The conventional wisdom is that the Democratic prospects for the U.S. Senate in 2024 are unrelentingly bleak. And on paper, this assumption is hard to deny.
After all, Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents are defending 23 of the 34 seats up this cycle. And the 11 GOP-controlled seats are all located in states that Donald Trump carried in 2020, while Joe Biden came within single-digit margins in only two of them. Democrats were also sure to lose West Virginia even before Sen. Joe Manchin announced his retirement in November. Even worse, Democrats face a tough task holding two states that Trump decisively carried, Montana and Ohio.
However, before losing all hope, bear this in mind: There is a very real chance that the Democrats could hold their losses to a single seat, meaning that control of the chamber would depend on the outcome of the presidential race. And there is a nonzero chance the Democrats could hold serve.
In this preview of the 2024 battle for the U.S. Senate, we’ll look at the seven races most likely to determine control of the chamber. We'll also dive into some long-shot prospects for both parties before finishing by looking at the balance of the field and pointing out a handful of races that hold some intrigue even if they're unlikely to flip.
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