 9 respectively. 54B is 20 points to the right of 54A, and is thus far more boring with freshman Bakeberg (R) going to easily get a second term when he defeats DFLer Jean Lee.
House 54A: 53-44 Walz (’22), 53-45 Biden, 50-45 Walz, 47-44 Trump (’16)
House 54A Rating: Likely D
House 54B: 54-43 Jensen (’22), 55-43 Trump (’20), 56-35 Trump (’16)
House 54B Rating: Safe R
District 55: Next door to 54 in Savage (55A) and Burnsville (55B), along the western edge of Dakota County. Sophomore DFL State Rep Jess Hanson won a rather pedestrian 2022 campaign against Gabriela Kroetch (R), and Kroetch is seeking a rematch. Handson won 53-47, so this race is definitely on the radar, but it’s hard to see a suburban Walz/Biden double-digits seat flipping. Fellow sophomore DFLer Kaela Berg (55B) is also getting a rematch for a 3rd term, but Van Holston is not going to be a serious challenge to her reelection prospects on the heals of a 58-42 loss last cycle.
House 55A: 54-43 Walz (’22), 55-43 Biden, 47-44 Clinton
House 55B Rating: Lean D
House 55B: 59-38 Walz (’22), 60-38 Biden, 51-40 Clinton
House 55B Rating: Safe D
District 56: Apple Valley (56A and 56B) and Rosemount (56B) in central Dakota County. Dems have incumbents in both house seats, and Robert Bierman and John Huot have clear paths to reelection against Republicans Angela Zorn, a local housewife, and Angeline Anderson, an actress best known for her role on Manny in Real Life, respectively.
House 56A: 61-37 Walz (’22), 60-37 Biden, 51-40 Clinton
House 56A Rating: Safe D
House 56B: 57-41 Walz (’22), 56-42 Biden, 48-43 Clinton
House 56B Rating: Safe D
District 57: This is Lakeville (57A, 57B) and rural eastern Scott County (57A). Representative Jon Koznick (R-57A) is poised for another blowout election, this time aganst against DFL teacher Veda Kanitz. HD57B is entirely within the city of Lakeville, quite marginal and moving leftwards. Freshman Jeff Witte (R) won his first election 52-48, and is looking at another tough campaign this cycle against local engineer Brian Cohn. Slight initial edge to incumbency, but this is going to be a tight race.
House 57A: 57-41 Jensen (’22), 57-41 Trump (’20), 58-35 Trump (’16)
House 57A Rating: Safe R
House 57B: 50-47 Walz (’22), 50-48 Biden, 51-40 Trump (’16)
House 57B Rating: Lean R
District 58: This is a super awkward “new” district following the 2020 census, including uber-liberal Northfield and the rest of northern Rice County (58A), and Farmington plus the rest of rural southern Dakota County. 58A is immovable in its politics due to the vast polarization, with Northfield voting as a bloc for Dems, and that being enough to overcome the rest of the district, but that means the margin rarely moves from a mid-to-high-single-digit Dem win. Kristi Pursell is in her first term as the DFL Representative in 58A, and is running against Republican accountant Rita Hillmann Olson. Pursell is a strong favorite for a second term, but given the expected margin, this can’t quite be considered Safe D out of the gate. In 58B, incumbent Pat Garafalo resigned following the 2024 legislative session, which was preceded by him announcing his intention to not seek reelection anyways, which leaves 58B technically open. Republican Drew Roach won the endorsement by basically making his entire campaign about Trumpiest of Trumpists, with Trump being the embodiment of perfection, which was enough to win the endorsement over the more mainstream Sean McKnight. McKnight is abiding by the endorsement, which gives Roach a certain seat in the House following a formality November election against DFL Army veteran / nurse Ian English.
House 58A: 54-43 Walz (’22), 52-46 Biden, 48-44 Clinton
House 58A Rating: Likely D
House 58B:56-41 Jensen (’22), 57-41 Trump (’20), 57-34 Trump (’16)
House 58B Rating: Safe R
Districts 59-63: These seats are all Minneapolis, and all are going to go 80-20 DFL+.
District 59: North Minneapolis. Representatives Fue Lee (59A) is unopposed, while Esther Agbaje (59B) faces Republican Kenneth Smoron.
District 60: Northeast and Southeast Minneapolis, essentially all of Minneapolis that is east of the Mississippi River. Sydney Jordan (60A) faces Mary Holmberg. Representative Mohamud Noor (60B) faces Republican Abigail Wolters.
District 61: This is southwest Minneapolis, including the chain of lakes, by far the richest part of Minneapolis. Frank Hornstein is retiring after 22 years in office in 61A. There is a highly contested primary to succeed him. All of the candidates are definitely on the left flank, and it’s more about style than policy. All of the candidates have significant support, and there is no endorsement in play. Katie Jones, an engineer has the support of Keith Ellison. Isabel Rolfes a legislative staffer has the support of quite a few state legislators ranging from center-left to far-left. Will Stancil is a local civil rights lawyer, and he doesn’t have AS many endorsements, but quite a few retired politicians and legal figures. Rolfes is the favorite, but Jones is a strong candidate in her own right, while Stancil won’t win but could pull a significant chunk of the vote. Whoever wins the primary wins the general election, as Republicans have not put up a candidate in this open seat. Jamie Long (61B) faces Bob Carney Jr.
District 62: Southern downtown, and all of uptown Minneapolis: Hipster central and the most liberal place in the entire state with Tim Walz winning 89-7 in 2022. Aisha Gomez (62A) faces Alexandra Hoffman Novick. 62B incumbent Hodan Hassan is retiring after she served 6 years in the legislature. The DFL field was settled in the endorsement convention, so there will be no primary. Anquam Mahamoud a Somalian immigrant and now is a healthcare executive in Minneapolis. She will be elected against Republican Bob Sullentrop in November.
District 63: South Minneapolis. Samantha Sencer-Mura (63A) is unopposed. Emma Greenman (63B) faces Diane Napper
Districts 64-67: These seats are all St. Paul, and all are going to go 75-25 DFL+.
District 64: Highland Park and Snelling Hamline in southern St. Paul. Kaohly Vang Her (64A) faces Dan Walsh. Dave Pinto faces Peter Donahue.
District 65: Downtown and the small portion of St. Paul south of the Mississippi River, which is rather confusingly called “West Side” St. Paul, which should not be confused with the suburb of West St. Paul, which even more confusingly borders West Side. Samakab Hussein (65A) is unopposed. Maria Isa Perez-Vega (65B) faces Mike Hilborn.
District 66: Northern St. Paul. Not to be confused with North St. Paul, which is a suburb. Leigh Finke (66A) faces Fadil Jama. Athena Hollins (66B) faces Greg Copeland.
District 67: Eastside St. Paul. Liz Lee (67A) faces Scott Hesselgrave. Jax Xiong (67B) faces with winner of the GOP primary, either Sharon Anderson or AJ Plehal
Hope this was informative. I’ll be doing a ratings diary in the next iteration after the primaries.