• San Francisco, CA Mayor: Neighbors for a Better San Francisco, a moderate organization that has spent millions to beat local progressive candidates, announced Monday that it was endorsing both former Supervisor Mark Farrell and philanthropist Daniel Lurie in the Nov. 5 instant-runoff contest—but not Mayor London Breed. Neighbors, which The San Francisco Standard characterized as "the city’s most powerful political group," is funded in part by William Oberndorf, a billionaire who often contributes to Republicans.
Neighbors said it was snubbing the moderate incumbent because Breed has not "demonstrated an ability to govern with the degree of persistence and consistency necessary to solve San Francisco’s problems." It also argued that Supervisor Aaron Peskin, who is the only major contender who identifies as a progressive, represented "a very real threat to the future of San Francisco," and was "likely to attract a significant amount of the vote."
Despite that apocalyptic pronouncement, however, Neighbors also released a mid-May internal from FM3 that showed Peskin taking fourth place in November. The poll found Farrell, who served as interim mayor for six months in 2018, edging out Breed 20-19 when it came to first-choice preferences, with Lurie and Peskin respectively at 17% and 12%. Another 4% went to Supervisor Ahsha Safaí, another moderate who has failed to gain traction so far, with 28% undecided.
The poll ultimately found Farrell edging out Breed 55-45 after simulating the ranked-choice process, though the memo noted that "with a sizable number of undecided voters—especially for second and third choices—that simulation is subject to significant variation." Indeed, a previously released FM3 poll conducted two weeks earlier for a different moderate organization, GrowSF, showed Breed beating Farrell 51-49 in the final round of tabulations.
• WI State Assembly: Staffers for the Wisconsin Elections Commission concluded Tuesday that the far-right campaign to oust Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos had turned in enough valid signatures to force a recall election—but only if the contest takes place using the lines that were utilized in 2022. The bipartisan body is set to discuss these findings on Thursday.
The staffers' report said that the Commission would likely either set the recall primary for Aug. 6 or time to coincide with the regular statewide primary on Aug. 13, with the general election to follow four weeks later. The Commission crucially would also need to decide if the recall would take place in the old 63rd Assembly District, which Vos was elected to represent in 2022, or in the new 33rd District, where he now lives and is seeking reelection this year. Both constituencies are reliably red turf, but Commission staff says that the recall campaign failed to gather enough signatures from the new 33rd.
If Vos were removed this summer, however, his exile from the legislature might only last for a few months. The speaker lost his only primary challenger earlier this month when conservative writer Andrew Cegielski dropped out, though Cegielski remains on the ballot in the new 33rd District. The speaker faces independent Kelly Clark, who aided this recall campaign, as well as Democrat Al Kupsik, who is a former mayor of Lake Geneva, in the general election.