Here’s some good news today out of Virginia courtesy of Emerson University’s latest poll:
Democrat and former Governor Terry McAuliffe leads Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin 49% to 45% among likely voters in the first Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race. Two percent (2%) of voters plan to vote for someone else, and 5% are undecided. Among those who are undecided, 63% lean towards Youngkin, and 37% lean towards McAuliffe.
Men break for Youngkin, 48% to 45%, while McAuliffe has the support of a majority (53%) of women voters. Looking at educational attainment, voters without a college degree break for Youngkin 50% to 43%, while voters with a college degree are more likely to support McAuliffe, 55% to 39%.
McAuliffe performs well with voters of color, capturing the support of 56% of Hispanic voters, 63% of Black voters, and 75% of Asian voters in the state. Conversely, Youngkin has the support of the majority (51%) of White voters.
Youngkin leads with Republicans (82% to 15%) while McAuliffe leads with Democrats (90% to 6%). Among Independents, the majority (54%) support Youngkin, compared to 35% who support McAuliffe and 9% who are undecided.
Youngkin is strongest in the Western region of Virginia, where he has the support of 60% of voters, and the Southern Coastal region, where he is at 55% support. In comparison, McAuliffe does best in the Northern region, with 63% support, and the Southeastern region, with 64% support.
Eighty-four percent (84%) of voters indicate that they definitely plan to vote on their candidate, while 16% say there is still a chance they could change their mind before election day.
Attorney General Mark Herring (D. VA) also beats Jason Miyares (R. VA) 47-41.
Also, McAuliffe just scored The Washington Post Editorial Board’s endorsement:
Democrat Terry McAuliffe makes a persuasive case as he campaigns to reclaim his former job as governor of Virginia, which does not allow consecutive terms in office. Having notched a string of successes in his first four-year term, which ended in 2018, Mr. McAuliffe — shrewd, pragmatic and tireless — has advanced an ambitious blueprint for a second term focused on education and equity.
His pro-business, moderately left-of-center priorities are in step with a state that has trended Democratic for more than a decade but has remained leery of the party’s leftward tilt elsewhere. By contrast, the Republican nominee, Glenn Youngkin, a candidate making his first run for political office, has played footsie with the scurrilously anti-democratic “big lie” that election fraud propelled President Biden into office; signaled he would roll back gun-safety laws and abortion access; equivocated on same-sex marriage; and called Medicaid expansion, which provided health insurance for hundreds of thousands of Virginians, “sad.”
The most that can be said for Mr. Youngkin, a former private-equity executive, is that he might make a capable steward of Virginia’s economy. But even in that sphere he offers no advantage over Mr. McAuliffe, a legendary dealmaker who showed himself to be a skilled and responsible steward of taxpayer funds and the state economy.
Here’s also the latest look at fundraising totals:
Virginia's major-party candidates for governor continued a record-setting fundraising pace in July and August, with Republican Glenn Youngkin leading the way with contributions of $15.7 million for the period and Democrat Terry McAuliffe reporting $11.5 million.
McAuliffe has twice as much cash on hand, however, with about $12.6 million in the bank compared with about $6 million for Youngkin, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project.
Cash on hand includes money carried over from previous campaign finance reporting periods.
Youngkin, a former private-equity executive with no political experience, spent heavily on television advertising and other media over the summer as he introduced himself to voters, according to campaign finance reports filed with the state Department of Elections.
More than half of Youngkin’s fundraising haul for the two-month period came from two sources: almost $4 million in contributions from the political action arm of the Republican Governors Association and loans from his own pocket of $4.5 million.
And Democrats and Democratic groups are investing big to keep Virginia Blue:
A gun-control group that helped turn Virginia blue two years ago plans to spend more than $1.8 million in a bid to shape the state's gubernatorial race and other down-ballot contests this fall, according to spending plans shared first with CNN.
Everytown for Gun Safety, backed by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, plans to pump roughly $1 million into its efforts to elect Democrat Terry McAuliffe, with another $500,000 going to support a dozen Democrats running for the House of Delegates.
An additional $300,000 will aid the campaigns of state lawmaker Hala Ayala, who is running for lieutenant governor, and Mark Herring, who is seeking a third term as attorney general.
John Feinblatt, the president of Everytown, said the group likely will drive even more money this fall into contests in Virginia, which he said would serve as a "bellwether" for the 2022 midterm elections and the potency of gun violence as a campaign issue.
"Voters are seeing an epidemic within an epidemic," he said. "We've had to deal with the Covid pandemic, but what we're also seeing is a rise in violent crime, and that's making voters even more supportive of gun-safety laws."
In 2019, Everytown was one of the biggest outside political players in Virginia, spending $2.5 million in legislative elections that saw Democrats take control of the state's executive and legislative branches for the
first time in more than two decades.
FYI, kudos to 90 For 90 for highlighting all of this:
Also, be sure to tune in tonight:
Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin are set to square off in Virginia’s first gubernatorial debate of the general election season, in a race that is being closely watched as a possible indicator of voter sentiment heading into the 2022 national midterm elections.
The two candidates are set to meet Thursday night at the Appalachian School of Law in Grundy, a tiny town in conservative southwest Virginia.
It’s the first of two gubernatorial debates to be held before the Nov. 2 election. The second debate is planned for Sept. 28 at a community college in liberal-leaning northern Virginia.
Thursday’s hourlong debate will be moderated by Susan Page, the Washington bureau chief of USA Today. Page will be joined by panelists Bob Holsworth, a well-known Virginia political analyst, and Candace Burns, an anchor for CBS 6 News in Richmond.
It will be streaming on Appalachian School of Law’s YouTube channel.