First of all, none of this would be possible without lots of hard work from lots of people. PLEASE click on the links and donate time or money, if you are able. The national party has written us off down here for ages, so what these people have done is remarkable. My hat is off to them.
Texas Democratic Party
Battleground Texas
League of Women Voters of Texas
Hillary for Texas
Drive for Democracy (to drive voters to the polls)
ALL the local Democratic organizations — there are too many to count, or include all of them here. We also have some amazing Kossacks involved: LibbyShaw, txjackalope (who gave me the original idea and push for this series — it wouldn’t be here without you!), txdoubledd (you have added fantastic links), MargaretPOA, ChrisLove, nomandates and the Houston Kossacks who kept me going, Ken in TX and his fantastic work out in Travis County, tiredntexas for her hard work in Harris County, oldhippiedude and everyone else out there who’s helped me build these diaries, links and worked to make this happen. FaithChatham has a wonderful series on congressional races that could be competitive — with donation links, if you have some spare change to share.
If you’re a TX voter, VOTE! Here is a FAQ list for you...early voting ENDS on Friday, 4 Nov. Vote early! Even voting early, some counties are seeing lines up to an hour or two, depending on when you go. Then, if you have time take others to the polls. Voting and enthusiasm are contagious. There are free rides in Austin, courtesy of League of Women Voters, plus the Metro is doing free rides. In Harris county, the metro is doing free rides to the polls every voting day for the rest of the cycle. The YMCA may offer free childcare on election day.
Now, on to data, analysis and caveats. The Texas Secretary of State office has excellent record-keeping...though the numbers aren’t updated until somewhere between 9 and 2. When I don’t have SoS numbers, I use the unofficial totals from the Counties.
|
2008 |
2012 |
2016 |
Day 10, top 15 counties by population
Harris (Houston) |
70,621 |
58,467 |
74,070 |
Dallas |
48,502 |
31,806 |
38,714 |
Tarrant (Ft Worth) |
48,281 |
29,293 |
37,441 |
Bexar (San Antonio) |
35,383 |
24,077 |
36,516 |
Travis (Austin) |
25,945 |
17,955 |
27,159 |
Collin (DFW) |
21,780 |
15,804 |
19,668 |
Denton |
18,053 |
12,247 |
18,311 |
El Paso |
10,744 |
6,487 |
10,556 |
Ft Bend (SW Houston) |
12,975 |
9,804 |
15,123 |
Hidalgo (Rio Grande) |
8,169 |
6,028 |
9,582 |
Montgomery (N Houston) |
9,641 |
7,687 |
12,232 |
Williamson (Round Rock) |
10,476 |
7,388 |
10,640 |
Galveston |
6,246 |
5,247 |
6,268 |
Nueces |
5,590 |
3,972 |
5,627 |
Cameron (Rio Grande) |
3,922 |
3,271 |
4,551 |
Total EV today |
336,308 |
239,533 |
326,458 |
Cumulative EV |
2,549,356 |
2,475,925 |
3,364,328 |
Total Votes (ev & mail in) |
2,736,159 |
2,679,192 |
3,655,123 |
Vote % of Registered Voters |
32.24% |
30.96% |
37.45% |
*Still missing Galveston county, and an estimated 5-8K votes. for yesterday, plus an estimated 5-10K mail-in
**UPDATE: TX SoS numbers are in.
Analysis is still hard, but there’s more out there.
Many counties have already passed their 2012 TOTALS for early voting.
Harris County: Wednesday
Dallas County: Wednesday
Tarrant County: Wednesday
Bexar County: Wednesday
Travis County: Tuesday
Collin County: Tuesday
El Paso County: Monday
Denton: Tuesday
Fort Bend: Wednesday
Hidalgo County: Tuesday
Montgomery County: Wednesday
Williamson County: Monday
Galveston County: Wednesday
In fact, the only two that HAVEN’T are Nueces, and Cameron. Which makes sense, since on Wednesday, we passed the TOTAL number of early votes for 2012 or 2008. In 2008, there were 3.5M votes early from these counties, and in 2012, there were 3.4M. We’re now at 3.6M AND COUNTING. In previous years, the final day of voting saw about an extra 150K votes over the daily averages — we’ll see if that holds true for this year as well. If so, we’re going to see roughly 1M more early votes from these counties than in 2012...putting us in line for a 10M (or so) total vote come Tuesday.
The good news: El Paso County was one of the first to pass 2012 numbers, with Travis and Hidalgo counties not far behind. These tend to be vote sinks for Team Blue. The bad news: Williamson County also passed EV totals early, as did Collin — which historically are equally strong for Team Red. There’s been a lot of discussion about whether the increase is coming from traditional demographics, or more Dem voters: unfortunately, we won’t know until the final count.
Looking at some of the math from 2012: 8M votes were cast.
4.6M: Romney
3.3M: Obama
100K: Other (mostly Johnson)
That means Clinton has a 1.6M deficit to make up. Is this possible? Yes...here comes speculation. We HAVE seen polls for other states indicating a much higher GOP crossover than normal — up to 28% in one poll of TX. Usually the crossover is about 8% or so, if I recall correctly. Let’s assume there’s an additional 10% of GOP that cross from Red to Blue. The polls (in other states) have shown crossover voting anywhere from 16%-28%. This math puts it near the middle, at 20% (I’m giving TX GOP voters the benefit of the doubt because Trump lost in the TX primary...badly).
4.1M Red
3.8M Blue
100K other
Now...what if, rather than taking 1% of the vote, Gary Johnson took another 200K from the GOP?
3.9M Red
3.8M Blue
300K other
One thing to add here: I’m expecting an extra 2M votes. Who are these votes coming from? If overall turnout was 58% or so, and Latino turnout was under 40%, then it’s likely the Latino vote share will go up — with corresponding gains for the Dems. For instance, if out of that extra 2M votes, it went 55/45 for Clinton…
4.8M Red
4.9M Blue
300K other
It’s hard to say for sure what will happen, but Mr. Ryan (GOP strategist) has been doing data analysis all the way through, comparing 2016 turnout to 2012. Unfortunately the naming convention isn’t always clean, but there’s useful data in there. I’ve been able to pull up several different reports, including from 1 Nov. Early voters have begun skewing younger (early on were 50% over 60, and down to 30% as of Tuesday), holding steady at (roughly) 54% female...what’s interesting is comparing early voters and by mail.
In 2012, 41% of mail voters had voted in GOP primaries only, while 22% were Dem primary only. In 2016, we’ve held steady at roughly 39% voting in GOP primaries...with north of 30% (though decreasing from 33-31%) voting in the Dem primary. When you add in ‘leaners’ it was 47% GOP primaries, 23% Dem in 2012, while in 2016 it seems to be about 40% GOP, 32% Dem.
A different trend can be seen for in-person. Using ‘leaners’ (GOP/Dem most recently), In 2012 the total was 31% GOP, 28% Dem. This year so far has 34% GOP early voters, 23% Dem voters. Only GE voters have held fairly steady year-over-year...it’s the 1st time voters that are making the change. We’re seeing increasing numbers of 1st time voters coming out and voting.
What are our benchmarks? Obviously, we want fewer GOP voters (as a percentage). Today and tomorrow are HUGE voting days, so we have the chance to make this up. I also don’t have any idea how many people chose to vote in a GOP primary for the first time so they could either vote for Cruz, or against Trump. The Latino vote is huge — especially to support down-ballot candidates.
In short: the analysis can still hold. If we work, we can still make this happen — but it’s going to go to the wire.