Senate: We have quite a few surveys of the upper chamber:
- AL-Sen: Morning Consult: Tommy Tuberville (R): 52, Doug Jones (D-inc): 35 (Trump 58-36)
- KY-Sen: Morning Consult: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 53, Amy McGrath (D): 36 (Trump 59-35)
- MI-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for Progress Michigan: Gary Peters (D-inc): 47, John James (R): 39 (49-43 Biden) (July: 49-42 Peters)
- SC-Sen: Morning Consult: Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 44, Jaime Harrison (D): 43 (Trump 49-44)
- TX-Sen: Morning Consult: John Cornyn (R-inc): 44, MJ Hegar (D): 38 (Biden 47-46)
- TX-Sen: Global Strategy Group (D) and Latino Decisions for DSCC: Cornyn (R-inc): 43, Hegar (D): 42
This is the first poll we’ve seen of Alabama since Tommy Tuberville won the Republican primary runoff on July 14.
The only other Kentucky survey that has been released in the last month was a mid-July survey from Garin-Hart-Yang for Amy McGrath that had her down just 45-41. That sample also showed Donald Trump ahead by a smaller 53-41 in a state he carried 63-33 four years ago.
Michigan has been polled considerably more often than any of these other states, and PPP’s numbers are similar to what we’ve seen elsewhere. Our Daily Kos Elections polling average, which does not factor in this latest survey, shows Democratic incumbent Gary Peters ahead 50-37.
We recently saw two polls taken for Jaime Harrison in South Carolina that also found Graham only narrowly ahead. Brilliant Corners had the incumbent up 43-41 as Trump led 50-43, while ALG Research found Graham and Trump leading 49-45 and 50-45, respectively. Trump carried the Palmetto State 55-41 four years ago.
We’ve seen one reliable survey of the Texas Senate race since MJ Hegar won her primary runoff on July 14, a Quinnipiac poll that showed Cornyn up 47-38. That release, though, also found Joe Biden ahead 45-44, which is the same margin that Morning Consult finds now. (The poll for the DSCC did not include presidential numbers for the Lone Star State, which Trump carried 52-43 in 2016.) That could indicate that the undecideds in the Senate contest, contrary to what you'd usually find in a red state like Texas, lean toward Democrats, which could give Hegar a lift.