Here’s the latest news out of Texas:
Republican Ted Cruz leads Democrat Beto O'Rourke 41 percent to 36 percent in the general election race for a Texas seat in the U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.
Neal Dikeman, the Libertarian Party nominee for U.S. Senate, garnered 2 percent, according to the survey. And 20 percent of registered voters said either that they would vote for someone else in an election held today (3 percent) or that they haven’t thought enough about the contest to have a preference (17 percent).
In the governor’s race, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott holds a comfortable 12-percentage-point lead over Democratic challenger Lupe Valdez — the exact same advantage he held over Democrat Wendy Davis in an early-summer poll in 2014. Abbott went on to win that race by 20 percentage points. In this survey, Abbott had the support of 44 percent to Valdez’s 32 percent. Libertarian Mark Tippetts had the support of 4 percent of registered voters, while 20 percent chose “someone else” or said they haven’t made a choice yet.
“The safest spot for someone running in a general election in 2018 is to be able to rely on your in-state advantages without running afoul of the national environment,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin and co-director of the UT/TT Poll. “Abbott has been able to do that. He took center stage in the aftermath of the Santa Fe school shooting that avoided alienating conservatives while taking a leadership role with other Texans.
“It’s not like he’s made a big sale to Democrats, but Republicans have stayed with him. And he’s not having to elbow his way onto the stage like some of the officials lower in the executive branch,” Henson said.
The June UT/TT Poll, conducted from June 8 to June 17, is an early look at the 2018 general election, a survey of registered voters — not of the “likely voters” whose intentions will become clearer in the weeks immediately preceding the election. If recent history is the guide, most registered voters won’t vote in November; according to the Texas Secretary of State, only 34 percent of registered voters turned out in 2014, the last gubernatorial election year.
The numbers also reflect, perhaps, the faint rumble of excitement from Democrats and wariness from Republicans who together are wondering what kind of midterm election President Donald Trump might inspire. The last gubernatorial election year in Texas, 2014, came at Barack Obama’s second midterm, and like his first midterm — the Tea Party explosion of 2010 — it was a rough year for Democrats in Texas and elsewhere. As the late social philosopher Yogi Berra once said, this year could be “Déjà vu all over again.”
Trump’s approval rating in Texas is 47/44. The University of Texas/Texas Tribune internet survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from June 8 to June 17 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points.
The poll also has Lt. Governor Dan Patrick (R. TX) leading Mike Collier (D. TX) 37-31. The Attorney General race is the tightest race with Ken Paxton (R. TX) leading Justin Nelson (D. TX) 32-31. Both Beto and Cruz have been making some big headlines. Here’s the latest for Beto:
Central American children whose parents have already been deported to their home countries are now among hundreds of unaccompanied immigrant minors detained in a tent camp in Tornillo, U.S. Reps. Beto O'Rourkeand Joaquin Castro confirmed to reporters Saturday afternoon.
The two Democrats also said that at least seven young women between the ages of 13 and 17 arrived Saturday morning at the facility, which opened about a week ago and now houses almost 300 minors.
O’Rourke, Castro and U.S. Sen. Tom Udall, D-New Mexico, were allowed inside for about an hour. They said the conditions inside were humane and credited the staff with maintaining a safe environment. But the lawmakers said they were given little information about the children from federal officials — so they asked the children themselves.
“We asked, 'How long have you been in detention?' We heard one month, we heard two months, we heard up to three months,” O’Rourke, D-El Paso, said after he was briefly allowed to talk to some of the undocumented children.
O’Rourke said he was also told that some of the minors confirmed they had arrived with their parents and were separated, while others had arrived alone. The hastily built tent camp outside El Paso and along the U.S.-Mexico border is among several sites in Texas where thousands of immigrant children are being housed. A nonprofit that contracts with the federal government to provide legal services for the minors said it could be weeks before the children receive legal assistance and help finding family members.
Most of the government-provided images of the various facilities have shown very few minor girls, which has prompted lawmakers and advocates to press the government to provide details on where they are being kept. A hashtag, #wherearethegirls, has become widely used by critics of the Trump administration’s border policies.
After the tour, Castro, a San Antonio Democrat, said he was still concerned that federal officials have provided little information about where they have detained female children.
“We know that there are enough [minor females detained] to where we should be seeing more of them, and they can't give us a full accounting," he said. "And that's very disturbing."
O’Rourke said he was also left wondering about the fate of the minors in detention, especially those whose parents have been deported. He said he came away with only more questions.
“We weren’t able to get a lot of clarity on the future of these kids are how they are tracked,” he said, adding that a recent policy shift will only add to the confusion about how and when the children will be reunified with family members. The Office of Refugee Resettlement is now sharing information about immigrant families with Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he said.
“The question, though, is begged — does someone in a household with undocumented immigrants, now knowing that ICE knows that you’re there, want to lift their hand and say, ‘I’ll take that child’?” O’Rourke said.
He’s also feeling good about his chances and sharpening his talking point against Cruz:
Two days after taking the stage to rally Texas Democrats at their state convention, the party’s U.S. Senate candidate, Beto O’Rourke, told the Star-Telegram he feels like he’s currently winning in his race against incumbent Republican Ted Cruz.
The El Paso congressman made the comment during a Facebook Live conversation Sunday morning after running 2 miles along Fort Worth trails with several hundred North Texas supporters.
He’s now met with voters in all 254 counties in Texas and said face-to-face meetings are part of his unconventional plan for winning, even though voters haven’t elected a Democrat statewide for more than 20 years.
“No one can be written off,” he said, mentioning that over 400 attended a recent town hall meeting he held in rural Cooke County, where 83 percent of voters cast ballots for Donald Trump in 2016.
“That human-human connection without PACS (political action committees), without corporations, without special interests — just people, the people of Texas — is the right way to run. I believe it’s the only way to win, and it sure feels like we’re winning right now,” he said.
As of May, even without PAC and corporate money, O’Rourke had raised more than $13 million in campaign contributions. Cruz reported raising about $11 million.
O’Rourke is unusual in that he rarely criticizes his opponent Ted Cruz during campaign stops and only did so during our interview when we asked what question he would like Cruz to answer.
He asked it this way: “When are you going to deliver for the people of Texas, and why should we send you back in this position of public trust when you haven’t been able to do that before? When you shut down the government for 16 days instead of working together to find solutions and common ground?”
O’Rourke said he’s not running against a political party or person as much as he’s running to make big “aspirational changes,” by providing better access to health care, adopting a bipartisan immigration plan, supporting teachers and ensuring everyone looking for a job can find work with a decent, living wage.
And Beto’s getting ready to double down on his campaign style:
O'Rourke told delegates it was important to appeal to all voters, even in mostly Republican Loving County, which had no delegates in the convention hall.
"When we show up everywhere, that's how we win," he said.
Delegates at the convention are hoping that O'Rourke can not only beat Cruz, but help win victories for Democrats up and down the Texas ballot.
He said the state should not be known for the “intolerance" Republican leaders showed in crafting the so-called bathroom bill that critics said would have discriminated against transgender residents.
"To me, this is what Texas looks like. This is what our democracy looks like," he said. "To me, this is what winning looks like.”
After his speech, O'Rourke said he was proud of his campaign, but there was still room for improvement.
He recognized that he needs to electrify blacks and Hispanics in the same way he's excited white Democrats.
"We're getting much better at connecting with everyone," O'Rourke said. "We can't take people for granted. The only way we win on Nov. 6 is if communities of color are leading this campaign."
As for Cruz, here’s the latest:
When the National Enquirer reported without proof in March 2016 that Sen. Ted Cruz had been caught cheating with five mistresses, Cruz blamed the “tabloid smear” on “Donald Trump and his henchmen.”
When the supermarket tabloid asserted two months later that Cruz’s dad took part in a conspiracy to assassinate John F. Kennedy — based on an exceedingly creative interpretation of a decades-old photo of a man who vaguely looked like the elder Cruz handing out pamphlets with Lee Harvey Oswald — Trump gleefully spread the claim to discredit his GOP presidential rival.
On Friday, The Washington Post reported that throughout the 2016 campaign, executives from the Enquirer sent copies of its articles about Trump and his opponents — including Cruz — to Trump attorney Michael Cohen for approval before publication.
One of The Post’s sources said the tabloid effectively turned its editorial control “over to the Trump machine.”
The claim supports Cruz’s lament during the bitterness of 2016 that the Enquirer had become an extension of the front-runner's campaign, as when it "reported" that "It's over for Pervy Ted. Cruz's 5 Secret Mistresses!"
Cruz campaign officials did not respond to a request for comment Friday.
Beto has a lot of opportunities to build up his name recognition and pull this off. Let’s help keep his campaign momentum going. Click here to donate and get involved with Beto’s campaign.
Also, click below to donate and get involved with these Texas Democrats’ campaigns:
Lupe Valdez for Governor
Mike Collier for Lt. Governor
Justin Nelson for Attorney General