I'll just get right to it…
1. It is July
If the election were being held right now, I'd be very nervous. I still don't think it would be a landslide Trump victory, but if this was November, I'd say there would be a strong chance Trump could win.
But it's not November. It is the middle of summer.
The debate and the Trump rally shooting happened only a few weeks apart. Dozens of other events can and probably will happen before November.
Would you rather Trump surge now, or in the fall? Would you rather Biden have hard times now, or in the fall?
They call it a Presidencial RACE for a reason. You can start out in the lead but end in last place.
Timing is everything. Political attitude is not static. It is always changing. It comes in waves.
I don't know what will happen between now and election day and neither does anyone else.
The Gaza War could end. Inflation and interest rates could plummet even further. A billion other things that we could never predict could happen.
It is summer. Most people aren't as politically aware as we on DailyKos are. They have options. They catch the big headlines. But they aren't in politics mode yet.
Long story short, it is too early to freak out over every obstacle.
There is plenty of time and again, timing is everything. As Kos himself has stated, news doesn't last long these days. The Trump rally shooting already feels like ancient history. It was less than a week ago. The Biden debate debacle would be long forgotten if some Democrats would let it be forgotten. The public is not as obsessed with it as they are.
If polling is suggesting that Democrats are still concerned about it, it's because the dump Biden brigade won't let them forget about it.
And speaking of polling…
2. Polling
Polls have been underestimating Democrats since 2018.
They were wrong about Trump in 2016 and have overcorrected too far the other way.
Remember the Red Wave of 2022?
Me neither…
I have not seen one poll that has shown a Trump landslide, or even a large win.
Almost all polling is showing a super close race, many with Biden in a very slight lead.
I'm not sure where the dump Biden brigade are seeing numbers that justify making the greatest political mistake in history by dropping Biden.
And what Presidential election hasn't been close in polling?
Polls never shown Obama winning by 20 points, or even 10. Polls have always been close. Presidential elections are always close because we are a divided nation and most of our minds are made up already. There is not much wiggle room.
Do you think Kamala, Newsome, even Michelle Obama would have a 10 point lead on Trump in the polls right now to make you sleep better at night? Not a chance.
I've been following politcs for some time, and there has never, ever been a Presidential election that hasn't made me nervous or where one candidate was running away with it via polling.
It's easy to look back and think Obama comfortably rode to victory. This was not the case.
They have all been close and they all will be close.
Show me a poll that shows Biden getting creamed in a landslide against Trump...I'll wait.
And keep in mind that polls are still tight even after he rough few weeks that Bide has had. Listen to some worried dems and you would think Biden is 20 points down.
We could resurrect FDR and JFK, but them on a ticket together, and guess what…
It would still be close.
There is no safe haven. There is no sure thing.
We have to get our shit together as a party, do the work, and VOTE.
It's the only way.
3. This isn't 2016
One thing that I think gets overlooked a lot is that no one thought Trump could actually be elected President in 2016.
This is huge.
We were told over and over that Hillary had it in the bag. The polling said the same. We got cocky.
How many Democrats didn't vote because they were told by very reputable sources that Hillary is going to win in a landslide. That Trump did not have a path to victory. That it was a joke.
We know better now.
We knew better in 2020.
We know now that Trump could win again.
This is everything.
Please don't underestimate the anti-Trump vote. Since 2016, Trump and the GOP have hardly won anything. Now that the public is all too aware that this can actually happen.
----
Republicans are 100% fully committed to a 34 time convicted felon and rapist. Not one is calling for him to drop out.
Biden had a bad debate 3 weeks ago, and has been great ever since. This is not a repeat pattern.
Have you never had a bad day?
Biden is going to win in November... but only if we can toughen up, not let every little thing scare us stupid, and have a little faith.
Biden is going to win if we will get out of the way and let him win.