Thank you, Axios for this:
There's a reason Trump said hardly anything about Republican candidate Rick Saccone during a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday night that was supposed to promote his candidacy.
- The reason: Trump thinks Saccone is a terrible, "weak" candidate, according to four sources who've spoken to the president about him.
- Trump held that opinion of Saccone before leaving for the rally, and I've not been able to establish whether his time on the ground with the candidate changed his mind.
- Trump isn't the only top Republican who’s found Saccone underwhelming. The widely-held view from Republican officials: Democrat Conor Lamb is a far superior candidate to Saccone and running a far better campaign. Lamb is running effectively as Republican Lite. He's pro-gun and says he personally opposes to abortion (though he supports abortion rights).
- The thing that most irks senior Republicans involved in the race: Saccone has been a lousy fundraiser. Lamb has outraised Saccone by a staggering margin — nearly 500 percent.
Politico's Alex Isenstadt was first to report that Trump was not impressed with Saccone.
I spoke on Saturday to Corry Bliss, who runs the outside groups linked to Paul Ryan and may have as much as $140 million to spend on the midterm elections.
- "The lesson of this race is that campaigns and candidates matter,” Bliss told me. “In this environment, when one campaign out-raises and runs circles around the other, that creates a number of challenges that are tough to overcome."
While this is great to hear, we can’t underestimate if Trump was able to energize his base for Saccone. The RNC claims Trump’s visit did just that:
Yet there’s evidence the Republican offensive might be having some effect. A data analysis completed by the RNC during the middle of last week showed Lamb leading just 48 percent to 47 percent, according to two people briefed on the numbers. The Democrat’s advantage had shrunk from four percentage points in the committee’s previous analysis of the race days earlier.
Saccone, a 60-year-old state legislator and retired Air Force officer, was optimistic that momentum was “swinging our way.”
“It’s a special election, so it’s all about turnout,” Saccone said at the Allegheny County Republican Party headquarters on Friday, when he was asked why the race was so close. “Our people get out, we win, and there’s no problem.”
But Lamb still has a lot of enthusiasm and momentum going into this race:
At a Sunday afternoon rally at the Greene County Fairgrounds, Roberts was on hand to generate enthusiasm for Lamb, who’s running in the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th district against the Trump-backed Republican Rick Saccone. Lamb has already been the beneficiary of no end of buzz. (United Mine Workers of America President Cecil) Roberts likened a vote for Lamb to the Biblical story of Moses standing up to Pharaoh and to Gandhi’s fight against British rule. At the same event, a Lamb supporter told BuzzFeed the last time she saw people this excited about a candidate was John Kennedy. Even supporters of Lamb’s opponent have nice things to say: one attendee of Saturday’s Trump rally described Lamb in an interview with ThinkProgress as “personable and charismatic… just like Barack Obama.”
Many in Western Pennsylvania are hopeful that Lamb is the future. The young former Marine and federal prosecutor has bucked the national party, promising voters that he won’t support House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker if elected, nor will he support a ban on assault weapons. Lamb also says that while he is personally pro-life, he would not cast a vote for a 20-week abortion ban.
Just 18 months ago, Trump won Pennsylvania’s 18th district by 20 points. Now, Lamb is locked in a widely-hyped special election to replace Rep. Tim Murphy (R), who resigned in recent months when his scandalous affair found its way into the headlines. (Murphy, an anti-abortion Republican, reportedly asked his mistress to get an abortion when he believed she was pregnant.)
The seat, tucked deep within Trump country, seemed safe for Republicans — until suddenly, it didn’t. In the weeks leading up to the special election, polls have shown Lamb gaining ground on Saccone. A recent Emerson poll from early March even had Lamb leading by three.
The hype is somewhat overblown, however, considering the circumstances. If Lamb pulls off the upset win in Tuesday’s special election, he’ll only serve for nine months before having to run again in November’s midterm elections. And depending how the ongoing fight over Pennsylvania’s gerrymandered Congressional districts plays out, there’s a decent chance that the 18th district won’t even exist by this time next year.
But Lamb’s supporters aren’t thinking about that. They’re only thinking about Tuesday — and they are, to borrow a phrase, fired up.
And Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania agree that Lamb is the stronger candidate in this race:
Democrats and Republicans involved in the race agree on a few things. State Rep. Rick Saccone (R) has run a lackluster campaign. Democrat Conor Lamb has proven to be a stellar candidate. Liberals’ fury at President Trump is so strong that even in a blue-collar district he won by 20 points his support for Saccone is a two-edged sword. And the race couldn’t be tighter, a warning sign for the GOP no matter who wins given the deeply populist-conservative nature of Pittsburgh’s suburbs and exurbs.
“Conor Lamb has made it very close, and that’s rather remarkable when you consider the district,” Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) told TPM. “Conor’s been a great candidate and candidates matter, but this does indicate that we can be competitive in states and districts that maybe a year ago or 18 months ago we’d never considered.”
Republicans privately agree, even as they look to pin the blame mostly on Saccone and downplay what it would mean to lose a deep red, culturally conservative district after a brutal loss in an Alabama Senate race late last year, a beat-down in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, dozens of losses of state legislative seats and a number of close calls in House special elections.
“We’re very concerned about this race,” one national Republican involved in the campaign told TPM. “The enthusiasm’s certainly there for Democrats. We’ve seen that in pretty much every race. That said, this is more an issue of a mediocre candidate, and mediocre is a kind way to describe him, versus a very good candidate.”
Public and private polls from both parties have found a margin-of-error race with the wind behind Lamb, who was down a few points in multiple surveys late last month. As Democrats’ hopes build, Republicans have been increasingly vocal about their frustrations with Saccone, a deeply flawed candidate who has paled in comparison to Lamb both in retail political skill and fundraising ability.
While the telegenic young Lamb has impressed even Republicans with his disciplined campaign, and calculated splits with the national Democratic Party, Republicans have blasted Saccone for weak fundraising, an inability to tell his own story as a veteran, his deep hostility to unions in a union-heavy district, and past mistakes like telling a mother whose kid had died of opioid abuse that addiction was a “family responsibility” and the it’s not taxpayers’ responsibility to help, a brutal remark in a district where opioids are a serious problem.
Lamb’s huge fundraising numbers have allowed him to spend more than $3 million on TV ads touting his impressive biography as a former Marine and prosecutor, tout his Second Amendment support (even as he backs universal background checks) and promise to support new Democratic leadership and not House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), diffusing millions of dollars of GOP attacks tying him to her. Saccone hasn’t reached $1 million in TV, leaving it to outside groups to define him, and while national Republicans realized early on Saccone would be a problem and have spent roughly $10 million to tear down Lamb and boost Saccone they admit not much has worked in the race.
FiveThirtyEight breaks down in which areas Lamb could best Saccone in the district to pull off this win:
Taking in coal mines, covered bridges, wealthy suburbs and lush state parks, the Pennsylvania 18th stretches from Pennsylvania’s southwest corner up north past Pittsburgh International Airport to the Ohio River, then cuts east across the Monongahela River to the Laurel Highlands. It encompasses parts of four counties: Allegheny (home to 43 percent of the district’s voters, based on 2016 presidential results), Westmoreland (33 percent), Washington (22 percent) and Greene (2 percent).
The 18th District’s slice of Allegheny County consists of Pittsburgh’s southwestern suburbs and is a swing region — Democrats typically find most of their votes here. The other three counties, more rural and far-flung, are normally Republican strongholds, although they have strong historical ties to organized labor, a traditionally Democratic constituency.
If you’re watching the special election results as they come in (polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern), pay attention to these county-by-county variations; they can help you project the ultimate winner. Assuming that the whole district shifts left or right uniformly (more on this in a second), we’ve calculated an approximate benchmark for how we would expect each county to vote if the election were exactly tied districtwide. If the counties are voting more Republican than their benchmarks, then Saccone is on pace to win. If they’re voting more Democratic, then Lamb is ahead. (The not-so-grisly math behind these benchmarks: We used the same weighted average of the last two presidential elections to arrive at a partisan lean for each county, then moved it 21 points in Democrats’ direction — because that’s how much the entire district needs to shift leftward to deliver Lamb a victory.)
Granted, the district may not shift uniformly. Westmoreland, Washington and Greene all voted much more Republican with Trump on the ticket than with Romney, while Trump seemed to scare away some Romney voters in Allegheny. Lamb’s Blue Dog appeal may mean he wins over more Obama-Trump voters than Romney-Clinton voters, making the 2016 election a poor template for 2018. In such a scenario, it’s quite possible that Lamb misses the mark in Allegheny but still wins the election by overperforming in Westmoreland and Washington, so use these benchmarks with a grain of salt.
While union voters are key to Lamb’s win, there’s also another key constituency that could deliver a victory for Lamb:
One reason Mr. Lamb seems poised to exceed expectations for a Democrat in his district is the anti-Trump fervor of progressive voters concentrated in the white-collar suburbs close to Pittsburgh.
These voters have swamped the polls in nearly every election of the past year, from Virginia to rural Wisconsin, and Democrats have been outperforming their November 2016 results in race after race.
Chuck Moser, a sales director for Cisco who held a fund-raiser for Mr. Lamb at a private club in Sewickley, an affluent suburb, waited in a long line last week to hear former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. campaign for Mr. Lamb.
“I haven’t previously stood out in chilly weather waiting to go to rallies,” he said.
He and his wife, Barb, 40, described themselves as more liberal than Mr. Lamb.
Mr. Moser said voters like them would make an important difference on Tuesday.
“He really does not want to run against Donald Trump in this district,” Mr. Moser said of Mr. Lamb. “He doesn’t mention his name. He doesn’t contrast himself. But what I’m seeing is, a lot of the energy for the Democrats is based upon the dislike of Donald Trump. Even though Conor is not publicly embracing that, he’s definitely benefiting from it.”
Let’s the seal the deal tomorrow. If you want to help get out the vote, click here to sign up with the Pennsylvania Democratic Party to help make calls for Lamb’s campaign.
Or, click here to donate and get directly involved with Lamb’s campaign.