A scary time of year is approaching as the Atlantic hurricane season is usually predicted to take place from June 1 through Nov. 30, and National Hurricane Preparedness Week took place last week here in the U.S. from May 5 to 11. I have frequently criticized our media for paying too little attention to Caribbean weather events. News organizations tend to focus on storms that may wind up hitting Florida or the Gulf Coast, ignoring mitigation efforts and the impact on island nations that sit on the front lines.
Though most of us remember Hurricanes Maria, Irma, and Katrina, I rarely hear mention of these catastrophic Caribbean events: Hurricane Gordon (which hit in 1994 and resulted in 1,152 deaths); Hurricane David (hit in 1979 and caused 2,068 deaths); and Hurricane Jeanne (hit in 2004 and resulted in 3,037 deaths).
Major Caribbean weather monitoring sources are predicting serious storms this year, and flooding already happening in island nations has been overlooked in reports of massive flooding in other areas of the globe.
Caribbean Matters is a weekly series from Daily Kos. If you are unfamiliar with the region, check out Caribbean Matters: Getting to know the countries of the Caribbean.
I follow numerous Caribbean social media accounts, which is where I saw reports of increased flooding in the region even before the start of the hurricane season. That includes this post on X (formerly Twitter) from Puerto Rico:
Since I’m not a scientist, I follow meteorologist Brian Shields at WFTV-9 Orlando, whose reports explain things so that a layperson can understand them. As far as I know, he’s the only U.S. weather forecaster who regularly reports on the entire Caribbean (and he knows the difference between Barbuda and Barbados). He’s known as Mr. Weatherman on YouTube.
Tracking hurricanes, tropical storms, and threatening weather — in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical Atlantic — Big island or small island, we all matter! Brian has decades of experience forecasting weather and covering natural disasters. He holds a degree in Geography from Villanova University and a degree in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University. He also holds university certificates in Emergency Management and Volcanology. Safety is his number one priority!
Here’s his May 8, 2024, report on the flooding:
Carib Daily News reported on Shields’ hurricane predictions in an article titled, “Caribbean Forecast: Meteorologist Brian Shields Provides Insights on Approaching Hurricane Season.”
Turning attention to prevailing meteorological conditions, Shields noted a transition towards La Niña in the Eastern Pacific. He discussed potential implications for the Caribbean, including reduced wind shear and warmer sea surface temperatures. Shields urged residents to remain vigilant and prepare for potential impacts. Addressing factors influencing hurricane activity in the Caribbean, Shields highlighted moisture levels, dry air, and airborne dust. He underscored the potential for rapid intensification due to above-average sea surface temperatures, urging proactive measures to mitigate risks.
Here’s a report from Apr 24, 2024:
One of the positive things I’ve noticed about Shields’ YouTube channel is the comments section, where hundreds of people from all across the Caribbean have logged on to thank him for his coverage.
Meteorologist Daniel Schreiber at consulting firm J.S. Held posted these predictions in the firm’s 2024 Hurricane Season Outlook:
Colorado State University (CSU) is one of the most respected institutions for researching and predicting hurricanes. On April 4, 2024, CSU issued the first of several forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season [1], which indicated an active year for tropical cyclones. CSU noted some similarities in weather patterns to the 2020 season, which was also an active tropical cyclone year.
CSU predicts (based on their April 2024 outlook) that there will be 23 named storms in the Atlantic this season, about half of which (11) are expected to become hurricanes. Of those expected to become hurricanes, half (5) are expected to become major hurricanes (at least Category 3). CSU researchers indicated there is a 62% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline, and a 66% chance of a major hurricane landfalling in the Caribbean. The top 10 most likely landfall locations for a major hurricane (Category 3 or larger) this year, according to the CSU April 2024 outlook, are:
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The Bahamas – 46%
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Florida – 44%
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Monroe County – 27%
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Miami-Dade County – 23%
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Collier County – 21%
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Lee County – 19%
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Broward County – 18%
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Cuba – 39%
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Mexico – 30%
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Quintana Roo – 24%
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Yucatan – 20%
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Dominican Republic – 27%
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Texas – 25%
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Matagorda County – 13%
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Louisiana – 23%
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St. Bernard Parish – 13%
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Bermuda – 19%
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Honduras – 18%
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Turks and Caicos – 18%
Pedro DiNezio, associate professor of atmospheric and ocean sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, wrote an in-depth piece for The Conversation explaining how La Niña affects hurricanes titled, “La Niña is coming, raising the chances of a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season – an atmospheric scientist explains this climate phenomenon”:
How does La Niña affect hurricanes?
Temperatures in the tropical Pacific also control wind shear over large parts of the Atlantic Ocean.
Wind shear is a difference in wind speeds at different heights or direction. Hurricanes have a harder time holding their column structure during strong wind shear because stronger winds higher up push the column apart.
La Niña produces less wind shear, removing a brake on hurricanes. That’s not good news for people living in hurricane-prone regions like Florida. In 2020, during the last La Niña, the Atlantic saw a record 30 tropical storms and 14 hurricanes, and 2021 had 21 tropical storms and seven hurricanes.
Forecasters are already warning that this year’s Atlantic storm season could rival 2021, due in large part to La Niña. The tropical Atlantic has also been exceptionally warm, with sea surface temperature-breaking records for over a year. That warmth affects the atmosphere, causing more atmospheric motion over the Atlantic, fueling hurricanes.
What are some of the efforts being made to prepare? Lt. Col. Marnee A.C. Losurdo of the U.S. Air Force Reserve Command posted an article titled, “Caribbean outreach mission promotes hurricane preparedness.”
… the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters and a team of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters visited four Caribbean locations April 16-20 as part of the annual Caribbean Hurricane Awareness Tour.
The CHAT, a joint effort between NOAA's National Hurricane Center and the 403rd Wing's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, promotes hurricane awareness and preparedness throughout the Caribbean region.
More than 13,000 people attended this year's event, which stopped at Nassau, Bahamas, Barbados, St. Lucia and Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. Locals were able to tour the WC-130J aircraft and talk to NHC forecasters, Reserve Citizen Airmen with the 53rd WRS, and a crew member with NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center. “The goal of the Caribbean Hurricane Awareness Tour is to not only showcase the brave men and women who fly directly into these dangerous storms to collect data for us at the NHC, but to promote a culture of preparedness for the 2024 hurricane season,” said Mike Brennan, director of the NHC in Miami. “Now is the time to prepare.”
The CariGuard website offers some important advice to Caribbean residents, including, “Familiarize yourself with your National Disaster Offices and Emergency Shelters.”
The National Disaster Office (NDO) in every island holds the responsibility of coordinating a multi-hazard response with respective authorities. National and Regional response is coordinated with the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA). Here are some offices within the islands:
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Antigua and Barbuda: National Office of Disaster Service
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Barbados: Department of Emergency Management
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British Virgin Islands: Department of Disaster Management
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Dominica: Office of Disaster Management
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Grenada: National Disaster Management Agency
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St. Lucia: National Emergency Management Organization
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St. Vincent and the Grenadines: National Emergency Management Organization
The NDO, Met Office, and Government Information Systems are usually the first points of credible information for activity in the Atlantic. Hurricane watches and warnings would be issued to the public, but they are often misunderstood:
A hurricane watch is issued when there is a threat of hurricane conditions within 24-36 hours. A hurricane warning is issued when hurricane conditions (winds of 74 miles per hour or greater, or dangerously high water and rough seas) are expected in 24 hours or less (cdema.org)
The Caribbean Broadcasting Corporation reports that in Barbados, hurricane preparations are already beginning.
With the 2024 hurricane season one month away, Minister of Home Affairs and Information, Wilfred Abrahams is reminding Barbadians to take all precautions as the weather systems are changing. As a result, hardware stores are stocked and ready to receive customers, and retailers say Barbadians have been preparing earlier than usual as the start of the season approaches. But they expect as the month progresses, more customers will come in droves. Rachelle Agard reports.
Here’s hoping that this year’s predictions won’t come to fruition but that if they do, people who live on the islands will have time to prepare to mitigate the damages and potential loss of life.
Please join me in the comments section below for more, and for the weekly Caribbean news roundup.
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