In other installments of the gavels series, I’ve generally introduced the candidate. Unlike, most Democrats running in red states, Beto doesn’t need an introduction. His campaign has been in the news for months. He has tens of thousands of volunteers working to get him elected. I’ve been volunteering for Beto for well over six months.
And all that help is absolutely required, because Texas is a big state. Sometimes we forget how big it is.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton got 3,877,868 votes in Texas. There were only three states where more votes were cast for the Democrat (CA, NY, FL). 6% of all voters who cast a ballot for Hillary Clinton in 2016 live in Texas.
That’s another way of saying there are a lot of Democrats in Texas. Beto can win, handily, if they show up on November 6,
Slowly, but surely, Texas has been getting better for Democrats. Hillary Clinton performed better, in terms of margin and overall votes than Obama, or any Democrat running for president in the past two decades.
|
2016 |
2012 |
2008 |
2004 |
2000 |
Dem |
3,877,868 |
3,308,124 |
3,528,633 |
2,832,704 |
2,433,746 |
REP |
4,685,047 |
4,569,843 |
4,479,328 |
4,526,917 |
3,799,639 |
Turnout |
8,969,226 |
7,993,851 |
8,077,795 |
7,410,765 |
6,407,637 |
Deficit |
-807,179 |
-1,261,719 |
-950,695 |
-1,694,213 |
-1,365,893 |
Turnout |
-9.00% |
-15.78% |
-11.77% |
-22.86% |
-21.32% |
When we look at Senate results, the trend is more mixed. Democrats tend to lose Senate elections by 10-15% in presidential years. That margin balloons to 25% in mid-terms. The outlier is 2002. That was the year Ron Kirk (former Mayor of Dallas and former Texas Secretary of State) ran against John Cornyn for Phil Gramm’s open seat. That was the closest Texas Senate race in recent years. Kirk was an immensely popular mayor of Dallas and his candidacy helped drive African American turnout in a mid-term.
|
2014 |
2012 |
2008 |
2006 |
2002 |
2000 |
Dem |
1,594,252 |
3,194,927 |
3,389,365 |
1,555,202 |
1,955,758 |
2,025,024 |
REP |
2,855,068 |
4,440,137 |
4,337,469 |
2,661,789 |
2,496,243 |
4,078,954 |
Turnout |
4,638,552 |
7,864,822 |
7,912,075 |
4,314,663 |
4,514,012 |
6,267,964 |
Deficit |
-1,260,816 |
-1,245,210 |
-948,104 |
-1,106,587 |
-540,485 |
-2,053,930 |
Turnout |
-27.18% |
-15.83% |
-11.98% |
-25.65% |
-11.97% |
-32.77% |
The current 538 forecast says Beto O’Rourke is behind Ted Cruz by 5%. The race is close, partly because Ted Cruz is universally disliked. His approval rating in Texas has been underwater all year. In June, 41% of Texans disapproved of him, while 39% approved.
It is also close because voters are engaged. Beto’s campaign has been registering thousands of new voters every week. In March, the SoS reported 15,249,541 registered voters in Texas. By September, that was 15.6 million. The final numbers aren’t out, but in early October, we were at 15.7 million.
If turnout tracks 2014, less than 30% of them will show up to vote. 5% of a regular mid-term turnout is roughly 225,000 votes. Finding another 225,000 votes among almost 16 million registered voters (almost 20 million eligible) is not a problem. Turning them out on November 6th is the challenge.
If there’s any campaign that can make it happen in Texas this year, it’s Beto’s. He’s criss-crossed the state for months. His town-halls have seen enormous turnout. He’s got a positive message that connects with people in a way that Conserva-Bot 2000 Ted Cruz never can. The campaign’s voter ID and turnout effort is at a level we’ve never seen before. So yeah, Beto can win.
Here’s how good the campaign is, this entire diary is useless.
I don’t need to do this.
Instead, you can go read Beto’s Plan to Win. It does a better job than I can.
It lays out exactly what you need to know about why this is a challenging race, and why this is a winnable race.
I’ve been volunteering for Beto’s campaign because Texas has an outsized influence in the region. If we can win in Texas, it breaks the mold for the rest of the South and South-West. That’s part of the reason I volunteered for Doug Jones and for David Baria in Mississippi as well. The entire region is changing and we can crack it wide open.
If you’re in Texas, or can travel to Texas, go volunteer for Beto.
Lastly, what would a Beto diary be without a video of Beto:
— @subirgrewal
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