A new Marist Poll gauging the electoral implications of a guilty verdict in Donald Trump’s hush money trial is taking on new meaning following news Thursday of his criminal conviction on all 34 counts of falsifying business records. Though the poll, which was conducted for NPR and PBS, found that 67% of voters said a conviction would have no impact on their vote, nearly one-third said it likely would affect their choice for president.
At first blush, whether a guilty verdict helps or hurts Trump was negligible, with 15% saying a conviction makes them more likely to vote for him and 17% saying less likely.
The question is: Which demographics said a conviction might turn them off of Trump—and do they help President Joe Biden?
The answer? It's complicated. The partisan breakdown is almost a wash, with Democrats 20 points “less likely” to vote for Trump, and Republicans and independents a combined 19 points “more likely” to vote for Trump, by 15% and 4%, respectively.
But digging into the poll's crosstabs, a guilty verdict could possibly help Biden on the margins by maximizing his standing among some important voting groups who already favor him and giving him a boost in areas of the country that will play an outsized role in the election’s outcome.
Among college graduates, who are generally favorable for Biden, voters are 7 points less likely to vote for a convicted Trump (10% more likely to 17% less likely). Among voters who aren't college graduates, Trump only gains 3 points. That’s +4 for Biden. (It’s worth noting that someone not voting for Trump doesn’t necessarily equate to a vote for Biden. But Trump potentially losing a vote still redounds to Biden’s favor.)
Along gender lines, men are 2 points more likely to vote for a guilty Trump, but women are 5 points less likely. That’s a potential +3 for Biden.
Among suburbanites, another good Biden cohort, voters are 5 points less likely to vote for a convicted Trump, as are voters in big cities, for a combined 10 points. Small cities were a wash, but Trump gained 3 points in both small towns and rural areas, for a 6-point bump. That’s +4 for Biden.
Biden also came out ahead among age groups, with the two biggest blocs of voters, Gen Z/millennials and Baby Boomers, saying they were 3 points and 8 points less likely to back a guilty Trump, respectively. A guilty Trump gained 2 points among Gen Xers and 4 points among the Silent/Greatest Generation. That’s +5 for Biden.
A guilty verdict also appeared to help Biden regionally, with voters in the Northeast (2 points), Midwest (5 points), and West (5 points) all saying a conviction made them less likely to vote for Trump, by a combined 12 points. Voters in the South said they were 2 points more likely to vote for Trump. Biden's most crucial and gettable states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada—are all within regions where a conviction hurt Trump more than it helped him.
And then there's white evangelicals, a terrible demographic for Biden, who counted themselves 13 points more likely to vote for Trump if he's convicted. Keep it classy, Bible-thumpers—he’s all yours!
Remember, this election will be decided on the margins and, marginally speaking, Trump’s conviction appears to help Biden among the demographics and the areas of the country he needs most in order to win in November.
No, a Trump conviction isn't a lock for Biden in any way, but yes, it could help him win reelection.
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Every day brings a new prognostication that is making President Joe Biden's campaign operatives worry or freak out. Is Donald Trump running away with the election? No. Not even close.