Another day of early voting — and it’s another doozy. Texas is voting, and we have counties that are over 10% of the total registered voters in the county already having cast their ballots. That’s only a good sign.
All of these numbers are pulled either from the county site (preference) or TX has set up a state-wide tracker. Where the numbers didn’t agree, I used county numbers. Of course, all of these are unofficial, and include limited and provisional ballots. They’re simply not going to be exact, but it’s a solid estimate.
So, without further ado, into the charts!
TX Early Vote - 14 Oct
County |
13 oct in person |
13oct mail |
14 oct in person |
14 oct mail |
total |
2016 total |
2018 total |
harris |
128,186 |
41,337 |
114,996 |
3,012 |
287,531 |
954k |
767k |
dallas |
59,905 |
33,048 |
57,479 |
1,843 |
152,275 |
542k |
494k |
tarrant |
42,351 |
32,108 |
44,996 |
457 |
119,912 |
508k |
434k |
bexar |
33,111 |
45,382 |
36,892 |
4,537 |
119,912 |
466k |
380k |
travis |
35,873 |
22,577 |
38,150 |
466 |
97,066 |
364k |
349k |
collin |
39,372 |
5,326 |
37,844 |
1,357 |
83,899 |
298k |
271k |
denton |
35,944 |
13,953 |
33,842 |
933 |
84,672 |
244k |
218k |
hidalgo |
18,805 |
6,169 |
16,389 |
1,568 |
42,931 |
138k |
108k |
el paso |
19,069 |
15,051 |
17,268 |
1,654 |
53,042 |
146k |
130k |
ft bend |
12,843 |
7,152 |
18,652 |
702 |
39,349 |
212k |
187k |
montgomery |
10,383 |
10,491 |
11,784 |
892 |
33,550 |
155k |
125k |
williamson |
22,707 |
10,377 |
21,951 |
890 |
55,925 |
160k |
153k |
cameron |
10,985 |
4,048 |
8,634 |
920 |
24,587 |
63k |
51k |
brazoria |
13,203 |
6,062 |
12,584 |
328 |
32,177 |
99k |
83k |
bell |
3,586 |
2,511 |
4,346 |
1,813 |
12,256 |
67k |
54k |
nueces |
9,940 |
7,024 |
9,103 |
1,305 |
27,372 |
74k |
61k |
totals |
759k |
|
506k |
|
1.26M |
4.3M |
3.75M |
Analysis of the numbers
On day 1, we had almost 760k votes cast. A significant portion of that (and your biggest visible drop-off) was mail-in votes. That’s because votes already received were tracked on 13 Oct — or were stated as received prior to 13 Oct, and I tracked them there. Once you’re on the list for a mail-in, you keep getting them. Therefore, all the folks who got the ballots right after printing and knew who they were voting for could have (and many did) mail them back immediately.
However, media was reporting over 1M votes cast on Mon. Therefore, I can extrapolate that we’ve had, statewide, somewhere approaching 2M votes cast by the end of yesterday — probably closer to 1.7 or 1.8M. That’s an excellent sign with 16 days of early voting to go, especially when you consider we’re already at about a third of the total early votes cast in 2018, and over a quarter of early votes cast in 2016.
Once again, my estimate is that we’ll need to see around 6-7M votes cast early in these counties to reach the 10M votes we need to turn TX blue. I’d rather see 7M+, but at 6-7M early, you’re looking at a likely record turnout for TX.
Other factors: In 2016, we had 9.3M votes cast, and Clinton lost by 9%. That was about 800k votes. In 2018, we had 8.4M votes cast, and lost the Senate seat by 220k votes.
Since 2016, we’ve added 1.5M registered voters. That puts us in a really good position to have a shot at the presidency, especially with the shifting patterns in the suburbs and senior populations!
*Note: I didn’t have El Paso’s mail-in vote as of writing this. My guess is that it won’t change the numbers more than about a thousand. EDIT: Numbers came in, and the chart’s updated!
Talk to me about counties
Per request from last week, I’ve gone ahead and broken down the areas of TX, and put in what counties are in those areas!
Austin: Travis County. Williamson County (N suburbs)
Corpus Christi: Nueces County.
Dallas/Fort Worth: Dallas/Tarrant Counties. Collin (NE suburbs) and Denton (N suburbs)
El Paso: El Paso County.
Houston: Harris County. Brazoria (S suburbs), Ft Bend (SW suburbs) and Montgomery (N suburbs)
San Antonio: Bexar County.
Temple: Bell County.
South Tip: Cameron, Hidalgo County.
Again, these counties make up 70-80% of TX’s total population, and 80%+ of its total vote. In previous years, early voting made up 55-60% of the total vote of TX. What it’ll be this year is anyone’s guess, but the TX Democratic Party has made a much larger effort to get its voters out early, while the mail-in vote historically skewed GOP due to very narrow and stringent requirements to be able to cast a mail-in ballot.
Final Notes
We are well on our way to hit 7M early votes, though early voting does tend to drop off (only to have a rally on the last day). For this election, who knows. Early voting is 3 weeks instead of 2, and the pandemic has thrown everything for a loop. All I can say is that NOW is when we need a full-court press.
Last polls gave Dems the lead in 11 of the State House races we need to take control — and we only need 9. M.J. Hegar needs all the coattails she can get to have a chance at kicking the odious Cornyn to the curb, and if we can get an outsized turnout, the TX State Senate might even be in reach on a ‘stretch’ goal!
More than that — if we can turn TX blue, that’s going to put the fear of God into the GOP that assumed 2018 was just because Cruz is...well, Cruz. Plus, if we start winning these seats at local levels as well as up top, that’s going to energize previously demoralized voters. ALL of that will make the more subtle voter suppression through gerrymandering and barriers to voting (poll lines, etc) much less effective because people will see their votes matter. Additionally, voting is a civic habit. Once you start, it’s hard to stop.
In short, we can do it!