Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.
New York Times:
Jurors found that the former president committed crimes. Here’s the latest.
Mr. Trump was convicted on all 34 counts of falsifying business records by a jury of 12 New Yorkers, who deliberated over two days to reach a decision in a case rife with descriptions of secret deals, tabloid scandal and an Oval Office pact with echoes of Watergate. The jury found that Mr. Trump had faked records to conceal the purpose of money given to his onetime fixer, Michael D. Cohen. The false records disguised the payments as ordinary legal expenses when in truth, Mr. Trump was reimbursing Mr. Cohen for a $130,000 hush-money deal the fixer struck with the porn star Stormy Daniels to silence her account of a sexual liaison with Mr. Trump.
I'm in awe of the judge and jury who gave Donald Trump a fair trial. The system worked. Here’s some instant reaction:
Benjy Sarlin/Semafor:
The subtle reason why Donald Trump’s conviction might matter to voters
Let’s start with one data point that I’m not too impressed with: Polling around the conviction. The numbers aren’t consistent, but there are at least some surveys showing a small but significant percentage of committed Trump voters would withdraw their support if he were found guilty of a felony. Hypotheticals are tough to poll in general, and whether conscious or not, partisans are very likely to “come home” after a scandal — if they leave in the first place — just as they did after the Access Hollywood tape in 2016. Even less useful: Polls that ask voters whether they are “more likely” or “less likely” to vote based on an issue, which rarely say much about the overall state of the race.
A better reason to think there might be a real shift are the people who haven’t been paying close attention to the trial, or who have only a vague sense of Trump’s “legal problems” as an issue, or who assumed that Trump would easily survive his various charges.
These low-engagement voters look like the main characters in this election and the news could be a shock to the system that plays out in unpredictable ways — especially when his sentencing is set to take place on July 11, just days before the Republican National Convention, providing another high-drama moment just as they might be starting to tune in even more to the race.
Tim O’Brien/Bloomberg:
Trump Fought the Law and the Law Finally Won
The former president faced the reckoning he has long deserved, but the more critical verdict will come on Election Day.
Trump, predictably, remained unbowed.
“This was a disgrace. This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt,” he said outside the courtroom after the verdict was read. “The real verdict is gonna be Nov. 5, by the people.”
“Our country’s gone to hell,” he added, in case you needed a bit of cheering up. “We don’t have the same country anymore. We have a divided mess.”
Trump, who has been a primary architect of the divided mess that is the United States, knows of what he speaks. He has routinely deployed lies, racism and us-versus-them paranoia to help undermine Americans’ faith in one another, in our institutions and in the world around us. He has romped along, merrily stoking conflagrations wherever he could, unchecked.
Congress impeached Trump twice, but Republican allies put the acquisition and retention of power ahead of civic duty and let him elude accountability. Three other criminal trials are still in motion against him, but they’ve been bogged down by a blend of judicial malfeasance and ineptitude and prosecutorial lapses. But a handful of New York law enforcement officials, in a prosecution that was fated from its very beginnings to be labeled a witch hunt, finally brought Trump to heel.
Meanwhile …
Dan Pfeiffer/”The Message Box” on Substack:
Thoughts on How to Talk About the Biden Economy
Empathy vs Progress is a false choice
One Way to Tell the Story
The perceived choice between empathy for people angry about higher prices and selling Biden’s economic accomplishments is false. The story of the Biden economy can simultaneously account for the good things that have happened on his watch and the very legitimate feelings people have about the economy. Offering empathy simply does not mean — as some commentators posit — accepting Trump’s argument that the economy is in shambles.
Per usual, in times of anxiety, Democrats have unnecessarily wrapped ourselves around the axel. The story is really not that complicated. Tremendous progress has been made, there is a lot of work to do, people still need help, and Donald Trump would make it all worse.
Jill Lawrence/The Bulwark:
The Alito Flag Story and Other Journalistic Botched Calls
Save your outrage for those who really deserve it.
The news business is a nonstop series of judgment calls, all day, every day. There are few if any concrete rules, and while some decisions are easy, many only seem that way in hindsight. Which brings us to the Washington Post’s revelation Saturday that a reporter and his editor knew about the upside-down American flag at Justice Samuel Alito’s house more than three years ago, and—drumroll—did not write a story.
Jonathan V Last/The Bulwark:
Mrs. Alito Isn’t the Problem
Justice Alito lied to the media and to the public. His judicial integrity cannot be trusted. And he doesn’t care that you know it.
With respect, the problem with Justice Alito is not that his wife is fond of flying flags and may have insurrectionist sympathies.
The problem is that Justice Alito lied to the public.
And Justice Alito’s public lies make it impossible to trust his judicial integrity.
To understand the problem, we’re going to have to look at three different timelines.
Dan Pfeiffer/”The Message Box” on Substack:
How Trump's Conviction Could Cost Him the Election
Despite the narrative, polls show that more than enough voters are concerned about sending a convict to the White House
Know the Targets
Most upcoming voters plan to decide on the economy, abortion, or immigration. Other voters are very concerned about the prospect of sending a convict to the White House. CNN released a poll in late April that offered some interesting details on the voters who could abandon Trump if convicted:
They tend to be younger than other Trump supporters (64% are younger than 50 compared with 37% of those who would not reconsider), are less likely to be White (49% are people of color compared with 17% of those who would not reconsider), are more apt to report being Biden voters in 2020 (20% of them say they backed Biden in 2020 vs. 6% of those who would not reconsider) and are likelier to acknowledge that Biden legitimately won enough votes to win the presidency four years ago (63% vs. 22% among those who would not reconsider). They are also more apt to be political independents (49% vs. 31%) and ideologically moderate (50% vs. 38%).
Most notable, these are the exact voters who supported Biden in 2020 but are threatening to defect in 2024.
Anyone who voted for Nikki Haley in the primary but is not yet committed to Trump is also a target for a message focusing on Trump’s unfitness for office.
Bill Scher/Washington Monthly:
Donald Trump Should Drop Out
We’ve had months of calls for Joe Biden to drop out because of middling poll numbers. The grounds for a Trump withdrawal are far firmer.
Convicted felon Donald Trump’s first words after the historic jury verdict were predictably defiant: “The real verdict is going to be November 5 by the people.”
The Biden-Harris campaign’s communication director issued a statement (perhaps written in anticipation of a hung jury) that didn’t challenge that point: “Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president.”
The rest of us need not accept this assumption. If the Republican Party had any sense of decency and self-respect, they wouldn’t either. For the good of the country, Donald Trump should drop out the 2024 presidential race.